But something going on that we are not a party to? |
Certainly not in a takeover frenzy |
Oh dear. That was shortlived. Up 12p, for 15 minutes, now down 15p! |
Sudden jump. USA up and at it? |
No opening auction. No trades? |
Anybody else watch the traded volume today?
Sleepy and very low all morning, then repeat act this afternoon until 16:11 when 37,600 and then 62,000 shares go through, then the closing auction is 22,000 shares and then another 89,000 shares after close.
Quarter of a million is good volume for us these days but presumably a lot of selling in that for us to close down? |
Ok, thanks for explaining Harry |
Moving up to 2 brokers instead of replacing - is that a signal in itself? |
Did we like Jeffries when they were here before? |
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/health/weightloss/novo-nordisk-posts-net-profit-beat-as-wegovy-sales-jump-107-in-fourth-quarter/ar-AA1yrayB
only posting this as this firm gets so much airplay here .... |
JPMC gone after 12 months as Joint Corporate Broker and back to Jefferies working alongside RBC? Fed up with JPMC or had they served their purpose? Interesting? Perplexing? |
 You've got to expect that Cousin and I would have thought it's unrelated to our current situation.
We had 35 partners last time OXB updated and a lot of those partners are multiple experimental lines (including CARGO, which wasn't a single product agreement), but (but, but, but) the odds of getting an early stage drug approved are slim and lots of our partners are chasing the same disease indication target from different directions anyway.
If 25% of our 35 get one of their multiple lines eventually approved then that will have been a fantastic result for us and we will all be very happy (assuming we still own OXB by then).
The big plus of current OXB is that shareholder expectations were on CARGO not us, as we will get paid on delivery of a to spec product whether their trials later show durable responses or not.
My tip for anyone watching trials would be to forget the early trials (nice indication but doesn't prove anything) and concentrate on what is in very late stage with a registration trial, which for OXB was 4 partners as of last September. Those are all better than 50% in our favour so it would be pretty unlucky for none of them to pass review. If 4 pass review then OXB will treble its commercial supply side of the business, which of course is ongoing rather than for a fixed amount of trial material.
We have to expect failure though - that is part of the game - and if you remember, one of the reasons they wanted the KPI table rather than the pipeline page is that it's much more reflective of what OXB have.
I'm not sure how clear that is, but if you notify every win and it's say 8 in 6 months, then that's great and keeps us all happy, but if 3 were lost to trial failure or business decision over the same period then updating the KPI table by 5 programmes is a better way to track progress. |
I was just trying to catch up on news and noticed that Cargo Therapeutics have pulled their Phase 2 trial that I believe we were producing the vector for.
They have plenty of cash, so shouldn't be any issue with payment for the work to date, but not likely to get more. Another trial was on the slate but a strategic review has now been initiated. |
I've nothing new to add SJ, but I think we all agree that if the FY results (likely end of April) are not going to be acceptably close to what they have guided and later revised upwards, then they have to tell the market almost as soon as it becomes clear to them - and they haven't.
Personally I'm pretty convinced that OXB is in a closed period and that the insiders are embargoed from buying for some reason which is unknown to us, and possibly unknown to most of them too.
All the time I've held OXB (cue Hovis advert theme tune) the OXB team have been pretty regular buyers. Not all of them following each results / big news, but many of them and I would say that even on quiet years someone always gave a little signal of commitment. Then came Roch (who is quite obviously a very wealthy man, as I guess we could expect after 15 years as CEO of a big pharma company) and I can't ever remember any insider employee buying like Roch.
Look at this link and it's 15 months since a single one of them bought - and I can't believe that is because they all think that the company recovering from the post covid slump is the time to stop.
So I think it's because they can't - or as Frank might say when asked for permission, "Non" - and I don't think he is obliged to tell them why.
Either a mad coincidence affecting them all then (I just can't believe Roch is skint) or something is preventing the open periods being open for 15 months now.
As I have noted in the Novo hypothesis, exhibit "a" is the fact that this 15 months fits quite nicely with Novo H making a public move on Catalent a year ago tomorrow.
Could it be related? I think yes, but it could also be something else un-guessable too - and if they buy again after the results in April then I will assume the closed period is over without us ever discovering what it was for. |
Then isn't it easiest to just say so? You know, Occam's razor?
If not, maybe our more lurid projections may be the case.
(Or even Novo hadn't thought about it, but it sounds a great proposition, "perhaps we should do it?") ;-) |
“…they don't seem to want to blow their own trumpet.”
Well,Harry,that̵7;s the kindly way of describing the deafening silence that has characterised OXB’s investor relations in recent months.The share price seems reluctant to get out of bed in the morning.The MMs are notably slow at freshening up the spread.Yet,’it is what it is’as folk like to say nowadays suggesting they are resigned to accepting all manner of ills.We’ll get an update within the next month providing an opportunity perhaps to address the more imaginative explanations for the relative disinterest shown by shareholders and insiders alike.Reading the market tea leaves,my bet is that the company is doing quite nicely and they’re getting on with the job. |
takeiteasy,
Honestly no idea and I think I'd struggle to come up with a scenario linking fashion to OXB - even though we do have French style at the top these days.
Swerving back on topic and I don't think any of the sideshow issues (recessions, interest rates, wars, tariffs) would make much of a difference to our prospects if OXB deliver on what they have guided many times. As you know it's actually better than that, as they haven't just maintained that guidance - they have actually increased forecasts whilst sourpusses like Numis have publicly doubted that they can deliver on the original.
But here we are in the hands of OXB and at the moment they don't seem to want to blow their own trumpet.
The reasons? Well we just don't know. This morning over the space of 2 seconds we had 25 trades marked "SINT". That's not normal for OXB historically (masses of SINT trades) but it is of late.
Is it connected to OXB insiders not buying for a long time now and the apparent reluctance of Frank to be the same fount of news which he was when he took over the job? I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was.
The watched pot never boils though and we just have to wait and see.
On the upside, OXB is in a sector which traditionally rides recessions quite well and the maintained guidance for this year is great. |
Why pick on poor old Illumina Harry - any thoughts...
I see the tariffs for Canada/Mexico put on hold for a month - we seem to be in an information war to hurtle the markets up and down like a yo-yo for the benefits of the hedge funds no doubt. |
I'd also add to that the point that if he does block WuXi with the biosecure act, then there are capacity constraints here to be considered for specific medicines / medical products - would he really deprive sick patients in the US by increasing the cost of already expensive medicine? Would medicine even be included in tariffs?
Let's see what happens as we all know Don's playbook by now which is to propose something shocking before horse-trading down to what he actually wants. |
If we produce US bound vector in our US sites then there is no tariff? |
What is the take on DT here - pharma in cross hairs for future tariffs, but UK arguing that they are an exception from EU and should be exempted. Can anything be read either way at this point... |
We aren't. Casgevy uses a non-viral delivery method. |
I guess if OXB are commenting on this on LinkedIn then they must have been involved. sickle cell gene therapy to be made available on the NHS. Vertex pharmaceuticals. |
I'm sure it does, they aren't mutually exclusive - OXB can also help make their client's existing therapies more efficiently. As we have seen they have won new late stage business very recently. |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
