Oxford Metrics Share Discussion Threads

[rossco] 29/10/2024 19:48

I have previously held OMG.
I almost bought back in in June when an “profits in line” announcement was made and the price fell below 100p.
Fortunately I decided just to monitor the price and with the news in September of profits going to be materially below expectations I have left well alone.
Looking at Progressive’s forecast of PBT of 3.4m I reckon that 70% will be finance income from the hoard of cash.
Can’t say I am impressed with board announcements since CEO was appointed in September last year.
Even the share buyback is not stopping the share price decline.

Going to wait until the next results announcement before making a decision to buy.

[tallprawn] 23/9/2024 07:05

Probably double that..

[johndoe23] 23/9/2024 07:02

Very poor management here

[scepticalinvestor] 23/9/2024 06:56

Ouch-15% open?

[lennonsalive] 23/9/2024 06:55

*Oxford Metrics' compiled market consensus as at 20 September 2024 is as follows: FY24 Revenue £48.6m / FY Adjusted PBT £7.8m.

[lennonsalive] 23/9/2024 06:55

The Group now expects to report revenues in the range of £40-£42million and is expected to result in Adjusted PBT* materially below current market expectations* for the financial year.

[lennonsalive] 12/9/2024 15:44

Buying volume this afternoon, possibly tipped?

[nchanning] 12/9/2024 15:13

Broker did say just in June that OMG has more than 90% visibility on full year revenues , year end cash pile of 59£ million . Even if you get a profit warning now it's unlikely to be a big one with that kind of visibility how low can the price really go ? The enterprise value has gone from 90m to 50m with the only news being an inline update with no changes to forecasts . If you wake up to a bad profit warning RNS saying revenues marked down from 49m to 44m and PBT from 8m to 5m , surely you'd say that's in the price already ....

[nakedmolerat] 09/9/2024 10:59

i am looking at this again because of the price. mcap at 103, half of that is cash.

right, interim results from july

revenue up, profit down, dividend increase, cash down, but they did make purchase if i remember and is that included or is the divi eating the cash?

the problem for me is the order book, h1 fy 2024 3 million v 2023 11.3 million
it's below the 200 moving average and could fall past the current point at where it has been before
income fell from games

in the interim they state

Oxford Metrics is well placed to deliver full year results in line with current market expectations.

so, inline, but what is fy 2024 forecast?

i'm fraid it's no from me for investing here until i see buyers, which will come on order book or purchases.

thoughts?

[levr] 06/9/2024 08:58

I'm in; value trumps the 'falling knife' for me.

[texas_caddy] 06/9/2024 08:29

This will be trading at cash soon!

[lennonsalive] 09/8/2024 14:28

Maybe movement at 80p as this seems to be a point to reenter

[cowie19] 04/8/2024 13:35

I used to hold this but has gone very quiet recently share price not great recently. Needs a catalyst.

[lennonsalive] 11/6/2024 09:14

They need use that money for investment purposes.

[garth] 11/6/2024 07:48

Lackluster...

[tiswas] 11/6/2024 07:34

Sold my small holding first thing.

Very uninspiring numbers, especially when you look at how much of the profit figure was finance income on the cash pile.

Hope there will be a decent brokers note out, I clearly need to understand it a lot better than I do currently.

[nchanning] 23/5/2024 13:45

Don't think any investor wants them to spend 60 million on an acquisition . An occasional bolt on for £10 million is likely to be done at a much more attractive multiple . Immediately returning 30-40 million by tender offer at 120p a share required

[crazycoops] 10/5/2024 15:15

Quiet? There was a capital markets day recently, a recording of which can be accessed via the company's website. Personally, I am not overly comfortable with the amount of time that cash has been sitting on the balance sheet and think they either need to pull their finger out with some further earnings enhancing acquisitions or think about returning cash to shareholders. That said, my patience will extend a little longer.

[srichardson8] 10/5/2024 14:21

I do not usually comment on stock price movements without any 'event backing' but I am bound to notice quite a decent recovery in the OMG price from a low of 80 in October 23 to the current 116. That said the longer term trend is pretty much sideways within that range (80->120)so it may be nothing.
Earnings should be available from early June, the new CEO (though very experienced manager in the company)has been quiet and as yet not used any of the large cash balance on any acquisitions. The March 23 interims were outstanding, way above anything before that though boosted by slippage from delayed business from the previous six months. So they will be a tough act to follow.
Just as a reminder the company should still have a relatively huge cash balance of c £60mn which provides comfort now but perhaps a springboard towards a bigger operation in this nche area.

[crazycoops] 08/2/2024 18:51

FYI, Oxford Metrics has been picked as one of Simon Thompson's (of Investors Chronicle) bargain shares for 2024

[garth] 06/2/2024 18:09

and, silly me, KR sold 90k worth of shares too. Time to go, KR?That's confidence. G.

[garth] 06/2/2024 18:02

RNS CR, Exec.Dir transfering 6K shares and selling...

[nchanning] 01/2/2024 07:49

AIM such a damp squib at the moment . Pretty confident statement this early in the year . When they beat the expectations last year there was no hint of it in the AGM statement

[johndoe23] 19/12/2023 11:10

115p at least