Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 18/6/2024 18:24

There are a couple of possible homes for the money which we do know about boadicea, but how realistic I don't know.

There does seem to be a route to exercise the option on the last 20% of Homology early if it changes ownership. As Homology is now a part of Q32 Bio then maybe another 20m Euros makes that possible without taking our cash balance too low for future contingencies. Alternatively they wait until March next year when the other side will definitely trigger it.

Then of course there is the loan. 50m USD which is shown as £38.5m in the '23 annual report. £6.3m in interest last year? That loan is a 4 year loan from October '22. If the charges / penalties for paying it off early are cheaper than the remaining interest is likely to be, then does this 20m Euros make going debt free attractive to OXB?

Maybe the AGM on Monday will have an announcement to go with the resolutions?

[boadicea] 18/6/2024 17:41

Was today's news a bit of deck-clearing before the big event?

[steeplejack] 18/6/2024 13:00

Makes sense to me.

[harry s truman] 18/6/2024 11:48

gh,

Something I've written before (probably too many times) but it can't be done unless the major holders (many who are in at much higher levels - like Serum with 3% at just under £15 per share) say yes.

To my mind there is only one buyer. They are the richest listed company in Europe and they already hold 12% of OXB, recently stating that they intend to use their weight loss drug windfall to buy speciality service companies to the pharma industry.

IM are undoubtedly a very wealthy private company, but we are talking different leagues to Novo.

So my prediction remains that Novo will sit on their enormous cash pile until OXB get their share price back to a level where a normal sales buyout multiple would placate all the other major holders. At that point OXB becomes a NN company and I suspect everybody will be happy.

[gutterhead] 18/6/2024 11:13

If ever there was an optimal time to take us out, it would be around now.
Cash positive, derisked and growing
It would have to a significant premium to today’s price and that’s the potential blocker as the predator wouldn’t want to be seen as overpaying.
Interesting times

[steeplejack] 18/6/2024 10:56

I regard the news as positive.IM could well have been given the impression by OXB that it was best to take stock sooner rather than later.OXBs share price has been pretty dull over the last month in line with the US Nasdaq biotech index.

[harry s truman] 18/6/2024 10:39

I suppose it's a possibility Dom, but on my ADVFN monitor page there is quite a portion which seems to mimic OXB's daily ups and downs. I don't think we will ever know for sure.

We do know (for sure) that we are about to start commercial production with another CAR-T (in addition to Novartis - maybe J&J) which significantly strengthens our revenue going forwards over the life of that drug (usually many years).

So we know for sure that OXB have slotted this in before a multiple myeloma deal which we know is soon to start. The rest is a bit of a mystery - but quite a pleasant one to ponder.

[dominiccummings] 18/6/2024 10:33

However, the price action over the recent weeks (sold down on open, then again in the close) suggests that someone has been carefully managing the share price

[harry s truman] 18/6/2024 10:22

This isn't the news which would have the insiders embargoed as it was all public.

OXB didn't need the money as they turned the year with cash of £103.7 million, told us that there was very little capex planned and that we would be broadly breakeven on operations this year. QED no immediate need for cash.

The timing of this was down to OXB not IM.

OXB would still get the same amount of money from IM whether they issued more or less shares than today in September as it's a contractual clause which IM were tied into for a fixed amount of cash in exchange for a variable amount of new shares.

My take on this (caution the glass half full here) is that the timing when OXB don't need the cash is a thankyou to IM with an eye to what is comming.

IM sold us ABL for an unbelievably low multiple of sales and then also put in 10m Euro in cash to fund the transition of ABL to exactly what OXB needed.

If OXB have now looked at what might happen in the next quarter and decided it's right to let ABL have the shares at the average today, then I'm fine with that and see it as fair given what they did for us.

Those of us who have been here for a while might remember when we ended up borrowing from a very sharp outfit who on top of onerous loan terms also wanted their share of the company for free (wasn't it 4%?) as a signing on tribute. After the loan term ended they then sold those free shares down against us as a thank you. This RNS today is a much fairer and more acceptable arrangement.

[cousinit] 18/6/2024 08:45

I stand corrected!

[boadicea] 18/6/2024 08:41

Actually the price was 30-day VWAP, not 6m....
"share price of 325p per ordinary share, being the 30-day VWAP to closing on 17 June 2024."
This could shift materially over a period of a few weeks particularly if a major event were announced in that time. One can only speculate on whether the timing of this event might have a connection with the imminence or otherwise of any such event.

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 08:38

If I was IM I would buy in asap for cheapest price - why would I wait and overpay?

[cousinit] 18/6/2024 08:18

The market doesn't like uncertainty, and in picky markets even relatively minor uncertainty could be used as a stick to beat the share price with...

As the price for IM was the 6m VWAP price, the volume over the recent results would still be a chunky weighting. If the share price moved higher in the coming months it would need volume as well to pull the calculated price materially higher.

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 08:08

Being kind to us as shareholders as this in effect acted as a major hand brake on the share price going up in my view....let's see if this is right or not with how share price moves now

[marwalker] 18/6/2024 08:01

So at OXB discretion till September?Which way do you want to play itOXB thinks that it is unlikely there will be much better share price in that period so go now. OrOXB thinks the share price will be much higher and wants a good deal for IM ?

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 07:59

The share price now that has been agreed was absolutely not known by us - was it?

[boadicea] 18/6/2024 07:58

"As previously communicated this investment follows Oxford Biomedica's acquisition of ABL Europe SAS, ....."

On that basis it was a known factor and would not appear to necessitate an embargo on insider trading - but wdik.

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 07:45

I think the timing was any time up to end September (maybe wrong), so I simply think they have been pragmatic to choose now...removes important uncertainty around OXB...

[cousinit] 18/6/2024 07:40

It is, but the issuing of shares was at OXB's discretion, I believe?

With the shares bouncing around just over 300 the the VWAP was unlikely to exceed 325 until more news arrived. I guess it also heads off questions of timing etc at the AGM. Plus the E20m of cash arrives, which does earn interest these days

[marwalker] 18/6/2024 07:32

Surely this is but confirmation of the execution of what was agreed months ago ?

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 07:28

Personal thought really - but the timing is very cute as the election falls before the results and (use words carefully) hedge funds might consider to try a bear raid to drive share price down on a temporary basis until end July, it the election does cause temporary instability to UK small caps.

This may only be a small risk but very unwelcome given the great progress, so the wording of the RNS, timing taken together I suspect manage this risk - let's see what the market thinks...

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 07:13

To answer a lot of debate about lack of BOD share purchases, this transaction would have held everyone up from buying as it would have been clear to them all what this agreed price was looking like and not to us as we have all been unaware i.e. they were all insiders to this.
Happy to take other views...

[pharmaboy3] 18/6/2024 07:08

Here's the RNS for our BB friendsOxford Biomedica PLC - Subscription of shares by Institut Mérieux #OXB @OxfordBioMedic HTTps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/01e1bb7e-500c-4d85-bd44-c39ecc40eaa6 #voxmarkets

[takeiteasy] 18/6/2024 07:03

Nice RNS, now we know why we have been in a holding pattern for 25 days :)