Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rideacockhorse] 26/4/2022 15:37

Two hours until the main event....

To make these webinars more exciting, I think Jay should enter in the manner that these top boxers do, like Tyson Fury, with some big booming song playing as he comes into the room and takes his seat to the roar of the crowd.

Any suggestions for the song? Journey's Don't Stop Believing?

[fred buckle] 26/4/2022 13:00

"Sell in May" stopped having any seasonal relevance once the UK market became part of a global one. However with the backdrop of the Ukraine war, huge parts of China locked down (and 20% of container ships stuck in ports worldwide) and the Fed about to raise rates again- at least 3x 0.5% rises expected in quick succession- the outlook for global growth is poor, witness the IMF's downgrade this month. Thus this may be a year where for markets, generally, the sell in May idea may well be right.

Despite all of that I view PANR as a very special situation with very significantly more upside than downside so will remain a very firm holder.....and, for me, I hold a lot.

[hiddendepths] 26/4/2022 12:28

"Sell in May and come back St Ledgers day (or September to most people)."

St Leger 10th September this year at Doncaster. Origin of the expression is that the market used to be dominated by the toffs, many of whom would check out in May for the summer to do the season, taking in Henley, Wimbledon, Ascot and so on. The final event of the season is the St. Leger, after which the rich and powerful would return to the City and pick up their business activity again.

I don't think the market is dominated by these people any more, and those who fit the bill don't tend to take the whole summer off anyway. It's nothing to do with ledgers and I don't think it's a relevant saying any more! Yes, the market's often a bit quiet but that doesn't suggest that selling in May is a guaranteed formula for success!

[dhb368] 26/4/2022 11:58

Lol PRO.

15 May 2022 - Construct Alkaid #2 gravel driveway and drill pad
1 June 2022 - Construct staging pad and begin staging equipment.
1 July 2022 - Mobilise rig to Alkaid #2 and spud

Plenty happening to keep May and June interesting.

Not to mention further details about SFS and discussions with a partner news can drop anytime.

I think that I will stay invested this summer. After all summer 2020 saw the price increase by 230% and summer 2021 by a mere 100%.

[pro_s2009] 26/4/2022 11:28

There is also a lot of "sell in May" fear in the markets now feeding off inflation and interest rate rises and China lockdown.

Sell in May and come back St Ledgers day (or September to most people).

But PANR is more a sell in late April/May and start buying back in June/July ahead of Alkaid 2, once the next conversion of 78p shares is done in June and sold into what will be a summer doldrum month of June.

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/4/2022 11:15

Thanks for replying HD.

[hiddendepths] 26/4/2022 11:07

Pos - I had already sold my trading tranche of 10% at 148 earlier in the month so was reduced to my core holding. I don't play with the long term positions for a modest percentage gain as I'm a fundamental long term investor and only trade to add a bit of extra performance - I'm not a trader by nature as I find trading too anxiety-provoking. There's too much risk of a sudden upward movement playing with a core LT holding and I hate the idea of missing out after investing for a year or several by messing around!

references - "It must be that some in the market anticipated these sorts of figures and saw the upgrades as a “meh” moment." It's more that those with a trading mentality buy in anticipation of a good announcement and sell into it for a quick profit! Unless the MMs see them coming, of course, and drop their bid prices first! Remember that MMs are advised by (the few) market-savvy analysts and warned about what to expect in terms of likely buying and selling. It wouldn't surprise me if several MMs were short of stock when the RNS came out in anticipation of profit-taking however good the RNS was. This presumably allowed them to balance their books for a profit.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 26/4/2022 11:00

"I will do my own valuation in the days post webinar but would strongly argue that we are very significantly undervalued and for the share price to have remained flat on the back of such a large upgrade was/is incorrect."

My target? £10.93. I lost count after that. It'll do for now, won't it? ;)

[gorgeousgeorge01] 26/4/2022 10:57

"Pro, it’s been a simple money maker from 20p and below for many people. Much easier than your game and you get to maintain your integrity."

Shake your money maker!

[pro_s2009] 26/4/2022 10:55

The market will only value the hype and promise so much.......and its now a Billion Pound market cap wtih zero production, zero revenue, debts to pay back, and a convertible bond at 78p a share issuing price, and of course........ZERO proven commercial reserves.

They need to start proving commercial flow rates......real proof.......Alakaid 2 will prove it....or prove failure.......thats the key event for some success or real failure and share price collapse ahead.

The webinar is just going to be hype and back slapping and "wow" its so big and so good...with lots of "you know....."

[rabito79] 26/4/2022 10:51

Well I am happy to admit I have no clue what will happen with the price today, and no clue what will happen with the price tomorrow. Hindsight management is a pretty easy game to play.I would imagine the recent run has been supported by the recent purchase of ~3% of the company by one buyer. Well done to all those who correctly called that.I have followed Pantheon for probably more than 5 years and can tell you I was surprised by the scale of the upgrade. Not that I didn't think this would happen over time, more didn't think we would say ~50%-60% increase in the numbers so quickly. But maybe 'the market' (which can be driven by many or a few individuals at any one time) knows more than me about Pantheon.With the upgrade out I am hoping tonight we will hear more about the commercial aspects of the project and why Pantheon are so pleased with the limited flow test results. If we do I can tell you I will have no idea how the market will be react. But I am sure for some it will be as they expected after the event.

[pro_s2009] 26/4/2022 10:50

Exactly Brian Boru.

[references] 26/4/2022 10:39

If a guaranteed fall on news was on the cards then why didn’t the sellers sell in the 140s before the news? A bit of a simplification, but profit taking after such a rise is to be expected of course. As for no move up by a further 7 times?, I actually do think this is possible. If you multiply the current resource by a conservative 15% recovery rate and put a value of $3 per barrel, you are at about $9bn, or £7.1bn. Not so crazy. IMHO.

[bobbiedazzler] 26/4/2022 10:31

The parochial nature of some on this board astonishes me. Yesterday there was a big sell off on almost every index - FTSE100 off 1.88 per cent - AND the oil price was down 6.16 per cent. It's a market recession wobble.

[winner66] 26/4/2022 10:26

I really don’t understand why there’s such surprise to the weakness in the share price following yesterday’s RNS. It obvious that anticipation always creates strength and results produce weakness. But rather than bicker why not just be humble and feel for those that bought yesterday. There’s a backdrop of a bond holder. There are also numerous retail investors who simply don’t understand investment and prefer short term strategy ( most will lose) . If management are correct then the long term picture is fabulous. But not the 7 times increase in share price that PANR has witnessed going from circa 20 p to today’s price of circa 140p . Anticipation wins every time . Unless there’s a buyer .

[rafthorney] 26/4/2022 10:21

I certainly got my timing wrong but in for the end result anyway.

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/4/2022 10:17

Thanks hiddendepths and no need to get your coat.

What I struggle to understand is why you despair at others (in your view) misinterpretation of the market yet, you actively choose not to profit from your own insight.

You’ve called out others for not understanding the market, yet you chose not to sell into the news despite believing you would make money from doing so (you explicitly stated you didn’t sell any and you also explicitly stated you expected certain price action).

So, can I ask (and I’ll leave it there if you are able/want to share your thoughts), what stopped you from selling into the spike and buying back later? Perfectly sensible approach if you have the knowledge, experience and conviction.

Everyday is a learning opportunity, so would be good to learn. Cheers.

[references] 26/4/2022 09:56

Agreed BTG. Always a mystery to me how resource updates regularly seem to be met by weak share prices. Seen it so many times before. It must be that some in the market anticipated these sorts of figures and saw the upgrades as a “meh” moment. On the other hand the convertible bond holder is still locking in phenomenal bond performance in an otherwise brutal bond market so they are bound to be making hay big time, especially as they must be seeing opportunities in their bond market elsewhere after such falls. Really looking forward to this evening though. Long term picture looks fantastic. Roll on $3+ per barrel recoverable. GLTA

[hiddendepths] 26/4/2022 09:42

Pos - you asked for a rather personal take.....I currently have 77 holdings and don't have the time or the inclination to try to educate on any one particular board, I'm afraid, and I don't post at all on most of them. I'm trying to make a living here, which is my priority. Not that many people want to hear anyway, which is a further disincentive.

Yesterday morning I posted this - it got one down vote and no up votes. It's not what people want to hear. Now that's fair enough and I don't criticise anyone for that but there is one major takeaway which is why I used the word "expected" 3 times in quick succession.

hiddendepths25 Apr '22 - 08:28 - 25681 of 25729 Edit 0 0 1

Market move roughly as I expected on expected upgrade.

What moves markets is news that's not expected. It doesn't care about underlying value! It knows "the price of everything and the value of nothing!"





As for my holdings here fwiw - I have my intact core holding, which ain't going noplace because I realise and understand the underlying value of what the company believes it has got! But I'm willing to add 10% or so on weakness - I thought about doing so in the 130s this morning but almost certainly will act if there's a post webinar dip on the expected barnstormer of a presentation, but that's more of a trading tranche, which I would sell on an appropriate rally.

I'll get my coat....

[brian boru] 26/4/2022 09:31

price movement today suggests that the market is saying we know all there is to know about your monster field that is yet to be fully tested, and until you complete the testing don't expect the market to take you higher.

As a long term holder I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the webinar produces a rabbit from the hat and that the bod advise that multiple predators are interested in us and that the £7 per share mentioned yesterday is a good starting price for negotiations to begin.......................as I say fingers crossed, but without such new news I see the share price drifting until the next concrete block is put in the wall, which will probably be the summer drilling campaign!

[chris0805] 26/4/2022 09:13

Pro_S2009,Perhaps you can post when you make your next 100k share purchase Pro_S2009, so we can all benefit from your magical skill of always buying at the dip, then you can also tell us when you sell so we can all sell our 100k shares for our massive gain, as you always sell right on the peak.... Thought not...

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/4/2022 08:53

Hiddendepths - if you “despair of this board” perhaps you could:

1) help educate with your knowledge and experience, explaining your rationale, not just saying “it’s simple”

2) do so in a more positive, engaging manner, without denigrating people and reinforcing your own confirmation bias that you know more than others

I’m surprised you wrote what you wrote - not sure what triggered your despair, but unusual turn of phrase from you.

Separately and objectively, a few pence here or their on purchases ain’t going to make a whole lot of difference if you don’t trade. Self-evidently, buying at 20p, 30p or 70p based on fundamental analysis is profitable. Doing so without calling the intra-day movements is pretty much irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Hiddendepths - out of interest, what would encourage you to add to your holding between now and, say, June?

[pro_s2009] 26/4/2022 08:11

Well said HD.

[hiddendepths] 26/4/2022 07:59

Scot - you called the market wrong as you so often do and bought early doors when you could have bought more cheaply if you'd had an ounce of savvy about what moves markets and waited a few hours.

You just keep focusing on your fundamentals and abusing everyone who disagrees with you, especially when you're wrong. I'll just go on making money consistently by buying shares when they're low and selling when they're high. I've made an excellent living for many years from buying and selling shares, more than I ever did in my "salad" days and continue to do so.

Beware, all those who follow the false prophet, who "knows" everything about just the one company but doesn't seem to have a clue about the market and what moves share prices! He was just as passionate in the Texas days, and wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong but would NEVER admit it, even when the company nearly went bust.

Back on filter with him. That'll teach me to unblock him briefly out of curiosity!