Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[deepcut] 18/5/2022 08:05

I see Peel Hunt has started PANR coverage with an immediate sell rating 50p target. WTF !!!! Who is the numpty that wrote this rubbish where have they been hiding last 12 months ????

[officerdigby] 17/5/2022 20:02

Indeed the way it is described Aug 2021 presentation Alkaid 2 is nailed on straight down the red bricks even passing by Alkaid 1 for extra security.


Thanks all for making me brush up on the back log of Webinars. And to Scotty (the good side) and Spangle for the extra insights!

(All watched at 1.5x with lots of FF'ing - Jay sounds normal to me at 1.5x).

[bit coin] 17/5/2022 18:31

After last night's presentation of course It will flow as expected :) imho !

[hiddendepths] 17/5/2022 17:59

Everyone knew it would be a positive presentation. It didn't disappoint. But some trady types as ever bought ahead in order to try to garner a quick profit.

Expected good news nearly always produces a share price fall in the short term.....

I quite often buy more on such drops as the news gives more confidence in higher share prices down the line and a lower price makes it an even better bet.

Now will Alkaid flow as the company expects? That is one share price move that is impossible to call!

[rafthorney] 17/5/2022 16:19

I,m not loving it! Did we announce a duster and i missed it?

[dv01] 17/5/2022 15:48

Loving this fall, great opportunity to increase my position and I am taking advantage. Thought they would be way higher today.

[scot126] 17/5/2022 11:38

Noted and understood, Spangle93.

Thank you very much for your expert thoughts in response to yesterday's presentation. By necessity, I outsource this part of the PANR investment case to management, whom I judge to have earned that trust. It is *always* interesting to read your considered views on these matters.

[chrysalis99] 17/5/2022 11:26

Thanks Spangle, extremely comprehensive. I'll need to reread it a several times to fully digest its contents.

[soggy] 17/5/2022 11:21

And this, Spangle, is why we truly value your input to this BB! Thanks.

[bit coin] 17/5/2022 11:20

I thought Ed Duncan presented well and brought a touch of gravitas to Proceedings . He ably supported Mike in making the Math understandable for laymen like myself. In particular they bolstered our enormous discovery and made it more believable by comparing with other discovery's and simply proving that we have something that is not only huge but is also of higher quality in its porosity and movability.Good to see that the market seems to be waking up this morning!

[spangle93] 17/5/2022 11:12

Scot, ref yesterday evening's posts - I took officerdigby's post as a genuine question, especially as vertical and horizontal reservoir heterogeneity in fan systems are important considerations. However, as it took me a few minutes to write what I considered was a helpful answer, I wasn't aware of your contemporaneous reply to OD, which appears to precede mine, until I'd posted. Sorry if it seemed as a result that I was also incorporating a response to you.



Chrysalis 26339 "It's difficult for a layman to get one's head around the technicalities of the latest presentation. My interpretation was that they are using fairly comprehensively measured datasets in standard industry methodologies to generate their models (as reported) and that taking different approaches leads to similar conclusions. Would my interpretation be about right??"

Hi, sorry for the delay in responding. The webinar on 26-April focused pretty extensively on the operational season, and on what had had been learned to verify of the size and nature of the container (leading to higher oil in place). However, as you'll have heard in the Q&A session, and read on this BB, the main question left hanging in the light of the truncated TW well test and the problem with a blockage in the SMD well test in Talitha-A was in respect of what could be expected from the deliverability of these wells.

So perhaps you could envisage 26-April as "Part A - how much oil is there", and 16-May as "Part B - what confidence do we have that it will flow".?


I've been trying to start with your words and simply tweak the interpretation you came up with, but it's not that easy. So I've tried to write it a different way; PM me if this doesn't make any sense.

Dr Rosenthal said in both webinars that PANR plans to work with Schlumberger to build geocellular models for the different resources that they have proven. Schlumberger has a range of products, the most widespread used in industry being the PETREL model platform [static oil in place, which may already be what Roger Young and Ed Duncan already use] and the ECLIPSE reservoir simulator [dynamic oil production], both of which I think are now incorporated into a product suite called DELFI. So Schlumberger has the modelling software, but PANR has the data, and will be the company responsible for populating and running the models, potentially with Schlumberger expert user assistance. I'm maybe over-elaborating this point, but these will be Pantheon's models, with Pantheon's knowledge and interpretation. Schlumberger provides the wherewithal.

The platform and models will incorporate all the raw and interpreted well and seismic data that has been gathered to date. But models with multiple millions of data cells are highly complex and time intensive to create and prepare for use, so new ones aren't built every couple of weeks, or even couple of years ;-) In the meantime, they are probably revising Halliburton's existing models (slide 13) with new insights.

That's addressing what I believe they currently have as reservoir simulation models. For the record, this is solely supposition based on the second half of the presentation (and Dr Rosenthal's emphasis that they are working to build new ones).


The second half therefore to me says that when Halliburton (who in terms of what products and services they offer are very similar to Schlumberger) was a co-venturer with Great Bear, they worked with Larry Britt to build models based on regional and direct information they had at the time (including PS#1 but obviously before Alkaid, Talitha and TW). Slide 14 shows the input data in the HLB models, and Ed went through how recent findings agreed with/differed from these assumptions, the main ones being that the oil is lighter and less viscous than previously assumed, i.e. better). Slide 18 confirms that the original HLB rock property case is in the same ball park, but slightly pessimistic compared to recent samples in TW, so that we can have confidence that the simulations done by HLB are still valid. [edit - it might have been insightful to have different colours to signify which wereTW samples (proximal) and Talitha samples (distal)) Slides 15-17 show the model output based on that original input data.


The first half of last night uses different public domain industry references to verify that they aren't blowing smoke with these original simulations in slides 15-17.

Slide 6 uses quantitative information for a proposed well into TW to calculate the OOIP accessed, and from that, applies typical pressure depletion recovery factors (10-15%) to work out oil recovery per well on a theoretical basis. [Slide 7 verifies that 10-15% recovery isn't unreasonable for fields with Brookian properties, based on Arps' empirical studies]

Slide 9-10 show that if you plug key Brookian fan parameters, and the same proposed well properties, into two industry spreadsheet models, the expected mark up of production rate is multifold higher than achieved on test, as you'd expect; the two methods however provide quantification of that markup.
Slide 10 is interesting, in that it says the anticipated rate of decline of production (flow rate of 1/3 IP after 2 years) is midway between a Prudhoe bay type reservoir with less decline and the tight oil sands of the Permian and unconventional plays referred to later slides, in which 50% of reserves might be recovered in the first 12 months.

Meanwhile, slide 12 really just amplifies this, by showing that a Permian multi-fractured "Bone Spring" formation well is economic at $30 and delivers about 1MMbbl, so with porosity in the Brookian significantly higher, and permeability around 100x higher, there is every reason to expect our wells to be (more) commercially successful - or have a greater comfort factor of success, depending on your viewpoint.

HTH

[chris0805] 17/5/2022 10:17

Same same...

[quazie12] 17/5/2022 10:12

Johnswan I tried to access it at 4:58pm and couldnt. I did access at 5:01. Hard facts are that anyone who claims to have listened at normal or fast speed and is posting criticism of the presentation here at 5:17pm just isnt credible. Sad you are reduced to throwing your defence into the ring

[rideacockhorse] 17/5/2022 09:10

Ooh thanks for the great tip Pro. Before selling all my Pantheon shares to fund this stunning opportunity can I just check the spelling of the EPIC code with you please? Is there definitely an 'L' in it?

[dv01] 17/5/2022 08:07

Great presentation last night. Strap yourselves in for the ride!

[pro_s2009] 17/5/2022 06:53

Just for maxxy1 this is 😘😘😘😘8536;


If you dont like an O/T post, then ignore this.

A little O/T post for those that love a high risk high reward "punt" as I do. I know many people hate these boom or bust plays, but a lot of us love lottery tickets. The previos high risk baby EME failed, this is the next one for the do or die moment.

So, the new kid on the block is CLON (Clontarf) who have a 10% stake in the massive Sasanof-1 well due to spud in a weeks time.

CLON up 40% yesterday, so the hot money is moving in, however the market cap is only 14 million even after yesterdays rise - so it remains "cheap".

P50 figures for Sasanof-1 are

24 TCF & 1.1 Billion bbls of condensate in place

7.2 Tcf gas and 176 Million bbls condensate recoverable

(Best case is 17.8 Tcf and 449 Million bbl recoverable)


Its a 10 bagger drill, the potential is summed up by Alex Parks in this presentation he did very recently (he is the CEO of one of the partners in the drill)



.

There is great demand for more gas and condensates to keep the NWS LNG plants running and the success case here should result in a major snapping up the discovery to develop it asap.

Sasanof-1 is in the IHS list of the top 20 high impact wells.

Value of Sasanof-1 in the success case would be around 11 billion A$. And CLON would have 10%. Market cap today is just 14 million pounds.

Its a 10 bagger drill, result should be around mid June, if you like this kind of thing take a look, and if not, so be it.

[johnswan193] 16/5/2022 22:44

Seems Scotty thought todays webinar was live.

Just to clarify:

1) It was available prior to 5pm.
2) As it was pre-recorded it was possible to skip or forward to any part of the recording as soon as it was published.

[madd_rip] 16/5/2022 21:33

Very interesting, just like this evening's presentation, (will watch tomorrow), awaiting with baited breath for the commencement of drilling this summer and all it entails. Could be a doozy!

[btgman] 16/5/2022 20:57

For someone who has followed the Pantheon story from before Alaska days I found today's presentation most informative perhaps more so for those who have followed all their previous webinars. What is very clear is how much detail they go in to and the depth of the information has been built of many years of this journey. It is further enhance by the fact they are having their numbers externally reviewed.

Having watched today's webinar there was a significant amount of modelling data to take it but it is more than clear that based on conservative modelling i.e. the lowest end of likely results this will be hugely profitable. Put in a 15% recovery factor and it goes off the scale Api 35 to 38 likely to add further and that's all before anyone starts talking 20,000 foot laterals.

Based on todays info pay well pay back is in the 6 month timeframe

This is a majors dream I suspect once Alkaid 2 has drilled we will be subject of some bid activity if not sooner.

Current share price is a fraction of broker notes and even lower v where risked based valuation is.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[officerdigby] 16/5/2022 19:49

Getting weird now Scot dear boy.

It was, I thought, a reasonable question.

All the rest is in ye'wee'ead

POS I think it would be my last question your honour.

Not a fast one. It played fast. It was recorded. first data/model was at 5 mins. Saw the slides b4 the the presentation was posted.

Ah I remember now all the references to Permian made me think of how fracking uses up its prime locations first and later moves on to less good areas with steeper declines.

They must have taken all this into consideration I concede.

They just have to get the right spot with Alkaid 2.... It's that simple.

Love the detail of webinar though. No idea how it will play in market.

Interesting poster on Twitter calling out the vertical fracks in Alkaid log. That would blow the doors off, Alright!.
No t sure what they could do with the excess production? (phone a major?)...

[probabilityofsuccess] 16/5/2022 19:33

So what’s the next most logical question after the logical question you’ve just asked……and the one after that please? Would like to hear and get answers then we can get to the crux of your inferred concern with the likes of Spangle here now. Cheers 👍