Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 18/5/2022 09:57

I'm just curious to know, if it's a hatchet job and all of Alaska is pie in the sky, what his 50p target price represents

It would still equate to ~£400MM market cap

[bulltradept] 18/5/2022 09:52

The other side of the argument, no matter how different is what you need to make a market!

[probabilityofsuccess] 18/5/2022 09:48

Since the start of the week, we are more informed (about the potential and confidence in the upside), yet the price is lower.

Just view it as another opportunity.

[dhb368] 18/5/2022 09:48

I don't think anybody that manages 78 positions could ever be described as lazy, or retired for that matter.

That sounds exhausting...

[hiddendepths] 18/5/2022 09:44

Speaking from experience, most analysts are rubbish. I remember a substantial piece of research done on analysts' stock recommendations (in the days when they could genuinely offer independent views) and around 80% of analysts were wrong more than half of the time, some spectacularly so.

I was described as crazy by the head of research when I started publicly monitoring my own performance in my monthly bulletin. Despite my egging them on, no-one else followed suit.....

It's easy enough to be an expert in the minutiae of a company's operations and do detailed valuations and so on. What is much harder is calling the share price performance over the next 12 months..... Needless to say, with my performance on that metric very much in the public arena, I learned to focus on that aspect of analysis.

Which is why, scot, I have no spreadsheet on PANR and never will have. And I have none on any of the other 77 stocks in my portfolio either. Such detail gets in the way of making money, which is the whole point of all this for me at least!

btw scot is the only person who has ever called me lazy!

Happy with PANR! Very optimistic on the share price over the next year!

[dhb368] 18/5/2022 09:42

Yes PRO, you have been saying 'if it goes wrong, it will go wrong'

We all know that PRO, that is why we are invested here, because that simple fact suppresses/has suppressed the share price and that is where money is made.

Alkaid has a high chance of technical success, and commercial success in the current oil market. It is not a coin toss.

[pro_s2009] 18/5/2022 09:40

......Pantheon using expensive, multi-frac stage wells to develop site, with Alkaid-2 set to spud in July; missing target rate to develop this well “would be very negative”......


Exactly as I have been saying, Alkaid-2 fails to flow commercially and its game over, PANR will collapse like a house of cards.

[johnswan193] 18/5/2022 09:38

Pantheon New Sell at Peel Hunt With Risks Skewed to Downside

Pantheon Resources shares have surged more than 300% over the past year despite zero production, Peel Hunt writes in note initiating with a sell rating.

Analyst Matt Cooper says that while large oil volumes have been discovered at PantheonR17;s onshore Alaska acreage, doubts remain on the reservoir’s ability to flow at economic rates.

Pantheon using expensive, multi-frac stage wells to develop site, with Alkaid-2 set to spud in July; missing target rate to develop this well “would be very negative”.

Also notes that Pantheon has been attempting to farm-out Alaska since 2019 without any success.

PT set to 50p, implies a 61% decrease from last price; stock up 64% YTD and 313% over past year.

[references] 18/5/2022 09:37

A sad but perennial fact that the weak will be robbed of their assets. Do your own research and challenge those on here who are clearly deranged by virtue of the disproportionate amount of time they spend spouting negativity on a share they don’t own. Sure, there are always risks, hence the risk adjusted estimated values used by brokers, so if you can’t hack it then buy something else. As for the Peel Hunt guy, he must be using some very low assumptions on long term oil price, recovery rates, interest from farm-in partners/takeover from a major, and presumably he doesn’t subscribe to a US/Western Alliance desire for greater energy security. Would love to see that note.

[pro_s2009] 18/5/2022 09:37

Rabito, where is this CPR

[rafthorney] 18/5/2022 09:25

Yeah,i think i respect the companies expertise rather than a brokers.

[rabito79] 18/5/2022 09:24

Hopefully he is as factually inaccurate as Pro as we have CPRs for Alkaid and SMD. Although SMD remapping has taken place since CPR.

[scot126] 18/5/2022 09:20

Dear All - I've just read the Peel Hunt note. I can already see factual inaccuracies, more to follow on that count.

FYI - Peel Hunt was in the running to become PANR's corporate broker + NOMAD when PANR was departing from Arden. This was at circa 18p per share. "Big mistake. Big. Huge."

The note is, in effect, written by a guy (whom I have met) who is placing his *relatively* short duration, "in the field" sector experience up against Bob Rosenthal, Roger Young (founder of eSeis, on whom the analyst does a bit of a hit job btw, very ill-advised IMHO), Mike Smith of AHS Baker Hughes, the SoA DNR plus Lee Keeling, etc, etc.

Now I'm not saying it cannot happen, but the chances of a desk-bound guy in London without access to the raw data finding the stray thread that unravels the entire PANR geological model is pretty low, and a pretty ballsy call I have to say.

Oh, and it's also clear the note has been published without properly taking Monday's presentation into account. I suspect the PH analyst will rue his timing because he's going to have to give a nod to that presentation in future notes.

I'm relaxed, and whilst I don't discern anything "personal" in the note, some of the content is not of the style I would have been comfortable publishing, put it that way.

[bulltradept] 18/5/2022 09:17

I see Prolapse is up to his ole tricks again, he's a card isn't he....

[nan16] 18/5/2022 09:12

If the unwanted voices are already using that report, I see no downside in sharing the analyst hit/miss rates as compiled by Bloomberg for tullow.

“Performance Metrics
* In the last eight months, Peel Hunt has rated Tullow add once, hold once and buy once.
* The stock fell an average 51% in the periods rated add, fell 60% in the periods rated hold and fell 39% in the periods rated buy.
The following table shows the analyst's ratings history, the stock performance during the span of those recommendations and index comparisons:
Date Rating Price Change Percent Change FTSE 100
Dec. 17, 2019 Hold 7.55 pence - 65.38 pence -60% -23%
Nov. 29, 2019 Add 39.94 pence - 141.40 pence -51% 2.4%
Aug. 21, 2019 Buy 130.95 pence - 241 pence -39% 2%

[mlf51] 18/5/2022 08:54

Ah good, I'm assuming pro has jumped on the bandwagon ( got him filtered) which helps me believe all is well.

[chris0805] 18/5/2022 08:52

Where as your current favourite CLON has: No Production No ReservesBut you shower their BB with Ramptastic info? You are a low morals, low ethics, low life Pro. Go back under your stone

[references] 18/5/2022 08:47

Seems like he missed out a nought somewhere in his spreadsheets.

[pro_s2009] 18/5/2022 08:47

I am sure he has all the same concerns I have.

[cbaron1] 18/5/2022 08:45

Can't see the note, but here's the author's biopic on the Peel Hunt website.

"Matt Cooper joined the team in 2018 and was ranked 3rd in the 2021 Institutional Investor (Extel) Survey. Prior to joining, Matt worked at UBS as an Associate Director in Oil Equity Research. Matt started his career at BP where he worked as a Geoscientist for 7 years. Matt has also worked at the UK’s Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and has a Masters in Geology and Geophysics from Imperial College."

Appears to have the right creds in spite of his alarming views.

[nan16] 18/5/2022 08:35

I could only see a summary on Bloomberg, and I’m not gonna share here, as it would give a lot of voices unwanted weight.
But again if his Panr calls are anything like his tullow calls, we have nothing to worry about.

[nan16] 18/5/2022 08:26

His name is Matt Cooper and is a fan of Tullow it seems. Just checked his historical calls on that name. Let’s hope his call here is as successful with the same timing and we are golden