Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[fft] 27/9/2017 12:57

A problem is the lack of liquidity. It makes it very difficult to sell even a small number of shares without moving the price. And if anyone wanted to shift a largish number (and the house broker hasn't a buyer) then I would think it is as good as imposible. One reason why liquidity (i.e. buyers) is so poor is the lack of news. I dont expect every small activity to be mentioned (on the website or RNS), but management seem to be trying to depress expectations and activity by saying less than little. More news would provide more reasons to buy (increase holdings or new investor).I do think there needs to be a shift in attitude by management.

[pj 1] 27/9/2017 12:14

ramas- out of interest. What criteria/ calculation are you using for a 'risk adjustment'?

Id also say the 'hot money' left well over 12 months ago

[ramas] 26/9/2017 18:45

Fwiw and at risk of the devoted attacking me I think the shares are reverting to a more sensible risk adjusted level, hot money's moved on for the time being. Tuppence seems a good level to settle at.

[hallowed be thy name] 26/9/2017 15:51

650,000 shares held by a finance manager who does not seem to be there anymore

[pj 1] 26/9/2017 15:26

It's certainly not a Chart that would tempt anyone in based solely on Charting is it? Coupled with the fact such Charts can sometimes be a precursor that the Market knows something that we do not. Unnerving times. as often is the case in small caps.
However, to summarise how I see things, do Companies still do SWOT analysis I wonder, it seems a long time ago.....?

Positives
On target for y/e 2017 including cash collection.
Production capacity of £18m v's £15.7m 2017 forecast
Opportunity for late urgent orders to beat forecast
Growth targets of £20m Revs by 2020
Strengthening BoD
Improving Gross Profit
Improved MI systems

Unknowns
Any indication of Order books
2018 (&2019) targets
2018 Brexit and /or pricing pressures
Senior Management churn
Delays to contracts/ orders when spare capacity
OPEX
Financial controls ref. HY net debt (resolved post HY?)

Most of the unknowns are answered when 2018 forecasts are released as they were at the beginning of Nov. 2016, in a trading update. 5 weeks or so? Soon be Bonfire night :-)

[phowdo] 26/9/2017 14:17

Chartwise might bounce around 3.1p (61.8% fib retracement of the entire move up) otherwise there's a gap to fill around 2p. H&S pattern also targets 2p.
Not that charts really matter on microcaps but thats all there is until the next update from the company.

[1savvyinvestor] 26/9/2017 13:53

The problem here is not the sells!! It is the complete lack of buys. Every small sell seems to drop the price by 4%. Price now down 20% since the excellent interims. The only silver lining for me is that if it can drop on very small volume it can certainly rise on small volume. We just need some new buyers (or holders who sold out higher up and can't believe how much it has dropped back!!). This is an excellent small company and it is doing nothing wrong on the ground. Slipping back below 3p values the company where it was in 2015 which is insane considering the progress made.

[cockerhoop] 26/9/2017 11:55

phowdo,

No, Mark Pyrah's beneficial holding was unchanged so any sales would have to be RNS'd

[stiffybristol] 19/9/2017 17:24

I think if the directors bought at this level it would show some upward movement in the share price back to the 5-6p level. They have been buyers at over 4p fairly recently but maybe it is just the wrong time for personal reasons. I am considering buying more but there is a level where it is not always the best idea to hold too many shares incase you do need to get rid of some which looks like the case here.

Fundamentally unless there is some hidden bad news this company looks set for £16M turnover, perhaps £1.25M profit. P/E of 5 at the current levels, perhaps even a maiden dividend and a 3% yield.

[1savvyinvestor] 13/9/2017 07:39

Totally agree with pj. The problem is lack of buyers. And PEL don't seem to be making any concerted attempt to increase visibility and excitement. It feels like we are being left with a good 2017 forecast and then an expectation of £20 million turn over by 2020. Just not enough meat on the bones to excite new investors at the moment . I feel they are being too cautious with selling themselves as a company to invest in. Plenty going on on the ground . In fact I believe they are tendering for around £50 million of work. Not of course saying they will get all of it but they are a quality outfit and win some.

[fozzie] 12/9/2017 12:57

I agree, volumes are very small. Board is very quiet, I think this company is well under any pi radar at 6m market cap. Patience is a virtue they say lol, no intention to sell any and I will buy more at some stage.

[pj 1] 12/9/2017 12:50

This will sound perverse but imo its not the 'selling' that's the issue. Its mainly low volume and is what I'd say is normal 'churn'

The problem is a total lack of buyers, and there has been no bad or suspect news

Maybe its going to revist and test the break out area of 2.8p ish like so many shares seem to do, before setting off again?

[fozzie] 12/9/2017 12:46

I fear we will be buying more in the 2 to 2.5 area before long PJ. I am simply rubbish at locking in a profit. I have been in substantial profit on so many shares only to sit and watch them dribble away. I should have sold a quantity at c6p but didn't.

[pj 1] 12/9/2017 12:41

Amazingly in the almost 6 months since the highs of 6p on 17th Feb, we have only had 10 'up' days.

A 2017 p/e of x6.6

On checking Stockopedia sector averages it seems PEL is being currently valued on Price to Tangible Book, Price to free cash flow (my estimate) and Price to Sales where PEL matches the averages.

Best to Focus on £20m by 2020 imo

[fozzie] 12/9/2017 11:59

And down again. Very disappointed and surprised by share price performance here in last 6 months. Small sales but share price firmly in downtrend despite company saying all is on track. Surprising and disappointing in equal measure.

[1savvyinvestor] 08/9/2017 12:54

As far as I am aware the 20 million target by 2020 is absolutely in play . At a market cap of 6.9 this current weakness is inexplicable. Great numbers last week and at least meet end of year figures forecast . They are tendering for huge amounts of work worth millions . If they get a proportion of it the future is massively bright . My shares tucked away in isas and sipps for growth

[1savvyinvestor] 07/9/2017 09:33

There is more than a bit of stock around but if we start to get buyers they should run out fairly quickly as PEL has become ridiculously illiquid . This will mean extra buying pressure will move the price quickly back up

[phowdo] 07/9/2017 09:23

Someone lobbed out 175k below the bid after close yesterday, so there's probably some stock around.

[1savvyinvestor] 07/9/2017 09:15

The 3.5 sell was my buy so I presume all buys this morning

[1savvyinvestor] 07/9/2017 08:19

Clearly a distressed seller yesterday. Now we need some buyers!

[pj 1] 06/9/2017 14:55

There seems to be something out in the Market.

[playful] 06/9/2017 14:52

Feel for the chap that bought our activity centre.

[pj 1] 06/9/2017 14:33

Whoever the sellers are, They are not (currently) giving any reasons for selling.