All true that it goes quicker Gareth, but I'm still trying to put off becoming The Major in Fawlty Towers for as long as is possible.
I'd really quite like to be holding OXB when they are at max-capacity and therefore full margin, but as you will have worked out some time ago now, I'm pretty convinced that Novo Holdings will offer our major shareholders enough to buy them out of those rewards early and we will just be observers to it all.
If all the clues which I've stuffed into the Novo H Cluedo envelope are actually something close to their intentions, then OXB is only going to become progressively more expensive this year - so why wait? $11bn is about to return from Novo Nordisk and that's a pretty good war chest with which to go on a spending spree isn't it? |
The good news HST is the older we get the faster the sands fall (I think that is good news?). |
 As a wise man (when asked for a definition) once replied "basically, time is the thing which stops everything from happening at once". Wise words there.
You're a very long term holder Gareth and don't need reminders from me, but when almost all of your customers are put on hold with pandemic restrictions (commercial work being allowed) meaning that 87% of your bioprocessing work was for an emergency vaccine - and that then gets stopped early for political reasons. It's a disaster.
No other words, it's just a disaster. Then buy in an AAV vector where the deal is greatly sweetened by guaranteed work from the vendor - who then goes out of business - and in trying to mitigate a disaster you have done the frying pan to fire two step.
This you already know well. But you mention time, and in April it will be 3 years since OXB announced the end of that vaccine production for AZ.
In those 3 years OXB have ditched a lot of costs and let loose Seb whose sales department this year will deliver all time record sales (and a profit). Our USA site not only has lots of non-Homology AAV work now, but is selling LV into north America too.
It took 3 years, but it's fixed now and of course next year there will be even more sales with better than 20% EBITDA margin.
It's a very good story but (as Dom points out) even though OXB seem reticent to blow their own trumpet in public, something must be interesting the people who are happy to spend £20m+ on 5%.
Obviously I see this through the eyes of an OXB shareholder, but the Novo guy seems to drop some huge hints to me.
He wants to double the size of Catalent? What has pure CDMO OXB got to offer?
In Oxford
OxBox - production, fill/finish, warehouse and labs.
Windrush Court - labs.
Harrow House - production and labs.
Wallingford - MHRA approved warehouse.
Yarnton - production, labs, warehouse.
In America
Patriot's Park Boston - production, labs, fill/finish, warehouse, cell bank.
In France
Strasbourg - production, fill/finish, labs
Lyon - production, fill/finish, cell banks.
Now OK, Catalent was 50 sites prior to moving 3 sideways into Novo Nordisk, but we know where he can buy 7 more plus a dedicated warehouse site don't we? |
Tempus omnia revelat, hopefully the sands of time will soon be gone. Exciting times. |
The sharks don't circle if there is nothing for them to kill..... M&G happy to take a profit with their 'trading chunk', still have allbut 5%, Blackrock 5%, Briarwood Chase 5%. Any time there is a seller of any volume it disappears very quickly. Good times ahead!! |
SJ,
He's a nasty piece of work and crony of some, well, you know the old one about "if you want to know who I am then look at my friends".
He's been predicting the death of OXB for a long time (whilst blaming me for it) but often turns up just before some institution sells (or notifies) then gloats. I expect he was hoping that the M&G sale would batter the price and is now quite frustrated that it hasn't. I think he needs a better hobby.
I'm not really interested in luminaire other than I don't filter him because I prefer to know when he's around. It's a bit like Peter (his mate) with HEMO - it's best to be on the back foot and prepared when these people are hovering.
I'm currently pondering what the Novo guy said about Catalent. I had wondered what their official plan was as obviously we all know Catalent was struggling a bit post covid (256m loss in '23 on quite a drop in sales) and of course post close of takeover Novo Holdings sold one of the prize divisions to Novo Nordisk. So what to do with what was left?
We now know that they plan to double the size of what is left of Catalent (with an aim to eventually rival Lonza / Thermo Fisher) but how do they do that?
Obvious (to my mind) first move will be that everything in the Novo Nordisk diabetes empire which would normally be contracted out will have Catalent as preferred bidder.
Then I'm presuming growth via a lot of purchases of smaller outfits where there is something of added value which could be sold on only through the Catalent network. OXB seems to fill a natural gap there in the cell therapy division of Catalent.
If it happens it happens and if it doesn't I keep hold of my OXB shares in their return to profit year. |
Well Briarwood Chase think they're cheap having just purchased a slug of stock from M&G,so we're not all together on our own. |
Fingers crossed.
Car T in solid tumours
AZD6422 targets CLDN18.2 and is designed with a CD28/CD3ζ intracellular signaling domain, TGFBR2 armoring, and the STAR-T manufacturing process. The STAR-T protocol shortens the production timeline to 4 days using IL-2 and IL-21, preserving T cells in a less differentiated state to enhance functionality, persistence, and metabolic fitness.
In preclinical studies, the antitumor efficacy of AZD6422 was strongly correlated with CLDN18.2 expression levels. Importantly, TGF-β expression did not significantly limit its antitumor activity, demonstrating the robustness of the TGFBR2 armoring in overcoming the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. |
I sense that momentum has shifted here .
Next target is £4.50 which we need to break above, for a proper move higher .
Tuco. |
Seller cleared and back to 430 ...we hope :) |
Blackrock invariably takes an interest and then fiddles around with derivatives on the margin and i don’t think one can read much into that RNS.
Briarwood,a smallish New York hedge fund taking an interest is much more noteworthy.
. |
I might have to get my coat at this point Phil, but I've previously found these things unclear on a good day.
I looked at position of previous 5.23 and resulting position below 5 then concluded a sale / disposal of unknown amount, but after my performance last night I'm far from confident. |
Hi Harry, Doesn’t that RNS suggest that black rock has increased their holding from below 5 to 5.03%, looking at the A+ B column? They just moved more into CFD’s.
Their total exposure has increased, albeit in a different mix of shares versus CFD’s.
If they’ve moved shares into CFDs, it might be to:
•Benefit from capital efficiency while maintaining exposure.
•Use CFDs to hedge risks without liquidating physical shares.
•Leverage potential upside without committing additional capital upfront. |
I realise I'm on thin ice here given my interpretation of yesterday, but...
M&G have sold quite a lot and are now under 5%.
Blackrock have sold an unknown amount and are below 5% but somehow a CFD is involved (see bottom of RNS).
Morgan Stanley have bought and are now above 5%.
I would say it's good to see Morgan Stanley buying as obviously a vote of confidence by a big name. I think this also explains why recently we have seen more trades marked "SINT" than I can remember before (imagine trying to sort all this out).
Other than that I don't think we can say a lot. Have Blackrock finished selling? Up 1.2% today on normal volume sort of suggests they have, but who knows.
To my untrained eye here it looks to me that Morgan Stanley have taken at least the M&G shares and stopped the price getting killed like it did with US sellers in August '23 which I suspect is what luminaire hoped was going to happen again. Wouldn't it be a shame if the old team were shorting knowing that there were 2 big sellers but didn't realise MS were hoovering them up.
Would be an even bigger shame if there was a nice RNS tomorrow morning. |
Sometimes buses crash. |
Talk about buses... |
BR currently hold a 45% stake in M&G, through their various tributaries.
Not sure what's going on here, it's even starting to confuse me. |
Presuming that M&G have been selling over a period then you would have expected disclosure as their shareholding fell through the bands ie 9 percent ,8 percent etc but that hasn't occurred.So maybe it was a block trade.Yet given that M&G no longer think they have a notifiable interest at just under 5%,they appear to be conforming with the disclosure rules pertaining to a non UK issuer.Helpful but invariably confusing these disclosures.i suppose you just have to make do with the fact that we know M & G have sold half their holding. |
An understandable mistake Harry if indeed it is a mistake.I suppose M&G know better than us.I thought it was 3 per cent.Disclosure must be reported within a couple of trading days unless its a non UK issuer,then its 4 days.Sets of rules cloaked in exemptions and complications that have companies wishing to go private.Under DTR 5.1.2R, a person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights they hold as a shareholder or are deemed to hold through their direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) or a combination of such holdings, if the percentage of those voting rights:reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R; orreaches, exceeds or falls below an applicable threshold in (1) as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the issuer in accordance with DTR 5.6.1 R and DTR 5.6.1A R. |
Thanks bunlop. I honestly thought it was simply UK 3% non-UK 5% but have edited now to make me look slightly less daft. |
Harry. I think funds have a 5% notification threshold. |
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