Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[1savvyinvestor] 06/9/2017 13:13

Baffling!! This fall is so odd. I really cannot understand it. There just aren't enough followers of Paragon and the share price is withering on the vine. Given how well the company is doing we really need some confident communications from directors now about the direction of travel. The 2020 target of £20 million turnover is, from everything I have heard, going to be beaten. The company needs the market to buy into this. As an investment we are not seeing enough of the excitement that both PJ and I observed on the ground at the AGM.

[pj 1] 05/9/2017 12:53

I tend you use Stockopedia for research etc and I note they have yet to show any forecasts at all for 2018. I have also checked AJB, HSBC etc etc and they have the same including 2017 estimated eps.

Out of interest does anyone use any other Broker or other source such as sharescope for example, that shows any other or longer forecasts?

TIA

PJ

[fft] 02/9/2017 06:42

PJ1. Thanks for taking the time to chat to the company. I think that was caused the sell off was the lack of visibility or enthusiasm in the results for the next few months going forward. The year end is only 4 months away, so they have 2 months completed and given the nature of the business they must have a very good idea of where it is heading. But chose to be very circumspect which can be taken for uncertainty. With more repetitive and maintenance type work in the future this should be a steady riser. Not a tech style rise, but a solid play. I hope so anyway !!BTW, I think that nearly all private investor stakes of less than 3% will be in the nominees listed as over 3%. I know mine is. So free float is probably between 20-25%.

[stiffybristol] 01/9/2017 23:00

PG - yes I understand there are not many in the free float. I have over
1% now as well.

[pj 1] 01/9/2017 20:08

stiffybristol
1 Sep '17 - 17:51 - 2072 of 2073    1   0
=================================================================================
The only 'tipsheet' i've seen mention PEL was sharesmag, who I believe were touting for Business. I'm also unsure if the Company would want to attract the certain calibre of 'trader' which their Vox Markets Podcast attracted.(P&D)

Also, whilst Director buys are always welcome, it needs to be noted that since late 2015 the Directors have purchased >21m shares, 11% of the Co, in the open market. Collectively they now own 27%. Holdings >3% account for 71% of the Company and I guess that from investors I communicate with there is another 12% accounted for. Therefore, dare I say, a ''freefloat'' of 15% of shares in issue. And there lies the problem that any seller, or buyer, disproportionately affects the share price as the MM's struggle to match sellers and buyers.
Unfortunately for whatever reason buyers dried up leaving sellers to knock the share price.

That's my thinking anyway, feel free to pull it to bits.

edit-although an allowance for nominee accounts is needed which will increase the ''freefloat'' as I've called it

[dontsweatit] 01/9/2017 18:42

Great feedback and thanks for making the effort and posting. if they had included the 20 20 in the RNS then could it have prevented any nerves? agree as you say market is still overlooking this.

[stiffybristol] 01/9/2017 17:51

Managed to buy today but had to it over several lots which is a real pain.

Some Director buying at this level would give some confidence though I expect some of the tipsheets will not miss the HY results and see plenty of upside in this superb company.

I expect them to get back to the 6p territory shortly and they are still cheap at that.

The seller yesterday was probably just one person and they might have just had a stop loss that triggered the selling.

[pj 1] 01/9/2017 17:03

Hopefully some reassurance.

I have spoken to the Company today and can confirm the £20/20 target is still the goal and, imo, following HY still very much on Target.

So what contributed to the (continued) selling on the HY Results day is anyone's guess.

On a very low 2017 p/e of x7, and EV/EBITDA of just over x5, this is looking almost exceptional value. Even in the tough days of 2015 PEL was trading at x7 EV/EBITDA.

[stiffybristol] 31/8/2017 19:05

I tried all day to buy but could only manage to pick up 25,000 early in the day at 3.6p.

Most times you could sell 100,000 but not buy any, which would suggest that an order was being filled.

[1savvyinvestor] 30/8/2017 23:19

Paragon Entertainment (LON:PEL) “CorporateR21; Rating Reiterated at finnCap; With GBX 6.00 Target; Numeric Investors Boosted Its Supervalu (SVU) Holding
August 30, 2017 - By Ellis Scott

The broker have set TP of GBX 6.00 on Paragon Entertainment (LON:PEL) shares. This is 50.00% from the current stock price. In a report revealed to clients and investors on Wednesday, 30 August, finnCap maintained their “CorporateR21; rating on shares of PEL.

hxxps://wolcottdaily.com/paragon-entertainment-lonpel-corporate-rating-reiterated-at-finncap-with-gbx-6-00-target-numeric-investors-boosted-its-supervalu-svu-holding/

[stiffybristol] 30/8/2017 23:10

I must be missing something for so many 25,000 (1K) shareholders to see this company as a SELL.

Was delighted at 0736 to read the RNS and thought they might rise quickly to 6p.

Tempted to buy some more.

[csmwssk12hu] 30/8/2017 23:07

Interesting, not as bad as I thought, any lower and I may dip a toe

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 17:46

So roughly yes but Id guess they had creditors screaming at them so some cash would have exited there.

Overall (tangible)equity has increased by £330k ytd

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 17:37

Net debt finished the period at £0.88m compared with net cash at the last year-end of £0.85m. However, the cash outflow included an increase in trade debtors of £2.1m of which £1.7m was a single debtor, payment for which was received in early August.

[basem1] 30/8/2017 16:57

Am I right in thinking that...£1.7m received in August less debt of £877,000 reported end of June gives a nett cash position of £823,000 ??? TIA

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 16:21

Certainly hasn't gone to plan today. -13% before a buyer appears.

[1savvyinvestor] 30/8/2017 16:08

Paragon Entertainment
PEL: 3.55 -0.53 ( -12.88 %) delayed: 15:45PM
SummaryChartNewsTradesDirector dealsBroker views

Date Company name Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
30 Aug Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 6.00 6.00 Reiterates
20 Apr Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 5.00 6.00 Retains
28 Nov Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 3.00 5.00 Retains
14 Jun Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 - - Retains
06 Oct Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 - - Retains
23 Jul Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 - - Retains
24 Jun Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 3.00 3.00 Retains
15 Sep Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 4.50 3.00 Retains
24 Jul Paragon... finnCap Corporate 3.55 - 4.50 Initiates/Starts

Re-iterate with 6p target

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 15:31

LOL-Hopefully with a trading statement!

I cannot get a copy yet but according to sharesmag Fincapp have retained their 6p target price

[playful] 30/8/2017 14:45

I know the CEO of has M.P’s contact details but whether anything will emerge is anybody’s guess. If it does I’d like to see extra bourbon biscuits at the next AGM.

[fft] 30/8/2017 14:22

Given that most projects are overseas, the weakness of Sterling should provide an earnings boost when translated. Although project costs will also be affected, head office costs should not. So I am not sure why brexit should be cited, unless they think European firms will boycott uk firms.

[1savvyinvestor] 30/8/2017 14:17

The market as usual has deliberately misinterpreted the news. Not selling a bean until we get towards 6p

[pj 1] 30/8/2017 13:52

''We are seeing strong levels of opportunity in the market for 2018, however the market has become increasingly price sensitive and Brexit remains an uncertain challenge.''

I assumed the above statement related to 'Products' only and that the bread and butter Projects division ''We continue to see considerable demand for our talents. Our current committed pipeline provides good forward visibility, both supporting our performance expectations and improving our quality of earnings. This position, coupled with the continued development of the relationships we have with key business partners, means we are confident of achieving our growth targets.''

Am I correct or has the Market interpreted price reductions and Brexit risks across both Divisions?

[ravin146] 30/8/2017 11:49

PJ1 o/t

can you read the ZEN bb...have just raised Q on your remarks

cheers