Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 23/11/2024 07:01

The bot has finally cheered up moving to buy yesterday - these updates are more for irony/humour and information and not advice of course...if you think selling at 412 to buy back at 420 is a good trading strategy...it continues to make me think my boring LTBH works better for me :)

Signal Update (22/11)
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH ENGULFING pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 418.50, and our valid average buying price stands now at 420.00. The previous SELL signal was issued on 08/11/2024, 14 days ago, when the stock price was 412.50. Since then OXB.L has risen by +1.82%

[harry s truman] 22/11/2024 19:06

Hope,

It used to irk me about the free shares, but these days I see what people in the public and charity sectors get away with and just accept that it's the system. We will get what we eventually get and that's about it.

I'm sure Mark is very good at his job though - else why would Frank have brought him from the old company?

[harry s truman] 22/11/2024 18:55

Haven't they just cancelled the same number from a previous RSU and reissued the same amount? Presumably he has now met whatever the conditions were?

[hopesprings] 22/11/2024 18:51

Current culture is to incentivise everyone from the receptionist upwards. No bad thing if it makes the worklplace a happy place, builds cohesion and leads to the delivery of results.

Our problem as private investors, with major shareholders dominating the register,is to have a voice which is even noticed. Personal experience 25 years ago from the other perspective is that we are like a flea on the rear flanks of a rhino - an irritant tht can be humoured or swatted whenever required.

Woke regulation will ensure that - when appropriate - we are acknowledged, but sadly otherwise that's it. Frank doesn't really care a flying Frank about the smaller shareholder. He's not paid to.

So we have to recognise that the private investor's voice is only loud in regulatory circumstances. Otherwise we hardly count.

Sorry to be downbeat. Mr President bangs the drum so very effectively about the value within this business. Reticence from management doessn't help.

[ebitda3] 22/11/2024 17:59

Issued with £225k worth of shares based on today's closing price.

[icejelly] 22/11/2024 15:54

Has anyone worked out that RNS? Has M.C. been a good boy or a bad boy? Or is there no change? Or the company made a mistake?

[harry s truman] 22/11/2024 10:11

Slight dose of melancholy this morning for me because, as those with long service badges might remember, first days of 2024 I wrote that my sole 2024 OXB target was for them to get back into the FTSE250.

Today (well close of play today if we are being picky) marks the 4th and final FTSE review of the year and quite obviously we haven't. I can't help but think that there have been a few opportunities during the year where much better IR/PR (or even some visible IR/PR) could have perhaps swung it for us, but unfortunately OXB can't / won't talk about that side of the business these days or doesn't see the point.

Anyway, onward and upward as someone once said, and I'm guessing that 4 weeks today is the end of the 2024 trading year in all but name and after the break we start our long awaited profitable year and finally return from the naughty step.

I'm sure most of you will have worked it out by now, but for the first time holding OXB (and unlike Del Boy) I don't see a "this time next year" for us as OXB shareholders.

I think Novo have eyes now firmly set on that prize of the forecast C&GT CDMO market and see OXB's "tech, knowhow and proven ability to expand" + Catalent's enormous waiting capacity as the route to that very big prize.

Yes it might be wishful thinking based upon a lot of news stories and circumstantial evidence all stuck together to come up with a case, but remember my honest preference would be to hold OXB as it becomes "the" pure C&GT CDMO with that 20%+ EBITDA margin in 2026 forecast looking very nice indeed.

But I think Novo have the same idea now (albeit on steroids). It gets rid of some of their enormous cash pile. Utilises the parts of Catalent which Novo have made no attempt to explain the attraction of. Gets them a premium slice of the gene delivery market + everything else OXB can do. Perhaps most importantly though, it would get Novo another huge income stream which was relatively risk free once mature, as of course it's the partners / customers who are taking the development risk - Novo would simply be charging handsomely for helping them with a service.

EU decide on approving the Novo Catalent purchase by 2 weeks today.

[harry s truman] 21/11/2024 22:35

Someone has to be ready to manufacture on that scale by the end of the next lustrum then Marcus?Who do we know who owns the biggest share of that pure C> CDMO and is in the process of buying 4 dedicated sites + the Oxford VMIC building.To have the cash to be in the right place at the right time with that capability/ capacity and the bottle to do it, then wait for the work to come?

[marcusl2] 21/11/2024 21:03

Novartis projected an approximately $55 billion market opportunity by 2030 for its cell and gene therapy platform

[taffy24] 21/11/2024 20:16

Abingdon, UK, 21 November 2024: – OBN (UK) Ltd is thrilled to announce the winners of the prestigious OBN Awards 2024. This was the 16th year of the Awards, which OBN (UK) Ltd, the not-for-profit membership organisation that catalyses growth for the life sciences industry, established to celebrate innovation and outstanding achievement across the industry.

Presented by Ipsen, the most Impactful CRO was Oxford Biomedica, which has a mission to enable its clients to deliver life-changing cell and gene therapies globally.

[harry s truman] 21/11/2024 10:02

I don't think that is anything other than Novartis doing what we see mega-pharma (especially BMS) do quite often, which is to spend a relatively small amount of cash (for them) now, to get some rights to something which might turn out to be the next big thing in ten years time.

If I read Vyriad's website correctly then the modified LV which Novartis have secured some rights to hasn't even been tried on people yet. If so then that will be a long time and a lot more Novartis money before (if successful in the trial / approval process) it is sold in competition to OXB.

How it would compare to OXB re payload, targeting and such I don't know, but if the T-Charge currently in trials for them using OXB's vector works out well, then the Vyriad vector will have to start looking a lot better else they will simply drop it in a business review and stick with what they have. This is especially true when the speed of approval (i.e. arriving early) is a lot more important than arriving later with something slightly better.

I think it was Stuart at JPM who gets asked about similar and he replies that we can only ever really look 5 years ahead as anything much beyond that is pretty much anyone's guess as to what comes next. Remember back when we did the Homology deal, it was because the best paid advice said AV was dead in the water, LV would only ever be niche and thus OXB needed a good AAV.

[philh75] 20/11/2024 21:25

I wonder why they’ve decided to diversify Lv provider for new products, due to our closeness to Novo?

[harry s truman] 20/11/2024 19:13

Yesterday I was perhaps a little unfair when I wrote that I thought slide 17 was really the only "new" thing / point of interest for us.

By that I meant that they have added company logos for Coave, Transgene and Kalivir.

Coave had already been announced by ABL and ABL Strasbourg is the former Transgene manufacturing facility and is situated next door to their labs / offices, so those 2 could reasonably have been guessed.

Kalivir Therapeutics seems at first genuinely new to us and is based in the US, but read further and it's a MVA vector and I remember Seb saying that ABL had good MVA experience, so I think this too is probably ABL and therefore all 3 of these new names to us have come via the ABL purchase. Still good to know, but likely not "new" partners.

When I read the whole thing again today I noted the approvals on slide 9. Anvisa being the Brazilian regulator and PMDA the Japanese.

PMDA could mean something more progressed than we dare hope with Santen which would be about the right time for trialling something in the clinic. Alternatively it could be Astellas who are partnered with Kalivir. My guess is Santen though as that is most likely to be the one trialling in Japan (imho).

Re the question of who we could be partnering with in Brazil to require inspection / approval from their national regulator. I'll have to ponder that one.

[connello] 20/11/2024 15:30

Jefferies Presentation is on the Website

[harry s truman] 20/11/2024 12:51

Jez,

2 quick (for me) points:-

1) They are very busy. That 85% utilisation they projected for the suites next year is very good / doesn't get much better. This sort of begs the question (Phil's point above) of why they aren't rushing to bring more capacity online - but maybe the other big news story with NH explains that. The jobs they are advertising pretty constantly seems to back up the very busy statement at least.

2) Other advertising. I think as 100% pure CDMO they have to advertise / visit every relevant conference. Wasn't it Leverhulme who penned "early to bed, early to rise, it's no bloody good if you don't advertise"? They can probably live off word of mouth for LV quite nicely, but for AAV they will need to sell as it won't be immediately obvious to many that a company famous for lots of firsts in LV now offers AAV too.

[jezmundo] 20/11/2024 11:40

This stock is marginally better than watching paint dry. Like Harry, i am forever the optimist. But the continual stream of OXB advertisment's i am seeing on various pharma sites, makes me nervous. Are they getting desperate, why the need to advertise ALL year round!!!

[philh75] 19/11/2024 21:31

Great post, Harry.

[takeiteasy] 19/11/2024 19:31

some serious consolidation here across the sector even now hitting the "big 2" GLP1 plays - so everything is relative as they say, even our OXB share price :)

[harry s truman] 19/11/2024 14:21

It's obviously something I've pondered myself gh, and I think the magic number is somewhere around what Serum paid.

Let me give you my logic (or lack of it) :-

At the moment OXB struggles to shake off the covid work. Some recent news articles have actually headlined "Lossmaking vaccine manufacturer...".

Next year OXB will make a profit (a small one yes, but finally that "lossmaking" monkey off our backs - if I can still say that without a police visit at 4am).

A profitable CDMO should trade on 5.5x sales on average. OXB have said a projected FY2024 revenue range of £126 million to £134 million and better than 35% on that for 2025.

Can we say £180m revenue next year as a round number? x 5.5 = somewhere around £10 per share as a fair value.

Then you need a bid premium. Pick your number but 50% would have Serum not losing face on their 3% (just).

[gutterhead] 19/11/2024 14:08

The “bid” number will be an interesting one indeed. Making a friendly offer but not wanting to be seen to overpay is a tricky one…all that said, the overall number is like petty cash to Novo.
Interesting times and removes the hardest decision for me..knowing when to sell