Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[helpfull] 15/4/2024 09:08

Cor blimey, guv!



Worth watching to the end.

Be careful.

[helpfull] 15/4/2024 08:22

Cor blimey, guv!

"Thinking further - there must be an excellent chance that FID for Kodiak will go ahead sooner than slated in presentations.
What stops the Company declaring FID for Kodiak now?
It’s not that they don’t have commercially recoverable oil.
It’s Money"

Comedy hour.

I think it might be the need for a further 3 appraisal wells, at least.

Does nobody listen to Hobbsy anymore?

I think they will struggle to get FID in 2028.

Be careful.

[bobbiedazzler] 15/4/2024 07:24

Could be another problem for the Mangrove short this morning as 88e reports flowing light oil from its Hickory test of SMD-B just south of the Pantheon acreage.

[bobbiedazzler] 15/4/2024 07:22

88e reports flow of light oil from Hickory this morning. Goid news

[attyg] 14/4/2024 17:27

Thinking further - there must be an excellent chance that FID for Kodiak will go ahead sooner than slated in presentations.
What stops the Company declaring FID for Kodiak now?
It’s not that they don’t have commercially recoverable oil.
It’s Money.

What can we reasonably expect regarding funding now?

Possibly Ahpun drilling commencing up to a year earlier than plannned - thus producing money and getting to break even sooner.
An agreement being signed with AGDC in the near future providing PANR with access to ~$250m of reserve backed lending able to be drawn down against drilling wells.
DH’s initial plans require $120m to get Ahpun to cash flow break even, so he will have plenty up his sleeve to develop Kodak whenever he wants.
Ahpun is likely to deliver better than base case oil flow - so quicker for Ahpun to get to break even. We await the IERs on the Ahpun fields - imminently.
The NSAI report highlights the newly acquired Kodiak leases are capable of producing much better flow rates than in the base case - which in any case provided payback within one year! So less cash drain than initially anticipated for each new well.


Of course we can hopefully look forward to all the capex costs being significantly less than base case once the gas pipeline is established which will avoid the need for almost every third well being a gas re-injection well.


All in all, I think DH will be motoring to get these fields producing asap.
As he said some time ago - words to the effect - once the market recognises what PANR will deliver, the share price won’t care about shorters - it will jump.


Basically, the gas deal - if it gets signed - totally changes the landscape for PANR

[arcadian] 14/4/2024 15:08

Thank you Atty

[attyg] 13/4/2024 19:26

What is the final investment decision?
Final Investment Decision means the decision to be made by the Members, after review of the Feasibility Study and Permit Approval pursuant to Section 12.4 of the Agreement, as to whether to proceed with a Development Program and Budget and Project Construction Contracts to place the Properties into production.

FID for Ahpun is set for 2025 - according to the most recent AGM presentation.

However, if PANR signs agreements with the AGDC for gas and following receipt of the recently commissioned IERs from backed up with updated NSAI overall report - all possibly concluded and signed by 30 June 2024 - might Ahpun FID be brought forward?

Surely FID on Ahpun is an internal company decision, so if the IERs state Ahpun is commercial (the IERs are also to report on the economics of the fields as well are their size) and we have signed an agreement with AGDC for the gas enabling PANR to obtain reserve backed financing of up to $250m – what is there to stop the BoD declaring FID on Ahpun in June 2024?

Even if the oil didn’t flow, we know the gas will flow, so PANR should have no problem delivering the gas – and make money just on the gas.

Did anyone else think it curious that DH said - I hold my hands up - I could have been more explicit about the link between the discussions with AGDC and funding.
(Frankly I don't know how he could have provided such a steer without the AGDC being more open and forthcoming about their plans.)
He said it twice. Was he giving us a message?
DH confirmed that no other oil fields are in a position to deliver gas directly into the proposed gas pipeline – apart from Ahpun – at this moment. Not only is our gas substantially below the 3% max CO2 allowable for entry to the pipeline, but Ahpun is directly below where the gas pipeline will be located.
Thus a planned gas pipeline FID due in 2025 was not unreasonable as there were issues in the AGDC getting access to suitable gas. However, now that Ahpun not only has the right gas but does not require further infrastructure to link it to the pipeline, plus the expectation that the AGDC and PANR could conclude negotiations on the supply of gas by 30 June 2024 – might the AGDC bring forward their FID? After all, it will take a couple of years to build the pipeline and Alaska needs the gas – so the sooner they start….
AGDC has all the permits to build the pipeline – they just needed the gas! Once they have the gas supply resolved, they can then get the financial support – the business case is overwhelming, so a simple enough process to get the funding.

I understand Biden is supportive of the export LNG facilities and thus the internal delivery of gas to the south and central Alaska.
With the Presidential election only a few months away, it would be unsurprising if the go ahead on the development of the gas pipeline was not accelerated through before November allowing Biden to take credit for this infrastructure development while campaigning.

Maybe I am joining too many dots - but I have the strong impression that things are moving faster than is being publicised. Again, maybe my wishful thinking.

Supremely confident - was what I took away from the webinar.

Supremely confident they have some 3+ billion barrels of recoverable oil over the whole acreage.

Importantly for us, supremely confident they will have the financial resources to develop sufficient wells till the company is cash flow positive – quite possibly without the need for any further placing of shares.

[content5827] 12/4/2024 19:07

The reports on various news providers about Biden’s effort to block Arctic drilling seems to me to be potentially very welcome news for Panr.

[helpfull] 12/4/2024 17:28

Cor blimey, guv!

What part of 1.53% do you not understand?

Be careful.

[just one more try] 12/4/2024 17:05

If helpfuls figures are correct on the Mangrove short. They seem to total about 10.4% of the share capital

Mangrove needs to buy about 98 million shares where the price has been moving up - and if there is any positive news on funding, the last real barrier. The share price could jump back to the time before there were concerns and the share price was £1.30 - without Mangrove buying.

The purchase of 98 million shares on top - could be interesting..

JOMT