Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 26/4/2017 16:37

16:28 RNS, Chairman buys 350k @ 4.25p.

[pj 1] 25/4/2017 13:43

Stiifybristol- Its >3% for notification.

ramas-Looks a good buy point to me chart wise, especially following good Results and a Growth Forecast. Certainly a much more Investor communicative Company than AEO, although you don't get any (10%) dividend though off course

Deferred R&D allowance and Tax Credits still to come.

[ramas] 24/4/2017 19:50

Storky ... you still in ?

[csmwssk12hu] 24/4/2017 19:15

If you look at that chart now that is the verge of a cliff, whilst your chatting someone is off loading big time, the spread has narrowed so much that says they are just trying to offload what they have at just above cost, I don't know what results you are reading but ebitda is not retained earnings what matters is how much money is there and how fast is that pot growing so ultimately shareholders can get payouts, with just over £300k retained and £1.2m in cash suggests a £4.2m mcap the turnover is irrelevant if not making net profits out of it, they have increased turnover but at what cost imho dyor

[stiffybristol] 24/4/2017 19:07

I reckon one of the directors moved in to buy 861,613 shares this afternoon.

Fundamentally the company has had a great year, it's still a small mk cap, nothing is certain, but it is strange how we all read a set of accounts differently.

Hargreaves/Lansdown are quoting the P/E at 8.9, which after today should fall to more like 7.9. In my world they made £1.19M.

At what point do you have to make a declaration as a non director shareholder to the SE? Is 3% or 1%.

[pj 1] 24/4/2017 17:16

1savvyinvestor- Yes scary figures. I always believed the figures to be

>90% of day traders get wiped out.

>90% of spreadbetters lose >80% of starting capital within 9 months.

[pj 1] 24/4/2017 17:13

csm. Stockopedia had 2016 normalised forecast eps in as 0.16 and they came in with 0.19 normalised eps so an actual 20% beat on those figures, so it wasn't unexpected. (note they differ from normalised as reported by PEL)

[1savvyinvestor] 24/4/2017 16:06

There is a very good reason short term traders on average do very badly . Just saying . What are the stats ? 95 % of day traders lose money ?

[phowdo] 24/4/2017 16:00

Bit of a panicky sell-off today considering Friday was fairly flat.
Did Shares mag update on their position or something?

[csmwssk12hu] 24/4/2017 15:40

If you get the same again next year it's over 30 times, the forecast was .48 this year then hit us with .36 exceptional a to leave .12 that's why they had a sell off and probably why they sold off in the run up to the results when they should have at least been holding or rising imho dyor

[pj 1] 24/4/2017 14:37

Well, I guess short termist's must focus on the historic p/e which is usually very high for growth stocks. Often much greater than the x22 here. I can't see the one off £300k write off of goodwill prompting this almost panic selling?

2017 estimate of 0.53 gives a forward p/e of x8.3 (x7.4 if adjusted for the net cash) So I prefer to focus on that.

Always unnerving though during a sell off I admit, strong focus required!

[csmwssk12hu] 24/4/2017 11:42

It was 28 times according to advfn on Friday saying 26 now

[basem1] 24/4/2017 11:05

300k profit on an £8m co Even with the cash stripped out 20/21 times earnings.

[hallowed be thy name] 24/4/2017 10:53

Why expensive? Please quantify. Distressed seller accepting what they can by looks

[basem1] 24/4/2017 08:16

I agree with CSM - still too expensive.

[hallowed be thy name] 22/4/2017 20:45

Good riddance to a blatant pump and dumper who previously posted 20p as his exit price and sells at less than 5p, followed by QS99 id predict. You should be ashamed of yourself. Also an investor who has no clue how to read accounts or reported earnings. I hope the threads can return to its normal constructive mode now.

[csmwssk12hu] 22/4/2017 15:00

Well good luck to you all, I've decided to sell after the results and director buy, the defining reasons being, cash £1.2m after increasing turnover significantly only walked away with just over £300k profit for a year, re occurring revenue collapsed, and forecast for this year was only just above last and that concerns me with any possible delays, I thought they would make a lot more than they did and would forecast sales more than they did and at least keep reoccurring revenue flat, with retained eps of .12p that's 40x earnings at current price, think that's why they dropped Thursday on results, good luck to those who stay in I hope you do well and I'm proved wrong

[pj 1] 21/4/2017 19:05

cfro- I agree totally that this needs a medium/ long term view.

StiffyBristol-Whilst I'd hope that 7p in 2017 is a possibility I think to value above that would need an ahead statement or another Revenue stream opening up, or other unexpected news flow, to spread Risk. I think 7p/ 8P max. is a good target short term for the information out in the Market currently.

A re-rated EV/EBITDA of x9 (from x7) is reasonable in my view which = 7p

A x14 p/e is also possible = 7p

Remember PEL are at risk of orders being delayed for reasons out of their control (although the exact opposite can happen!). Its also not that long ago that the Directors deferred their remuneration to help cash flows. I think we need to remember the Company has come a long way in a relative short period of time. The Market usually takes time to gain confidence. As yet we also do not have any indications of 2018 targets (which, for the record I fully expect to show continued growth and profitability), so a high forward p/e rating is very doubtful, coupled with no, yet anyway, recurring Revenues.

As far as I am aware the Co has continued it's apparent 'under promise' strategy from end 2015. Hopefully we can learn more at the AGM.

To compare to BOO stretched my imagination too far I'm afraid.

However, if I am wrong then the Drinks are on me!

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As an aside, Stockopedia now has PEL with a 78 Stockrank. (>80 is Buy territory). Id suspect a good HY or in line 2017 will move it well above 80 and into the Buy area, of which 70% in that category out perform the Market significantly. Please take with a large pinch of Salt!

[cfro] 21/4/2017 18:31

I would like to think this will turn in to a longer-term multi-bagger. Only £8m market cap currently and they are saying that they want to be No.1 in their sector.

This might me one of those stocks you look back in a few years and wish you had bought when trading below 10p...let alone 5p..

[stiffybristol] 21/4/2017 17:02

I added today in three lots on the strength of Mark P buying £3Ks worth. I reckon the rest of the directors will be in next week no they are out of the closed period to snap the bargain. I was expecting 7p on the news and the news was even better so should really have gotten to 8-10p.

Single figure P/E
£1.2 M Cash
Great growth stock
Directors have been buying
Infrastructure/staff recruited for expansion.

Still capped at £8,000,000. Makes no sense to me when some AIM shares are twice this on hot air. I look at Boohoo BOO and see a company valued at £2B making profits of £15M. Makes No Sense. On the same ratio Paragon would be 85p.

[cfro] 21/4/2017 07:50

Thats want you want to see - a director buy.

As i said yesterday, a real opportunity to add at this price and great to see the directors doing just that.

[pj 1] 20/4/2017 21:44

Its perhaps worth remembering that since Results were last announced in 2016 that the share price has risen 225% in less than 12 months, from 1.48 to 4.8 today, so not unsurprising in that context that there could have been ''sell the news''.

I did expect volume to be higher though on the announcement of Results (assuming no late trades are reported.)

[tlobs2] 20/4/2017 19:25

Another great day for QuePassa the queen of well timed shorts !

LOL :-)