You wonder if it’s been a tree shake before news? |
I don't know Dom, but today ADVFN popup ads for me have been for Castle Air private VIP helicopter charters. I'm taking it as a sign. |
Looking like we'll close back over £4. What on earth is going on? |
Appreciate that, thank you. So basically the advice would always be to ring up in person to get the best price for a sizable quantity or I suppose simply set a limit trade and hope for the best. I'd always assumed that the partial order book which we can see on OXB's website is the limit trades sat there waiting to either be taken or expire, but had no way to know that for sure. |
 Below is a commentary on NMS .I would guess that normal market size for OXB is perhaps as low as a thousand shares.This means that invariably,a marketmaker will find himself working an order.In the past,a market maker would offer to do an initial trade which was bigger than NMS to kick off the order presuming he was given the balance of the order to work on.Such niceties may of long gone but its not in the interests of a reasonable size holder to go dumping stock in a disorganised fashion and compromise his portfolio valuation.In a thin market like OXB, MMs will be keen to keep a low profile.Its difficult to know what they're up to.Most believe that when an MM pushes up the bid price,he's working a buy order but its quite feasible that he's carrying stock and is trying to offload it by encouraging buyers on the blue. "if you call your broker and ask them to deal in the stock, you can be guaranteed a minimum fill in a certain size and price at least. But if you request a quoted price to buy or sell online then the market makers are not obliged to honour any price or size of transactions. This means that no minimum price or size can be guaranteed when you request a market maker quote through your online broker." |
As stressed many times before, my knowledge of market workings is limited on a good day, but if you look at our chart above and then compare it to the trade list, that crashing dip and then immediate bounce back seems to be about one single £23k trade just before it.
I don't know what the NMS is for OXB as that seems to be something which never gets quoted with any share these days, but I'm suspecting that if you can do that to a £400m+ market cap share with a trade of £23k then the market in OXB at the moment must be very thin. |
Anyone who can see the share register (not me) will work out pretty quickly if one of our large holders is having to sell some. As one of our angels of doom turned up yesterday to gloat about it, I'm guessing that is probably the most likely explanation.Alternatively, is it possible (or even legal) for someone to try to keep a lid on the price for another reason? I would have thought not.If this is worrying Frank then he can easily do something about it, but as he hasn't then I expect he's aware of what is happening and why. |
The share price took a real pounding yesterday but there always seems to be a late buy to get attempt to get the share price back to evens. What is this manipulation? |
Private punters are indeed well down the listOXB don't need them in rights issues or placingsThe share price will come into focus before incentive options are due to expire Those dates may be instructive in the planned schedule of co development |
I'm looking at the 440k traded today (I only saw one big trade in all of that which was 123k before lunch) so a lot of smaller trades made up a day with 4x our usual volume?
Those of us with reasonable memories will remember luminaire here in the past predicting an imminent end for OXB, but then there were lots of redemptions from funds post covid and of course OXB had their biggest ever contract end, the combination of both there forcing 2 US funds to sell and we could see what was going on with the shorting chart. Not a great time, but also not really reflective of OXB's long term prospects either.
Come forward a few years and the covid vaccine contract is a memory, OXB had a little over £81m in cash at the interims and is guiding a profit for the year we are in.
Now I can believe that RR (who seems to know as much about economics as me) can drive more people into withdrawing money from funds (so more OXB selling from the likes of Liontrust to meet redemptions) but would anyone really be foolhardy enough to short OXB to make a few quid out of that when we are 2 weeks into our record revenue and return to profit year?
Surely not. We've all done mad things from time to time but short a company which every day seems to become a more attractive bid target? OK, 6 "people" think luminaire is onto something other than the Columbian marching powder, but I think we all know from past years when badger got a bit mixed up with his accounts mid-conversation that 6 votes on here doesn't necessarily mean 6 different people.
I just can't believe that anyone would go short knowing that it's within Frank's whim to put out a RNS with unaudited year end cash and a reminder that this year is a profit?
Scancell released a really great RNS the other day about one of their trials and they are down. You mention two much bigger companies.
Headlines in the grown-up papers over the last few days have the markets deciding that the pound is too expensive and talk of an emergency budget. My amateur take is that we're into more redemptions here again as Labournomics do what they always do. I don't think RR has the gold reserves or mobile phone radio spectrums or similar which Gordon Brown had to fund his giveaways.
My guess for today would be something to do with this. If it carries on then I expect Frank to issue something, or alternatively something else might render it all irrelevant. |
The mood surrounding healthcare is fairly nervous currently.Moderna disappointed yesterday but even a very solid update today by Eli Lily was poorly received with the stock currently down 7 percent.Trump is fairly scathing about pharmaceutical companies believing them to be guilty of profiteering at consumers expense.In this environment,it would be reassuring if OXB was to provide an update but in my experience,healthcare companies invariably behave as if they’ve got better things to do than keep their shareholders,especially private clients,closely informed about every little corporate development,afterall they have to issue RNSs when required.
Many years ago,i worked for a stockbroker who was then primary lead broker for Oxford Instruments which had recently been listed.I visited the company along with our analyst and others to acquaint ourselves with the company.After a tour round we had a cup of coffee with some of the senior executives.They expressed surprise that our investment analyst (along with other brokers) wished to delve quite so deeply into the company’s operations.One executive expressed the view that a third party was afterall highly unlikely to appreciate what was going on as well as the management of the company itself and the brokers would do you well to be guided by the company when it came to formulating an opinion.I don’t think that such an attitude was unusual at that time and i would be surprised if it it isn’t pretty prevalent among company managements today.Harry might have an exemplary knowledge of OXB but i would suggest he is an exception among private investors when it comes to the esoteric world of biotech.What i’m saying in rather long winded way,is that companies like OXB don’t regard updating the punters as as a priority despite being listed.Large institutional and industry shareholders can always get in touch to keep up to speed as Harry suggests and frankly,private client punters are well down the pecking order. |
Great to get such an intelligent observation? |
Shares lower than they were five years ago.Short it and laugh.Lemmings and mushrooms only. |
Sean,
I think it depends which shareholders - i.e. small shareholders then you might have something. Those who we know the names of (3%+) will all get much more regular briefings than we do. It is how it is with most companies.
It's only weeks since they reaffirmed "Profitable on an EBITDA level in 2025" in page 13 on this
A lot of shares are red today. |
Harry S Truman 13 Jan '25 - 19:46 - 9544 of 9555
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
Is OXB at the JPM event this week? |
Could be forgiven for thinking OXB management don't give a damn about shareholders. |
More than 250K shares trades by 14.30pm, last few months support at 425-430p evaporated, no trades after 14.30 as lately. Things seem a little different in 2025? |
#JPM2025CDMO map.Nice chart, and we seem to be placed with the big boys on gene therapy.Is this by T/O? HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/pharma-source_cdmo-cdmolive-activity-7284841685539250176-APjg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
But the OXB share price is all to do with OXB management? |
No UT / Auction trade at open and then 18 consecutive SINT trades. It's far from normal for us but I don't know what it means. |
Another pound of Dom's money that we are more or less back to opening again at close Phil.
Whatever this is, it seems to have precious little to do with the fundamentals of OXB. |
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