 gh,
I know you have seen me make this point before, and yes it may just be a coincidence, but after Novo Holdings buy into OXB in 2019 there are people joining who we would not normally expect to join a relatively small company like OXB.
I think I gave a few examples, but the obvious ones in order of arrival are Roch (long time CEO of UCB which is 5bn in sales) then Seb (former VP of CDMO for Merck which is 60,000 employees & 20bn in sales) and finally Frank (former CEO of Rentschler Biopharma, which is only a little bigger than new OXB, but twice the sales and profitable).
I'm guessing that both Roch and Seb would be extremely well paid and optioned up with their deals at UCB and Merck, but Rentschler Biopharma is a private company and so your point about share options is a good one, but Frank almost certainly would have had some performance related pay via another route.
I seriously doubt that Frank's head was turned by money as I expect he has an awful lot of that by now. My little pet theory (now available on UKGold as a box set) is that Novo Holdings have long had this plan (probably knocked back at least 2 years by covid) where they wanted to build a CDMO to rival Lonza / TF (and perhaps a plan to get a jump on them in pure cell therapy).
Step 1, bring in a chairman who has run a multinational and is happy to guide the first part of going global (USA via Homology) whilst chopping everything which isn't cell therapy / gene delivery CDMO.
Step 2, get him to bring in CDMO premier league players (Seb, who is French like Roch and was also on the advisory board of the family firm who owned the move into the EU and the 2 sites in France).
Step 3, bring in a successful CDMO CEO in Frank (also French, but I would imagine that is pure coincidence, because if Roch already knew Frank then there would be no need for the head-hunters).
The head-hunters would have put Roch in touch with Frank (Roch is Chair and CEO at this point) and Roch then told Frank something which made him abandon a fantastic job with a successful company where he could have easily eased into retirement (Dom's point). What did they offer?
As mentioned, I don't think it will be money. I think it will more likely have been the possibility of leading / being instrumental in building something much bigger.
So my pound is still on some permutation here where Novo split the remainder of Catalent and all the cell therapy parts of Catalent merge with OXB to become the biggest cell and gene therapy CDMO - meaning Frank will eventually retire as chief of quite a big deal.
That may of course simply be a long line of coincidences with me making them fit a story, whilst Roch only said something along the lines of "look, at the moment it's nothing special at the bottom line, but we have X number of partners at Y stage in trials and if you just keep it on the rails until Z date then there's going to be an avalanche of commercial work and you literally won't be able to go wrong".
I still think the Novo boss saying he intends to buy up companies fitting OXB's description is a big clue. Also, if it was just a huge amount of work then they wouldn't be in what is obviously a closed period for so long - wouldn't they all be buying shares when they could otherwise? |
Stock options, a share of the spoils |
Mmm. What sort of story did the headhunter have to tell that could persuade a successful CEO away from his profitable, private CDMO, near his home and family to take on a similar company in England. |
Thanks Phil,
(Quote)
How did you come to join OXB?
I was approached by a headhunter. As I researched OXB, I became intrigued by its unique focus and expertise in cell and gene therapy. At the time, I was with another CDMO called Renschler Biopharma, where things were going exceptionally well. I hadn’t planned to leave. However, the opportunity at OXB was so compelling that I decided to make the leap. I’m grateful to my previous employer, who graciously allowed me to exit my contract early to pursue this new challenge.
(Unquote)
I wonder what that "so compelling" opportunity was? I expect we will find out this year. |
I have a feeling (needs someone from the land of charts to confirm) that closing below 400p today (albeit just) will be a threshold crossed in the wrong direction.
Jefferies putting out a nice note by way of an introduction would be very welcome at this point, but I'll not hold my breath.
As mentioned many times over the previous 3 calendar months of nothing, OXB don't need an excuse to put out news of work or a trading statement. Even if they want to quote actual figures, then as long as they state those are unaudited then no rules would be broken.
They appear to be deliberately quiet but the reason is unclear. If it's something else similar to the IM/ABL deal then we will never guess. If it's Novo Holdings then there have been a lot of clues. Frank has told us that we have a second commercial CAR-T deal without ever divulging more, so possibly that and it has just taken forever (normal in this business).
If they are flexible with the promised trading update (they may be waiting for something to happen first) and don't mind a very long notice of results date, then they could do a lot worse than Monday morning. |
A new interview with Frank |
Indeed, nice not to worry at all. |
In which case,i think he's in a very good place! |
Harry will be happy with whatever happens to OXB, or even if nothing happens to OXB. |
I wander whether OXB ever ponder whether its really worth being listed on the LSE.Arguably,the stock is undervalued,daily stock turnover is low but there all the expenses plus the regulations to comply with.Wouldn't the company be better off being private or part of a larger entity ? |
re:#9732 above.
There we have it, quite clearly. The SINT 'trades are 'to improve market efficiency' by maintaining a clear price indication where real trades are absent.
However, trades are not absent, they are merely vastly outnumbered by SINT trades telling the market 'what the price should be'.
"if not properly managed, they can lead to concerns about market manipulation or unfair trading practices" It is difficult to escape the indication of that conclusion.
What we now need to know is, WHO is posting the SINT trades? Is it one entity or more than one? If we could find this, it might be worth sending something to the Competition and Markets Authority that is responsible for the market. |
I asked:
OXB have released no information for nearly 18 months, recently the share price seems closely bound in limits whilst daily we see hundreds of SINT 'trades'. What is their purpose and effect?
Copilot rep[lied:
It sounds like you're keeping a close eye on Oxford Biomedica (OXB) and their share price movements! The lack of information from OXB over the past 18 months might be causing some uncertainty among investors, which could explain the share price being closely bound within limits.
Regarding the SINT (Systematic Internaliser) trades, these are trades executed by investment firms on their own account, outside of traditional trading venues. The purpose of SINT trades is to provide liquidity and facilitate price formation in the market2. They can help improve market efficiency by allowing trades to occur even when there isn't a direct match on a trading venue.
However, the effect of SINT trades can be mixed. On one hand, they can enhance market liquidity and transparency. On the other hand, if not properly managed, they can lead to concerns about market manipulation or unfair trading practices2.
Does this help clarify things a bit? |
When it comes to overseas investors mulling the purchase of a 'foreign' security,a primary consideration is the outlook for the local currency in which the security is designated.Thus,if sterling is regarded as a weak currency,that perception combined with the fact that you have to pay UK stamp duty will put overseas investors off buying UK securities,especially illiquid smaller caps.Meanwhile,UK institutions,outside of a predominantly bond orientated portfolio,will be keener to pursue opportunities in securities in hard currency areas ie the US.This might seem all very obvious but the resulting vulnerability of UK companies ,languishing on undemanding ratings on the LSE,is likely to be become ever more obvious to corporate predators at least.However,given the general lack of interest in UK equities per se,they'll be precious little warning from the rumour mill ,until a corporate bid is slapped on the table. |
But something going on that we are not a party to? |
Certainly not in a takeover frenzy |
Oh dear. That was shortlived. Up 12p, for 15 minutes, now down 15p! |
Sudden jump. USA up and at it? |
No opening auction. No trades? |
Anybody else watch the traded volume today?
Sleepy and very low all morning, then repeat act this afternoon until 16:11 when 37,600 and then 62,000 shares go through, then the closing auction is 22,000 shares and then another 89,000 shares after close.
Quarter of a million is good volume for us these days but presumably a lot of selling in that for us to close down? |
Ok, thanks for explaining Harry |
Moving up to 2 brokers instead of replacing - is that a signal in itself? |
Did we like Jeffries when they were here before? |
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/health/weightloss/novo-nordisk-posts-net-profit-beat-as-wegovy-sales-jump-107-in-fourth-quarter/ar-AA1yrayB
only posting this as this firm gets so much airplay here .... |
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