Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/1/2022 11:59

It’s my view that US market participants may have a different perspective.

[johnswan193] 07/1/2022 10:53

OD - "the 78p effect" is not directly based on the bondholder derisking, and more about how the market anticipates they may act above that level. For that reason I don't see market participants willing to pay much of a premium above that level pre-drill results knowing the bondholder has the ability to sell into any strengthening. The Farallon situation complicates it further - assuming they remain a seller they may also sell into any strengthening to prevent a triggering of any action by the bondholder that could result in them competing for supply capacity.

Maybe not a popular view but I have a feeling the initial flow test at the BFF will be really up against it to impress the market. Anything other than a conclusively positive result will materially adversely impact the SP, and even with a good outcome a supply of shares from the bondholder and/or Farallon may result in the initial share price rise being less than what otherwise may be expected. In either case, with an overdone drop or underdone rise I think there's potential for a very good buying opportunity after the first results have been announced.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/1/2022 10:37

Each zone should be reported separately, as Forwood said earlier, because each zone is material, but I don’t believe the BoD will publicly announce specific flow rate expectations for each zone prior to testing.

[officerdigby] 07/1/2022 10:32

If they announce every zone there will be a 'crazy' swing... For sure. I think they wait till one flows and bundle then together...Not sure if curet share price is down to the 78p bonders derisking. The JS theory..Or just holders who have learned from previous PANR drilling campaigns derisking.Perhaps the plan is de-risk. And wait for PANR to 'explain' why the results are any good. WRT 2021 seems like a plan? All this....'it would be incredibly positive if we have a flow from a zone' posts...Surely the reverse is most true?.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/1/2022 10:31

Not sure those expectations are going to be met personally - you may want that, but don’t think it will happen to the extent you wish.

Useful, though, that you’ve shared your expectations with this board. If you haven’t done so already, I’m sure someone will pass the message on to the BoD

[sirmark] 07/1/2022 10:12

Agreed John a clear definition for each zone at each location of the companies expectations is vital to get out in to the market place so we don't get crazy swings in the share price while the information is absorbed incorrectly.

[johnswan193] 07/1/2022 09:51

Expect the difference is the SFS.

If the Jan webinar goes ahead as Scot suggested, it will important that they give some market guidance on what to expect from testing and the sort of flow rates etc. that would represent good results.

Would be disappointing to hear management celebrating success or further derisking but with the market reflecting otherwise. i.e. being satisfied with the flow for the Talitha sub-optimal location but the market treating it as inconclusive or failure.

[rabito79] 07/1/2022 09:29

I think we need to be careful with nomenclature and numbers. My understanding is 480MMBO relates to the SMDB (404MMBO) and the Greater Alkaid (76.5MMBO) which indeed are both in the Alkaid Unit, but the SMDB is not exclusive to the Alkaid Unit.However I admit to being confused by what constitutes the 2.2B number. The confirmed numbers I have are as below (all MMBO):Alkaid - 76.5SMDB - 404BFF Upper - 210BFF Lower - 1,200Total - 1,891Therefore I am still missing 309MMBO from the 2200MMBO number which I assume comes from the SFS and SMDA/SMDA. We know SMD-A and SMD C are smaller than 218MMBBO (483-265) which was detailed in the SMDB resource release. I assume therefore the remainder is coming from an approximate number assigned to SFS and SMDA/C. Hopefully, given Pantheon's post Texas conservatism, this is a number which has room to increase. Let me know if I have misunderstood anything.

[chris0805] 07/1/2022 08:40

Does anyone know if we should expect another road closure for the coiled tubing test rig for Talitha A? Is it likely to have followed NC rig #3 during the 4-5 January closure or is it small enough not to need a dedicated road closure? Thanks in Advance... GLA C

[forwood] 07/1/2022 08:40

I expect that you will get your wish Winner, as each result will be significant for the SP, for good or ill.

[winner66] 07/1/2022 08:24

I’m just hoping that the test results are released zone but zone not as a job lot at the end . Each zone should be treated as an independent success or failure. Otherwise how on earth can fair value be attributed. The next RNS should give clarity , so not long to wait .

[brian boru] 07/1/2022 08:19

Does anyone amongst the O & G professionals who share their knowledge be willing to take a guesstimate on when it's likely the first drill result will be announced this winter. ?Tia

[winner66] 07/1/2022 08:17

I’m not certain as to aspects of funding and the conversion of shares etc etc , but for us to be where we are share price wise , ie circa 80p at this particular point is a complete shock , given all that sits in front of us.

[bobbiedazzler] 06/1/2022 23:27

Correct! ?

[btgman] 06/1/2022 22:56

References apologies for the late reply the 480mmboe recoverable relates specifically to Greater Alkaid part of Pantheon assets which currently we have a contingent resource on from Lee Keeling associates of from memory 78 million barrels of oil. This being talked of as 480 million is hugely significant in its own right. Remember Alkaid has all year round drilling and is close to the pipeline and the asset likely to bring production and cash flow in the summer. Drill costs will be lower and at which point the economics at Alkaid are stunning especially given the current oil price but then we should further all consider the implications given the anticipated higher price later this year which is pointing to a company making valuation for Pantheon on Alkaid alone.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[references] 06/1/2022 18:10

Thanks Bobbie. If recoverable oil in the ground can be sold at $3 or more a barrel to a Major then things already look interesting. I’m looking forward to seeing how this winter drilling season goes. Could be amazing.

[sirmark] 06/1/2022 17:57

This summer !

[bobbiedazzler] 06/1/2022 17:46

The 480 refers to just the Alkaid prospects, while the rest is made up of various other prospects further away from the pipeline. Alkaid has flowed, and should therefore produce revenue from this well next summer

[sirmark] 06/1/2022 17:38

2022 glad to see you back, I think you'll be right about this being the year :)