Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[keyno] 08/9/2024 20:30

Brucie5: I wish you good fortune with your investment here and in IPO and would venture to suggest you have a lot more riding on this than I have, so who can blame you if some confirmation bias - something all of us are prey to - creeps in. If you play your cards right ....... (sorry, couldn't resist that one)

I too have a stake, albeit a modest one, in IPO. I have also invested in early stage tech companies in the past - and have the scars on my p/f to prove it!

I take your point about variables but the variables which are part of, eg an investment in dividend paying Tesco are for me, easier to understand than the variables at work with companies like ONT or IPO, simply because I believe I have a faint grasp of what moves the Tesco world. I can jog along reasonably happily with that sort of uncertainty but with early stage technology which furthermore needs a ton of money thrown at it, usually more than once, all things are less certain. Yes, risk/reward, I know but how much risk? How many rewards so far?

Anyway, good luck to all holders as well as Brucie5 and thank you bamboo2 for all your hard work here in helping to keep us informed.

[bamboo2] 08/9/2024 17:45

An Analytical Eye on mRNA
How a new collaboration looks to improve analytical testing for mRNA products

07/08/2024 | 5 min read | Technology


Credit: Supplied by Interviewee

Messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules have become one of the hottest areas of drug development. mRNA allows the human body to produce almost any functional protein or peptide, which means it is also a promising tool for preventing and treating many intractable or genetic diseases. In vitro transcribed mRNA can be manufactured quickly and cost-effectively – and advances continue to be made.

As with any drug modality, analytical techniques are crucial to further development. To help improve the analysis of mRNA products, Lonza and Oxford Nanopore have teamed up on a new test for determining multiple critical quality attributes of mRNA using one platform. We spoke to Torsten Schmidt, Head of mRNA Business Unit at Lonza, and Chris Brown, Vice President of Strategic Programmes at Oxford Nanopore, to learn more...
[...]
h ttps://theanalyticalscientist.com/fields-applications/an-analytical-eye-for-mrna?utm_source=twitter

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2024 17:02

It's noise to some of the funds. Look at the amount they have invested in Ox Nano vs fund size.

Some likely have a mandate to also drop a holding when it falls below some % of their total fund value and Ox Nano has certainly fallen for Delphi. PI thinking applied to large international funds doesn't work and especially when a loss might be useful to offset gains elsewhere for tax. There is little loyalty, it's not personal, perform or get dumped.

[bamboo2] 08/9/2024 16:18

Afaik, Oracle aka Ellison aka Delphi have been reducing their holding recently.

Started with 35,294,117 [4.44%], recently reduced to 28,265,044 [3.004100%], allowing for dilution.

Unfortunately they are following the pattern that was established here shortly after the floatation. One significant holder after another changing their minds about the co. Given that these are supposed to be professional investors, it's odd that they didn't choose to sell higher up.

==================

Since the co became awash with cash, there's been some good work going on in the tech dept over the past few years, and after the new ASIC sees the light of day, I am anticipating some announcement on solid state nanopores.

[cousinit] 08/9/2024 15:51

I think there were a number of drivers for ONT benind the Novo investment:

- adds another heavyweight name to the register with significant sector expertise

- strengthens the balance sheet so more potentially fruitful avenues can be pursued (and curtailed if the promise doesn't begin to materialise) without fully depleting the cash runway

- puts more shares in long term hands ahead of the LAT share expiry in October (so raising the bar for an opportunistic bid)

Have to say that I was disappointed about the shares being issued at the prevailing price, although I do recognise that the management team have a fair amount of skin in the game so have had to wear the same dilution as the rest of us

[brucie5] 08/9/2024 15:05

Good post, Tricky. I think part of Sanghera's intention was to show that the LSE could be home to a large global tech; which remains to be seen. And although we have Oracle on the register, which is very interesting given Elison's huge wealth (among the US' richest individuals) and interest in conquering cancer, both bM and Novo Holdings are European, with Novo being the parent company (with 25%) of Novo Nordisk (and 70% of the votes!), Europe's most valuable company c/o Wegovia.

Novo Holdings in itself is worth researching. ONT would be easily assimilable, were it for sale; but afaic, Novo have proved themselves very shrewd in the timing the latest purchase. But equally, Elison could pick it up for small change. So I guess it's a net positive to have such deep pocketed, serious players on the register.

[trickydicky1] 08/9/2024 14:30

1. Reminds me of ARM. Brilliant British technology in search of a problem or two (yes, backed that in 1996).

2. They have found a problem. Manufacturing QA/QC. Novo want them to stay independent. They will find more.

3. They have finally started taking the US seriously. You need to pay people US salaries and incentive structures. That’s how it works.

4. The key here isn’t “long read” or some other tech babble. It is “rapid” and “distributed”.

5. The challenge will be keeping the children on board for the ride; IP Group, Tencent, BG, BioM, Novo, UAE & Oracle. They will need all the help and support that we can give them not to fall for some lotto scratch card win.

6. Obviously not investment advice, but time to think in years, not months.

[brucie5] 08/9/2024 12:01

Keyno, far be it from to disagree with the world's most successful investor, but in reality, most of the shares in my portfolio, which are all, except ONT, suppliers of generous dividends, have moving parts or are subject to variables, such that I cannot claim to understand. Recall that whenever you buy a share you are effectively betting against the market and whatever they know that you may not; nevertheless you decided to take the plunge because that is part and parcel of why we're here. But you know you may be wrong and the market right; and it is always difficult to escape some degree of confirmation bias.

As for ONT, I have never claimed to understand in any real depth, though I have read as much as I can get my head round, a lot of it thanks to Bamboo, btw; and I also understand something of the competitive landscape (eg. Illumina) as well as the rapidly unfolding knowledge and usefulness of genomic testing and understanding.

But even so, my understanding of the above is still rudimentary, so I have to draw my sense of what it might be worth from secondary evidence:

1. I have been interested in the IPO portfolio for some time, as well as in and out of the share itself; ONT is, or has been up to now, of course the diamond in their crown and their largest holding
2. What large life science companies are willing to shell out for it (such as bM/Novo)
3. Balance sheet, such as there is no current or imminent cash crisis
4. What the chart suggests about where it's going. I always watch out for bottoms (!) and then the consequent shape of recovery. As my posting record suggests, I have limited patience with shares that go nowhere - unless they pay a good dividend for waiting. So my repurchase here is based on my sense that there a new momentum consequent on the recent basing pattern and move back above the 200sma. Naturally, this is never a sure signal and all sorts of things might happen to reverse that. Everything is based on a balance of risk/reward, as well as past experience of how such things work out. And I am often wrong!

Edit: I'd also add a further ingredient to my interest here: which is the research community that has grown up around the ONT technology. This is included in their recent report, viz-
"Approximately 1,400 peer-reviewed research papers published by users of Oxford Nanopore technology in H1 2024, bringing the total to approximately 12,500 to date, showcasing breakthrough research across cancer, human genetics and infectious disease and demonstrating continued opportunity for growth in the genomics research market."

It may be a strained analogy, but it reminds me somewhat of the success of the Games Workshop off the back of its Warhammer Community; the users of Nano's tech are not passive consumers of carpets, commodities, gaskets or houses; they are actively at work engaging with with the product, adding knowledge and value to the proposition; both highly educated and motivated within their field of Life Sciences. Moreover, I'm inclined to think that the huge scope of genomics across different subject divisions is likely to be synergistic, as indeed is the case within the universe of Life Sciences itself, where knowledge about gut bacteria can have material implications for everything from immunological disorders, to cancer and obesity and even to dementia risk.

Finally, you might infer from this a further confirmation bias which I also readily acknowledge as possibly the most dangerous one: I really want this company to succeed!

So noone should take my enthusiasm for any kind of advice.

[keyno] 08/9/2024 10:46

This is a jam the day after tomorrow stock, IMO, Brucie5. When that particular day after tomorrow will come I have no idea and it may never come for some shareholders if the company eats cash too fast and/or the BOD and large shareholders are made an offer they, but not we, can't refuse.

Warren B says never buy shares in a company you don't understand - I did that here.

[steeplejack] 08/9/2024 10:04

These biotechs are very difficult to value.Analysts knock out their discounted cash flow models for years ahead and its fanciful for the most part.I agree with Brucie5 that charts become more than usually useful when trying to gauge where the shares are heading short term.The IC's view has as much validity as any other but i'd follow the lead of Novo before a financial journalist who probably has about as much in-depth knowledge of the biotech sector as i do.

[brucie5] 07/9/2024 18:32

Yes, I've read the article. They see the journey to BE as too uncertain, still a story stock, etc. But IMO it will either be sold or else be much higher by then and so long as the tech and product continues to become further embedded in life sciences across multiple fields, it will have undeniable value to an acquirer like Novo. But good to have the contrary view : we saw where all the bullishness led us - too far, too early.
My feeling has been all along, noone really knows the value of something like this, except what peeps are willing to pay for it. We've had bM, then Novo put their markers down. Beyond that people are more influenced by whether it's going up or down. So afaic, wait for the bottom, then for the chart turn. It looks to have turned.
In the meantime, about one third of the mcap in cash. I can't seeing the balance sheet being a problem given who they've got on the register.
Can you?

[keyno] 07/9/2024 16:28

IC have this as a Sell. DYOR.

[brucie5] 07/9/2024 14:58

Ok - here's some light entertainment on a wet September afternoon.

From IP0 (at 4.25)to trough (90p) price the decline here has been 79% With total peak (7.00) to trough decline of 87%.

My understanding is if a share more than halves, it is more likely than not to halve again, to 25% of its peak value. Thereafter we may see whether it survives, which this clearly has. And it goes without saying that the rule is little more than an old wives' tale put about by those who should no better, such the investor's Chronicle, where I think I first heard it, though I've not since been able to source it.

But in this case and for purposes of entertainment that would be either 1.06p based on the IPO price of 4.25; or 1.75, based on peak of 7.00. Average those two up and you get to...

140.5. Almost directly above the 200ma.

;)

Absolutely NAI.

[essentialinvestor] 06/9/2024 12:17

10%, wow.

Laughing if it pays off obvs.

[brucie5] 06/9/2024 12:03

Added this morning to 10% of the Bruciefolio, further than which I cannot go. Will switch off now and wait for events and the chart, to unfold. I have the feeling that if my average buy price is wrong (now about 1.39) it won't be so for long. I cannot for life of me see the logic of anyone selling at this stage of the journey, though it may take a bit of patience. There may of course be something that I/we're not seeing; but I am willing to be wrong about my timing, so long as I can be right over the timeframe. I still see £2 as the natural, initial range for this share, when we may see more retail interest in the recovery and we can all breathe a bit easier. Thereafter, presumably, it will need to appreciate quickly, or risk the bidding war that will take it out early.

[brucie5] 05/9/2024 16:14

Final buys coming through at 142; and a large UT at 141.3 for 644k shares. Before that, a bizarre series of buys of 6 shares each!?

I'm no market expert but the line seems to have been held today. I would imagine some degree of reluctance among retail investors who still don't trust the level. Give it a few more days, maybe.

[brucie5] 05/9/2024 09:43

Just doubled up this morning on this expected retrace. It's now my largest single holding albeit with a folio otherwise given over to dividends. Some risk I acknowledge, that it might follow the patter of CWR, which i see very much as an analogous (& potentially egregious) opportunity, but one that has has constantly failed on starters orders. However, I'm not sure if there are many other/any such growth opportunities as ONT on the LSE and having reached the rock bottom, with a second strategic partner on board at 1.20 - the other at 2.40- I think we can well and truly say that its card is marked.

[bamboo2] 05/9/2024 06:03

5 September 2024

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc

Oxford Nanopore to present at upcoming investor conferences

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc (LSE: ONT) ("Oxford Nanopore"), the company delivering a new generation of nanopore-based molecular sensing technology, will be presenting at the following investor conferences in September.



· Goldman Sachs 21st Annual Medtech and Healthcare Services Conference on Thursday, 5 September at 9:00am BST in London, UK

· BofA Securities Global Healthcare Conference 2024 on Wednesday, 18 September at 1:20pm BST in London, UK

· Bernstein's 21st Pan European Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on Wednesday, 25 September at 9:00am BST in London, UK



Live webcasts of the events can be accessed at the company's investor relations page at:


Webcast replays will be available for at least 30 days following the events via the same link.

[trickydicky1] 04/9/2024 22:32

Can anyone think of an alternative way of doing this?

[benchmark] 04/9/2024 17:35

Thanks bamboo2

[brucie5] 04/9/2024 16:44

Tomorrow we see if this rise has support at the 200. Should be interesting.

[bamboo2] 04/9/2024 15:21

No recent gap on UK based charts.
Gap on US based ONTTF is a factor of UK share price performance.

Anyone who's missed the boat, there's still plenty to look forward to....

[p1nkfish] 04/9/2024 14:17

Goldman Sachs tomorrow, London.

[benchmark] 04/9/2024 14:04

Gap-filling to-morrow?