....and he marched them up to the top of the hill, and he marched them down again. |
Looking ahead, for fiscal 2025, the company projects net sales to grow mid- to high-single digit and core operating income to grow high single to low double-digit.
"With the momentum we are seeing in the business, we expect to continue our strong sales growth with margin expansion in 2025 and we remain on track to deliver on our mid-term guidance," Novartis added.
More positive vibes from the european healthcare sector with Novartis reporting today ... |
Phil, I agree with you here...and it is probably what keeps me here for now given the less than perfect comms from our leaders.
The comments from Sartorius in their financials release are somewhat encouraging if you read the details and give a sense of an uptick in European biotech finally after several years in the post covid doldrums... |
 The idea that Novo Holdings needs to wait and “figure out Catalent first” doesn’t really add up. They’ve been an investor in OXB since 2019, so they’ve already done their homework. Novo has publicly said they want to double the size of Catalent and turn it into a global CDMO powerhouse. OXB would immediately solve Catalent’s underutilized CGT capacity issue and bring best-in-class lentiviral tech—something Novo can’t easily build from scratch. Waiting too long would just make OXB more expensive, especially as the company is set to hit £180m+ revenue in 2025 and £250m+ in 2026, pushing up any potential buyout price.
Then there’s the weird silence from OXB—no insider buys for over a year, barely any news flow, and an unusually tight share price range. On top of that, BlackRock has increased its stake, and we’re seeing a lot of SINT trades, which can sometimes signal positioning ahead of a major event. If Novo wants to bid, doing it sooner makes sense, as they could justify a lower price based on 2025 figures. If they wait until later in 2026, they could be paying a lot more. Everything suggests they’ve been lining this up for a while. |
"Lonza announced its new vision and One Lonza strategy centered around the Lonza Engine, which brings together the company’s unique core competencies that enable outstanding value creation. As part of this, Lonza announced its intention to exit the CHI business and evolve into a pure-play CDMO. "
Mmmm "Pure play CDMO" where have I heard that before? |
Harry, the IR portion of the website states there will be a full year trading update in Feb.
As for the large move two days ago, that was a knock on of the Sartorius results.
I think you're getting ahead of yourself with the takeover theory. Don't go there - it's a miserable existence and there's just no way NH would do it without taking some significant time to first know what they've got with Catalent. |
Lonza looks to acquire more CDMO capacity Not many targets left? Can't think of oneHTTps://www.lonza.com/news/2025-01-29-06-25 |
Candidate for today's spot Captain Obvious prize I know, but we need to know what OXB are up to and they plainly either can't tell us or don't want to.
Until we find that out then we are going to be rudderless as some come in for the record year / return to profit whilst others either see a good time to take a profit or need to sell some to meet redemptions or whatever.
Last time none of the insiders at OXB bought my pet theory was something to do with BMS which Stuart seemed to hint at in a couple of the previous presentations. It turned out to be IM swapping ABL Europe for a lot of shares, which would have been pretty much impossible to guess from what was in the public domain previously.
My guess that it's NH this time could be just as wrong, but I do think it's difficult to see how NH plan to turn around the remainder of Catalent and double its size within 5 years without buying quite a few bolt-on companies.
Nothing tomorrow and we have gone through the first month of our return to profit / record sales year without a single word from OXB. |
Ah back to 415p,our anchoring post! |
taffy,
I know you have likely read many variations on this speech before, but last year OXB told us...
That they were having to spend unplanned sums of money to pretty much continually recruit to onboard staff to meet unexpected workloads this year.
That this year would be better than +35% on revenue from last year (an all time record).
That we would return to profit on EBITDA (first time since 2021).
Bearing that (amazing good news story) in mind...
We hear next to nothing from them since a conference presentation which was basically a repeat of the interims.
No insiders have bought for a very long time.
Nothing restricts any update with unaudited figures if they are marked as that.
Nothing stops Frank noting the number of contracts which Seb has won, even if he doesn't mention details.
So they either don't want to give news until they have to (which they seem to want to wrap up into a notification of prelim FY results date) or they are waiting for something they know about which changes everything when it becomes live.
Whoever runs the OXB LinkedIn page (I'm guessing Sophia) is doing their bit and that's great, but do we really think a top story in OXB at the moment is some guy turning up at the booth and telling our Chief Business Officer that his first boss now works for OXB? |
THE REAL BREAK OUT LEVEL HERE IS 450 NOT 440. (Or 444 if ,unlike me, you think the eod level matters most). A true Breakout needs to end the day above the level on high volume. Hence this is not a fakeout.... yet |
Our study provides a framework for further exploration of gene modifications to improve CAR T infiltration and efficacy in solid tumors and identifies SPP1 as a candidate gene to improve GD2.CAR T treatment of bulky tumors. |
Another fakeout (fake breakout) for our 4.40 resistance point - surely not. I feel sorry for the short term traders who must constantly get fed up with the "surely this is right time to go long for my punt". As a LTBH all this passes me by ..... |
I had a quick look at M&G given their recent move below 5%.
The majority of their shares have been held in the Recovery Fund. This has been a size of £1bn+ in recent years but is now £900m after returning circa +20% over the past year. So likely have seen outflows of around 25%. Similar story with Liontrust. |
Based on nothing more than the number of shares traded and the price action so far today, I'd say that both fleets have now returned to port.
Yesterday was nice and a good example of what a bit of interest looks like in a poor market, but I think everything so far today says "that was it and done" yesterday (i.e. a big buyer who is now a holder).
Obviously I'd be happy to be wrong, but OXB do seem to be a very tight ship these days regarding news, and it remains to be seen what the promised trading update / results notification actually includes. If it is not very much at all (i.e. the minimum they can get away with) then I would remind the jury of exhibit "a" in the fact that not a single OXB insider has bought for a record length of time now.
Well paid professionals in a company which is constantly recruiting and guiding big growth numbers, yet none of them are tucking a few away? |
Or the destroyer above on the surface... |
21 trades in the first 11 minutes this morning, only two of which were for more than 10 shares (a 21 and 42). |
Perhaps February will show the first shoots of Spring? |
If you look at the charts at the top of the page, it looks far more like the continuation of an existing trend... |
Mkt cap £470m at close today and roughly £530m (it all depends on the review day) would get promotion if it was today.
FTSE250 and MSCI (worked out in a far more complicated way) would be great for OXB (and therefore us) but of course we don't know yet if today was transitory or the start of a trend. |
28th February is the next review date, would be good to get the update in before then to give it a leg up. |
12 FTSE 250 companies have a market capitalisation lower than OXB at closing prices. |
Whatever actually happened today, up 6.73% at close on 415,921 shares traded is quite a refreshing change. Especially when it had been 11p higher still for some of the afternoon.
For those old enough to remember the closing credits of Soap...
Will it continue tomorrow?
Are we due big news?
Does it mean something?
Does it mean nothing?
These questions, and others, will be answered on the next episode of Soap. |
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