Palace Capital Share Discussion Threads

[elsa7878] 23/4/2024 14:36

The 2 Vue cinema sites account for approx £30 million of the remaining NAV but they've just had a 2nd bail-out in 18 months so how attractive are those sites?
Presumably the more attractive sites have gone first and therefore we should expect larger discounts to the September 2023 valuation as more sales progress. Recent ones were at a 3.7% discount (ex-York flats).
Say a 6% discount across the remaining sites.
In the interim the income pays the company costs.
So 275p total return from here?
If you buy now at 235p then you might get about a 15% return (including dividends as they simply reduce the NAV - unless it's excess income) but across what timescale and what is the downside risk?
Personally I think it's priced about right...can buy 50,000 shares no problem.

[makinbuks] 23/4/2024 09:28

Not sure why a tender offer has been chosen when a full wind up has been announced. Why not the classic issue of Redeemable B shares and distribute whatever cash they sensibly have available. Or indeed more buy backs. Surprised to see it slip back to 230p. OK it might take a while but I still thing we'll end up with £3 here (including dividends)

[2wild] 20/4/2024 12:07

My guess 25% of shares at 260p. At this price or more will take up in full and buy back in market at some point later. Probably following more property sales.

[baner] 18/4/2024 11:30

there are some high-yielding leisure assets remaining, yielding 10%++. they may take some time to go, however as they generate strong cash flow it is not a serious problem. as soon as interest rates start to decline this type of asset will get better attention.

[solarno lopez] 18/4/2024 09:31

Thanks Baner

[nickrl] 18/4/2024 08:17

Good that sales are close to underlying valuations so presumably the tender buyback will c20m. Not that familiar with portfolio to know whether this is the family silver thats been disposed of and whats left will be gettin g progressively harder to get away at valuation?

Hudson Qtr dragging on though and at this rate they will be last assets to go!!

[baner] 18/4/2024 08:00

Solarno - good thinking. Depends on at what price the tender will be. If at NAV, accept. If at 200p - do not accept.

[baner] 18/4/2024 07:58

First of all - cred to the Chairman who is really delivering here! i guess NAV is around 280p and the cash flow is very sound, offering scope for a good divi while waiting for further disposals. Excellent risk/reward. You will probably get a 20% IRR holding out for the final liquidation.

[solarno lopez] 18/4/2024 07:56

Or do we retain our shares instead of accepting the tender offer ?

[deanowls] 18/4/2024 07:50

So what’s everyone thinking on the value that is left here once the cash is returned. Are the remaining assets the cherry on top and worth sticking around for?

[lennonsalive] 20/2/2024 11:05

RGB awful company, stay well clear

[clive7878] 19/2/2024 14:36

I remember one of his legal stocks -was it RGB which was around 27p - took a turn for a worse - after a promising write up.
But very thin trading on PCA today considering the so, say potential - and we are looking at a 7% quarterly payable yield too.
Not into many stock of late only Just - a bit rocky of late - and AA4 - a stunning yield.
I do wonder whether BT has bottomed out at 1.065p - again with a 7% yield.

Simon Thompson's good tip the weekend - down 3p today - Tuesday 20th Feb.

[spectoacc] 19/2/2024 14:03

I think ST's had enough misses this past year for his tip updates to not find much traction. His Tips of the Year still do pretty well, eg TENT, but even those aren't what they were.

PCA was one of 3 or 4 from him in the recent issue, from memory.

[clive7878] 19/2/2024 14:00

Surprised that there has not been too much take off in PCA since the tip.

[spectoacc] 19/2/2024 11:09

ST covered it (again), with the usual bluster and ramping.

There's a clear route to a decent return in PCA IMO. The problem is how much other cheap stuff there is around.

[clive7878] 19/2/2024 09:52

Tipped in IC - sounds good - Surprised that there are no recent comments here.

[elsa7878] 12/2/2024 10:04

So looking through the website of their portfolio, they have sold or are selling everything bar their office portfolio which makes up 50% of the asset value. I suppose that should not be surprise but certainly makes the investment case a lot less attractive.

[elsa7878] 07/2/2024 09:03

Immaterial in relation to the value of the commercial assets. In terms of a likely return from here the question is, as the most attractive assets have been sold, does that mean future sales will be at an increasing discount to book value. With Capex and admin and listing costs assuming it takes a couple of years to sell the lot, what will be left?
260p?

[spectoacc] 07/2/2024 08:57

"Sales activity at Hudson Quarter continues..".

If by continues they mean barely has a pulse, sure. How can they still have 16 left after this long.


Edit:

November:
"Since 30 September two units are under offer for £1.2 million, leaving 16 units remaining"

Now:
" Sales activity at Hudson Quarter continues with two apartments totalling £1.4 million under offer, leaving 16 units remaining."

Implies at least one fell through, but they got another buyer for a more expensive one.

No surprise it takes months to complete sales, but there were 16 (+2) remaining in September, and there's 16 (+2) remaining now.

They'll be hoping for a strong spring selling season.

[nickrl] 07/2/2024 08:54

Struggling to off load the rest of Hudson Qtr they had two under offer at the interims and taken this long to complete. Anyhow with debt down now they are easy money so need for a fire sale yet. As long as they have cash in a decent paying overnight a/c that will help neutralise the rental loss on disposal and give enough cash to cover the divi although wouldn't be surprised if it gets reduced again. However, that's becoming less material now its about whether the assets left can be realised for more than market share price

[solarno lopez] 07/2/2024 08:06

Was there a leak of information yesterday ?

[nickrl] 04/2/2024 16:34

@pdosullivan PCA are just one of many trading significantly below NAV such that its become somewhat meaningless other than being used as a test for loan covenants LTVs.

[pdosullivan] 03/2/2024 13:28

200p seems far too low for these given the latest (end September 2023) disclosed NTA of 294p and the upcoming tender offer

[spectoacc] 03/2/2024 11:20

More Expenses PLC.