Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 06/11/2024 18:41

Jasie,

The US market is delighted. The UK market I think happy for Wall St but still trying to work out what the first Labour budget did for us in the FTSE.

Reminding you of my amateur status here, I think I'm correct in saying that the yield on the 10 year gilts is now slightly higher than the number which caused the downfall of Liz Truss after her first budget. Fractions of a percentage yes but it's still big money on the size of the sums they borrow.

I'm not suggesting it will be the downfall of a Labour government, but we saw big withdrawals from the equity markets in anticipation of what RR was going to do and I've seen stories since which say the record equity withdrawals (from funds) has continued afterwards too.

Sweeping statement here but if people lose confidence in RR and see that she blew her big chance by wasting a lot of raised treasury income on doing nothing productive for the country, then they know she will be back for more soon and that will inspire nobody with confidence.

If I'm correct with any of that blunderbuss blast of a view, then we only really notice any fund selling when it crosses a percentage threshold. If there has been a lot of selling today though (in the 440k of volume), then we did very well with ready / willing takers to keep us more or less were we started the day at close.

But we have to focus on the future upside and I'm very hopeful that 415p at close today + all the other metrics they consider will have us back in the MSCI tonight.

My guess is that this will be the link and that it will come live sometime after 10pm tonight

If it does then the "MSCI UNITED KINGDOM INDEX" is around page 6 and it will list the additions for this quarter. If OXB is included again, then remember my previous point that over 800k was sold by just 3 funds when were left the same index.

I think that readmission would be a very good thing for us over the next weeks and months. Fingers crossed.

[gareth jones] 06/11/2024 17:23

I just wish I hadn't put $5 on A Horse called Harris! What do I know!

[jasierock] 06/11/2024 16:57

Gareth
Like you I expected a better reaction from the markets this afternoon but everything seems to be very stagnant.

[harry s truman] 06/11/2024 14:21

A little over 400k shares traded so far today with the price all-over the place.

[harry s truman] 06/11/2024 09:44

Very possible Gareth, but world politics aside I think the coincidental Morgan Stanley Capital International quarterly review today is more significant for OXB shareholders short term.

As Phil mentions yesterday, sometime tonight we will know if we are back in this or not

I looked at the qualification pdf and it's nowhere as near as simple as the FTSE index (inclusion by market cap) and they take into account all kinds of things like ESG scores, so really I'm just guessing that we will get back in.

My logic? Look at that datasheet and the smallest market cap in there at the moment is £147m (so they will be getting booted out) with OXB having more than doubled our market cap to £447m since we were booted this time last year. Also I'm guessing that our ESG score will be up since Lucy was appointed.

However, OXB won't be the only company trying to get in that index at close of play today - though I am hopeful. If it happens I'll be a lot more confident about the 250 on the 22nd. If not then OXB probably need to post some news. We will see.

[gareth jones] 06/11/2024 09:02

Look out for a bounce for OXB at 14.30pm GMT when NYSE opens. OXB usually pick up at this time.

[harry s truman] 06/11/2024 08:33

135k shares in the first 30 mins? Election bounce or someone who understands the MSCI criteria?

[harry s truman] 05/11/2024 23:38

Don't mention the election Phil. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it.

[philh75] 05/11/2024 22:55

So I think the MSCI result is tomorrow, or at least around 10pm tomorrow. Also with the US election (not necessarily conclusive results) - it should be interesting I guess.

[harry s truman] 05/11/2024 18:04

There were quite a lot of shares traded today (c230k) after a very slow start this morning.

Needs some momentum now if we are to be back in the FTSE250 on the 22nd at close of play. It's possible - just a question of how likely.

Last Friday £551m market cap would have nudged out 325th place. OXB have roughly 106m shares so 520p per share needed in 13 trading days for that assuming the value of the index stays the same.

418p at close today so +8p per day on average might be enough. You know I have hopes that getting back into the MSCI this week will bring in the buyers to do that - but I'm not sure.

[gareth jones] 05/11/2024 17:04

Chart looks good to me as a novice. Could be fireworks tonight?

[harry s truman] 05/11/2024 15:03

The Eurovision side of this always makes me smile. Anyway, back to OXB.

OXB presented recently in Rome at the European Society of Cell & Gene Therapy 2024 conference.

You'd never guess unless you looked for it, but the relevant poster they presented is hidden on the OXB website here

Crucial part to note here for those of us interested in OXB are the terms SAN & M-SAN.

"Our findings demonstrate that the use of SAN and M-SAN exhibited superior activity under typical LV manufacturing conditions.".

SAN is Salt Active Nucleases and it's the technology of ArcticZymes where our CEO Frank is the new Chairman and I understand from today's internet trawl that OXB are the first to try it.



”M-SAN demonstrated superior performance compared to the Industry Standard Nuclease when integrated into OXB’s LV production process”
‍
"SAN also outperformed the Industry Standard Nuclease when integrated into OXB’s LV production”
‍
“Over 10-fold reduction in residual DNA compared to the Industry Standard Nuclease”

[harry s truman] 05/11/2024 13:19

Good to see a valued partner progressing Marcus, but just to clarify BEAM-201 is the CAR-T we partner them with.

[marcusl2] 05/11/2024 12:59

John Evans
@john_evans3
·
1h
In the liver, we have also completed dosing of the first cohort for the BEAM-302 trial for AATD, and have sites opening around the world.

Startup is progressing well for BEAM-301 in GSD1a in the US.

In a few hours we will also share the abstracts/data submitted to ASH and accepted for the conference, as well as holding a conference call at 8:30am ET where we will discuss the results

[steeplejack] 05/11/2024 10:58

Oh dear ..this is how religious wars start.

[trickydicky1] 05/11/2024 10:51

I would have thought Psalm 22 was more appropriate here.

[steeplejack] 04/11/2024 23:19

Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me.

Psalm 23

Well,well,i think a bit of scripture reading wouldn’t go amiss in the Dominic household.Thereagain,could be a reference to “into the valley of death rode the 600’.Time will tell.

[dominiccummings] 04/11/2024 21:53

Mainly heathens on the BBs Gareth. You may have to explain that.

[gareth jones] 04/11/2024 20:58

23rd Psalm, a Psalm of David?

[harry s truman] 04/11/2024 18:05

Many have made points in the past here about the number of shares firmly held these days and the decreasing fraction available to churn with the usual changes in supply and demand. I'm sure those aren't quite the correct terms, but as the likes of Blackrock (perhaps a bad example) appear holding 5% or more then what happens when news or some other event creates a sudden demand?

You know I'm a bull, never hide it and there are a few others on the thread of a similar mind who have been here for a very long time. So yes there will be confirmation bias but I'm convinced OXB was way oversold because most small shareholders who bought in for covid only knew OXB as a covid share and when the vaccine work ended they all charged for the door and created a death spiral.

How much that was helped by people in dark glasses who saw the opportunity to make a lot of money out of it I don't know, but as I have pointed out before with links to the shares shorted chart which I post occasionally, when most shares are outstanding the threads here are being carpet-bombed with very negative posts by a handful of people. Once the shorts closed then it stopped. OK some of them may just have been idiots entertaining themselves, but a remarkable coincidence if no connection to most of it.

I have a hindsight feeling that OXB + much better PR could have just about kept that at bay had not Homology gone bump, but that's fortunes of war. With hindsight it would have been better had we never seen them, but at the time the smart money said go AAV. You know what happened next.

But here we are having travelled through the shadow of the valley of death, and still with a chance this month of having all past sins forgiven via readmission to the MSCI and FTSE250. Not long to find out with the first one there.

[steeplejack] 04/11/2024 16:18

All the buzz words there ‘operational gearing’,̵7;excellent growth prospects’ and even a mention of being a potential tasty corporate morsel for good measure.Yes,once Oxford Biomedica becomes profitable,its probably fair to assume that Threadneedle (under whatever guise) will be buying more.Makes me wonder how many other sizeable institutions have this unwritten rule that they don’t buy lossmakers.All of a sudden,the OXB boat could be on a broad reach with the wind in its sails once it becomes profitable and one will regret not buying more despite the memorably choppy ride.

[harry s truman] 04/11/2024 15:48

I'm going to go into OXB OCD again here SJ, but the following may be of interest:-

A long time ago there was a "financial TV" type interview with one of the fund managers from Threadneedle posted on here.



Apart from the Novartis / Pfizer slip obviously a lot more knowledgeable than the interviewer about OXB - i.e. a follower and if you look at the last annual report on page 116 then they were buyers already this year - i.e. 3,183,728 at the beginning of the year and 3,245,381 by 15th of April.

I may be hearing what I want to hear in the interview, but it sounds very much to me that he's implying they will be in for more as OXB turns profitable - which as we know is the year which is 8 weeks away.

I'm sure he knows that better than us. I'd also bet another pound of Dom's money that the Threadneedle guy will know if OXB is going to be back in the MSCI this week or not.