Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[helpfull] 26/2/2023 17:32

Cor blimey, guv!

swenny, you appear to be trying to distance yourself from the 300p prediction when the share price was 150p.

It's all in your posting history.

No wonder everyone in the guild hates you. Apologise and have done with it.

Or come on board with the 10p target. You might be right for once.

Be careful.

[adxwasere] 26/2/2023 17:23

That's a quick flip tho isn't it. Think we would all do that.

[helpfull] 26/2/2023 16:58

Cor blimey, guv!

It's an off the wall suggestion. But did you consider that WH Ireland might be incorrect in their analysis?

I think it you look hard enough there might be many other disconnects between WH Ireland assessments and actual share prices.

Be careful.

[antique7879] 26/2/2023 16:14

I asked myself this question recently - What are the reasons for the current massive market discount of the WH Ireland analyst’s recent risked PANR share price?

Following a period of reflection, I’ve outlined a few reasons that may account for the market discount.

1. Speculative Risk Perception - While PANR has potentially enormous recoverable oil, further drilling and testing is required to prove resources sufficiently to attract a bid similar to the Oil Search one. I believe this could take another 18 - 24 months. I’m prepared to be patient and hope the stock does reward my patience.
2. Funding / Farm-Out Risk - PANR is not income generating and requires further funding to progress its strategy. There is also the potential for further dilution in obtaining new funding. Justin Hondris addresses these issues in the Q&A section of the recent company webinar. The various financial options and timelines outlined in the webinar make sound financial sense. I also agree with the points outlined in Forwood’s recent post on this topic.
3. Non-fundamental selling by Farallon - Farallon’s shareholding in PANR is a legacy of it previously being a lender to Great Bear Petroleum (acquired by PANR in 2019). Farallon converted its former loan to GBP into equity in PANR and has been periodically selling down its shares as a way of recouping the historic GBP debt. More recently, they reduced their share holdings from 66 million in December 2021 to 38 million in June 2022 (TR-1 notifications on the PANR website). They continued selling approximately 4.6 million shares a month and had reduced their holdings to approximately 24 million by September 2022 (I remember seeing a post with a link on Twitter in September 2022). It is possible that Farallon has now sold off all their shares in PANR (presuming they maintained a similar pace of selling). I, therefore, believe that, moving forward, Farallon selling will no longer be a weight on PANR’s share price.
4. Negative sentiment towards O&G due to fossil fuel & ESG concerns since 2008 has reduced investment appetite among oil majors and development partners. We are currently underinvesting approximately 1 billion dollars a day in oil and gas exploration. I believe this sentiment has to change to replenish the depleting oil and gas reserves. Energy stocks (beta) are positioned to do well for another 25 years to address the energy needs of the 3 billion population (and growing) in energy poverty.
5. PANR is a small-cap O&G stock listed on the AIM, with only 2 brokers covering it and as such is overlooked by equity investors. The recent attack by the shorters coupled with the issues that PANR had with the sand blockage and interim production test report, in which the market were forced to improve their understanding of condensates/NGLs, has accelerated the share price decline. However, a successful Alkaid-2 production test result coupled with less than anticipated decline rates and/or proof of concept of the ability to process and sell condensates and NGLs for the duration of the production test could change investor sentiment.

I’m not too bothered about the direction of share price travel in the short term. I do, however, enjoy reading the charts and appreciate the input from Forwood and Metalbee amongst others, including the posts that favour the bear case. After all that’s what makes the market.

I’m a fundamental investor and I remain invested for the reasons outlined in my post.

[forwood] 26/2/2023 13:15

No-one's disputing they will need cash. The question is when and how. IMO, inconceivable until after a flow test report from a stable flow. As there is 1300 ft of lateral only just unblocked, that could be anything up to 4 weeks from now. If the result is good, they may decide to hang on for a farm out. They've said they have enough cash to last several months (until the end of the year actually Bully!), so no hurry, and in a farm out, no shares for shorts to close. If they raise cash from the market, they may restrict the offer to shareholders, which excludes shorts. Furthermore in doing so, they might require share owners to withdraw their share loan from the market. Ooops!

The only sure way for shorts to get the shares to close would be from an open offer. Would Pantheon management help them out with this? Mmmm...I wonder!

[thebull8] 26/2/2023 13:14

They probably don't even have the funds to pay wages and general costs until the end of the year

[ringsing1] 26/2/2023 12:57

Trying to predict whether a raise will happen (or not) at this point borders ‘absolute̵7; stupidity !! So well done !!

[thebull8] 26/2/2023 12:12

If I had £10 for every company that said they wouldn't raise and then subsequently raised I would be very rich In fact happened to me not too long ago. Oiler I am invested in said for almost a year no raise no raise no raise, only to raise! Interested to see where he said this exactly. People can often misinterpret statements

[michaelsadvfn] 26/2/2023 11:27

Mangrove confirm they can buy x amount in the capital raise.

Meanhwile, they lock in that profit by borrowing shares from the market, fully in the knowledge they can close this position with shares from the capital raise.

Another sign the raise is close. Will be adding on Monday

That sounds too good to be true!!!

In fact it would be too good to be true should a positive RNS land before any fund raise and we’ve been told there will be no fund raise before testing has been completed.

Mangrove are betting on a poor RNS with no way of covering should good news arrive, non?

[thebull8] 25/2/2023 20:43

Tick tock tick tock There is only one person showing themselves as clueless here pal. I am actually embarrassed for you Triggered

[padamster] 25/2/2023 19:41

Bull = Pro = clueless

[thebull8] 25/2/2023 19:29

Yes so you have G&A costs and then you have operational costs. You'll be lucky to make more than a couple of mil in net profit at 750bopd. Hence why I said 1500bopd is a bare minimum

[padamster] 25/2/2023 15:38

Bull - G&A costs are 7.4m? Are you wrong again with your figures 😂.

[thebull8] 25/2/2023 15:19

Looks like you have forgot a couple of little things from your figures. D'oh! Operating expenses and administrative expenses. Ever heard of these? Even if these didn't exist that's roughly $21million a year or the cost of one well? So what, the business just stands still for 12 months till they have funds to drill Alkaid 3? Some really clueless maths here and understanding of how businesses actually work

[just one more try] 25/2/2023 13:48

Flow test are due soon.

The chances are thet they will be positive (sadly I do not ahve the certainty of the shorters).

After that tehy test, so say that there is 750BOD a salable hydro carbons. That is $60K a day, or after 100 day $6million.

I think that the market sentiment will be them very positive. Moreover, I ahve a feeling that we will see a farm out announced fairly soon, we were almost there last year....

I doubt that there would be funding issues then.....

As thebul8 says Tick tick tick tock, he doubtlessly wants to exit his short.

[thebull8] 25/2/2023 12:39

Tick tick tick tock Lemme explain to you why a venture capital/fund would be happy to add 2 million shares to their short position. Pantheon need funds. This is facts. The easier way to get funds is from the market. So they reach out to their broker and say they need to raise x amount. The broker goes to hedge funds/family offices/ institutional investors and gauges interest. Mangrove confirm they can buy x amount in the capital raise. Meanhwile, they lock in that profit by borrowing shares from the market, fully in the knowledge they can close this position with shares from the capital raise. Another sign the raise is close. Will be adding on Monday Triggered

[padamster] 25/2/2023 11:43

So is your real name thebull8? 😂😂

[thebull8] 25/2/2023 11:22

So lemme get this straight. Mangrove investment - a capital venture firm with 20 years of market experience and over $1billion of assets under management are not reading the RNSs and don't have a clue what they are doing Meanwhile, PADAMSTER, who can't even spell his own name right with his four O levels and 25 years of warehouse operative experience knows exactly what is going on despite this being his first amateur investment rodeoMkay then. How arrogant can you possible be! Triggered

[padamster] 25/2/2023 09:30

Oh dear - Mangrove have further increased their short position on 23rd from the increase on the 21st. Are they simply not reading the RNSs

Be very very careful.