2wild spot on - good analysis ! the net cash is always worth 100% as it will be paid out to shareholders. so the discount on the property-NAV is in fact higher than the 12%. |
Hudson quarter probably the only PCA assets to have increased in value during last three years. A bright spot in a sea of decreasing valuations.
At 220p discount 250p NAV is only 12%. Although around 37% of the current market value is in cash. With the £8.1 million loan fixed at 2.9% until mid 2026, they could do a 25% tender at 240p without any delay. Would still have £Millions left overr for refurbishments. |
Or indeed as I have suggested several times, closed the sales office, rented them themselves and just tried to sell a few a year. Not selling in bulk has obviously maximised the sales value ignoring the time value of money |
It is a real shame that the previous management team did not sell off all of the apartments to a PRS investor. |
I can see Hudson Qtr being the only asset left here at this rate still eleven to go! |
Results out tomorrow for period 30th September. Took opportunity to add at 218.76p today, as offer price briefly fell to 219p. Now looking for 255p NAV, as labors inflationary budget as pushed up uk government vond yields across the entire Curve. In turn making property look less attractive pushing down prices and increase in yields. |
The market is pricing in 150bps of BOE cuts between now and the end of Q3 2025. People looking to adjust their sterling income allocations to offset falling risk free rates will presumably be looking at real estate opportunities. I suspect the reversionary yield of 13.0pct on the PCA portfolio is too low in this regard and that remaining disposals could be well above book value. |
Received 100% cash in Wtan tender this afternoon. Reinvested most of proceeds in 740 PCA at 216.84p.
Should get NAV and cash position updates within 2 weeks and perhaps details of 2nd tender offer. |
That is fair but it is probably worth checking out the disclosures to the accounts - given the PCA strategy surely the auditor would be asking for this to be reflected in the book value of the real estate assets? |
baner. May well be right, although it's difficult to pin down the NAV, as PCA always give the gross amount of sales. You never know how much to deduct for commissions, legal fees and other expenses. |
2wild. I believe the discount is in fact a bit higher when you take out net cash, which should be valued at 100% given the forthcoming buy back. Closer to 25%. |
Picked up a few more this afternoon at just under 221p. Seem to be drifting lower on no news. Discount circa 18%. |
Smart move, I didn't honestly think they would fall back so far after the tender |
Good question Makinbuks, especially as likely to be another 250p tender before Christmas. Got most of mine taken up at 250p and have now brought them all back at an average price of 224.6p. Certainly would be nice to make an additional 10% on a second tender this year. Plus a nice dividend income while I wait. |
Who would be selling these now when you could have taken £2.50 in the tender? |
By my reckoning, following payment of August dividend. PCA now has about 42p ps of net cash Plus another 224 to 228p NAV. |
Did anyone receive the latest divi payment? Supposed to be today I haven't got mine yet |
Thank you baner |
The NAV should increase somewhat in H2, mu guess is 270p +/-. Next tender probably at same price, 250p, which will lift NAV on remaining shares a bit again. Looking good. |
But what price the suggested up coming tender offer ? |
The smaller sale (£3.5m) not due to complete until January 2025.
Odds on them still having 13 Hudson Qtr flats left by then... ;) |
Another small disposal confirmed and a couple of others in play As usual they talk with fork tongue over Hudson there were only 13 left six weeks ago yet they say they have sold a further 3 but still 13 left anyhow at least they aren't having to cut the price. Another tender offer coming later in year. |
Well I got 78.7% at Charles Stanley Direct. I've just sold the rest as these managed wind-downs never work very well. Not the best investment, but its delivered some good income to offset the capital loss. Time to move on! |
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