 PB,
Cabaletta seems a great partner for OXB, and if that CAR-T comes good (big market) then a very important one too. But none of their trials which are partnered with our tech are anywhere near pivotal (decision stage) trials yet, so Cabaletta could very well turn out to be a very lucrative partner for whoever buys OXB.
Just to add a little bit to that (the theory / guess that OXB is soon to be a Novo H company), I think we all "know" that the only reason OXB has 2 corporate/house (paid) brokers is because if as a small player you want to be invited to present at the biggest investor healthcare conference (JPM), then you pay JPM to be your joint broker.
OXB aren't presenting at JPM this year (we are simply attending with our man Konstantin Kazarian available to meet). With my current mindset (and I accept this is perhaps seeing completely spurious events as fitting a theory) it makes me wonder if JPM have received a note from OXB saying "thanks but as from the end of this term we won't be requiring you" (what would a private company want a market broker for?) and so that saw our usual presentation slot go elsewhere. |
My opinion (from no knowledge here) would be to guess that figure is an "off the cuff" headline figure. On most UK policies the rebuilding cost is nothing like the market value and I'm guessing the biggest problem for most will be getting a builder any time soon.
The Americans seem to deal with these things much better than the UK though - look at the hurricane which hit New Orléans, the flooding from that was a huge disaster but the president waved the magic wand of federal disaster relief and workers set off from all over the country to fix the job. Much less restriction on working too, as long as the building inspector is happy that it's done "to code" (for that state).
Additionally I would imagine that natural disaster (a bit like acts of war) is one of the many clauses where the insurance companies can dodge their full obligations - and at some point anyone of a certain age is very lucky if they haven't been on the receiving end of that. |
Unrelated question, if the insurance cost of rebuilding the luxury homes in LA costs insurers over $300B will it cause another sub prime like meltdown? |
Must be worth a bit of a pop,plus #JPM2025 weekHTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_cabaletta-strategic-priorities-in-2025-activity-7284556346044104705-ZF0P?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_androidHTTps://oxb.com/oxford-biomedica-expands-agreement-with-cabaletta-bio-adding-new-viral-vector-programme-for-cd19-car-t-therapies/ |
Temporary, it's all temporary. The big cheeses back after the winter break, showing the underlings what they do. Same after every holiday period. |
These external metrics and / or (closer to home) whatever HMG's cabinet of all-stars might have in their sights next is probably relevant, but...
Tomorrow is 14 months since the last OXB insider bought a single share.
You all know my guess about that one, but from whatever side I approach the conundrum, I always end up thinking that the apparent OXB news rationing last year and the longest period I can ever remember for not a single insider to have bought a share is very much related to a bigger scenario which is still a mystery to us.
We as shareholders here on this BB know that we are now a fortnight into our all-time record revenue year. So we know that and I'm pretty sure that the people with enough shares / clout to be briefed privately by the company will know that too (how many have sold over the last year?).
But for the other 95% of the potential market of OXB buyers out there who either don't read ADVFN or don't have more money than Oprah Winfrey, how would they guess that OXB are on track for something like £180m in sales this year and a profit?
As the board's job (and especially Frank's job spec) is to do the best thing for the company's shareholders, then my conclusion remains that whatever is stopping the insiders buying is also stopping Frank blowing the company's trumpet in anything other than what he had to do at the Jefferies conference, which was basically a pared down interims presentation with no financials.
When was the last time we saw / heard of a new note put out from a covering broker? As those happen after the CEO/CFO has talked to those analysts, then can we assume that OXB isn't doing that either?
So we still don't know why the insiders can't can't buy and why OXB don't want to talk about being in a record year.
My assumption is that one of these mornings a RNS will clear that up, but of course it doesn't have to be at 7:00am does it? |
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/watchlist?tab=Related&id=a33pk2&ocid=ansMSNMoney11&duration=1D&src=b_secdans&relatedQuoteId=a33pk2&relatedSource=MlAlMost people use the well advertised VIX to gauge market sentiment.Yes,its volatile but as you can discern,over the years,its been a good deal higher (fearful) than currently.The VIX can be employed as a hedging instrument so its fairly erratic. |
is this the mood amongst folks here - amazing how things change so quickly with US investors...there was initially a big jump with the DT arrival was there not? |
What's Blackrock's involvement?Well, if my memory serves me well they control more than a dozen funds each invested in OXB. While it may be illegal to control the stock price through a single fund, there could be some funds buying and some funds selling, naturally ' for their own individual targets' (having the overall effect of holding the price down that we see) No knowledge. Just my ramblings. |
Jez,
If I was 100% sure then I would sell everything else and pile into OXB, so I have no problem with a different view. I obviously have less doubts than you though. As I have said before I'd really quite like us all to be here one year from now looking at the rewards of owning a c£250m revenue company which earns a better than 20% EBITDA margin.
Sean,
Blackrock buy in after the Novo Holdings chief says publicly that he intended to use the windfall weight loss drug profits to buy up carefully selected speciality service companies to the biotech / pharma sector.
Blackrock would be very unlikely to be following OXB. I'm pretty certain that they would be following the boss of a 150bn investment fund. It would be very easy for them to see what Novo Holdings owned in their growth portfolio and take a view on which of those Novo might be about to take further. Remember that Novo H had already bid for world's no3 CDMO when Blackrock crossed that threshold. Maybe they also thought that a speciality C> CDMO might bolt very nicely into the remains of Catalent at Novo Holdings.
Isn't that what hedge funds do - look at situations like this and place a bet? |
Can somebody explain to me the significance of Blackrock being shareholders please. |
H, i think your Novo theory is tenuous at best. As i have previously stated, once BlackRock became stockholders, this stagnation period was inevitable.
It was very surprising to me as to the lack of debate when BR initially invested. Believe me from experience, their investment is very significant. For good or ill, i am not sure yet. |
Phil,
If I'm anything close with the theory-guess about Novo Holdings, then my further guess would be that they probably don't have the ready cash to do it (not cash equivalents - which they have mountains of) until Novo Nordisk completes the transfer of the cash in exchange for Catalent's 3 huge fill/finish sites. Stripping something that big out of one business sounds a logistical / regulatory nightmare to me - but the plants are really important to NN and they have had 11 months to plan it, so they should be ready. How long will it take? No idea.
Back onto things we are "sure" about, and I know you watch the FT OXB page and so will already have seen that of the 8 covering brokers for OXB, the lowest revenue forecast for 2025 is now £151m (highest £179m) and also know that OXB's previous all time high year (fed by 24/7 pandemic vaccine bashing) was £142.8m in 2021.
So on ordinary work with no exceptional windfalls, even the most pessimistic covering broker for OXB has them beating their record pandemic year revenue by the best part of £10m (highest forecast beats it by the the best part of £40m) and yet OXB maintain their vow of silence.
I know people have mentioned audited figures, but that only really matters for the official preliminary results which they can't release without the auditor's sign off. For a trading statement / business update, Frank can release what he wants when he wants and Lucy would have known in December the year to end November figures to the penny and also what was due in / out in December.
So they could have put something out towards the end of December with the words "are due to close as per forecast" or, at the beginning of the year they could have said "pleased to confirm that we closed the year as guided" (or similar) but they didn't.
Badger, Luminaire, AnDy and the others could easily explain this as OXB going bust, but we know from the interims what the first 6 months were and what OXB had in further binding work at that point.
So, it's all going rather well but for some reason OXB are reluctant to blow that trumpet. My best explanation remains that OXB are expecting a very friendly approach from their biggest shareholder (who has just bought the world's no 3 CDMO) and don't want to rock the boat.
I'm open to other explanations of why a CEO who had good reason to talk up the prospects of his company and share price wouldn't, because I can't think of a good one. |
Well, we can expect an RNS tomorrow then Gareth! |
I was thinking about mowing the lawn this weekend. |
They are still there if not a little quiet! ;) |
I think its a disenchantment with UK equities albeit,in the absence of an update OXB is liable to drift.European stockmarkets look a poor choice for 2025 compared to both US equities and Asian markets.That said,US equities can’t push on indefinitely.Come the second half the year,i’m concerned that US markets could correct creating a significant negative impact upon equities worldwide.
We know that UK institutions have orientated away from UK equities over the last two decades and despite Government waffle,i don’t see that trend being meaningful reversed.So,its down to private punters and overseas investors but weak sterling won’t encourage the latter.It will,however,potentially encourage overseas industry competitors to use their dollars to purchase sterling assets. |
Is this just the macro backdrop causing this drop, or are investors getting the jitters with the (relatively) silent running? |
Time for more cash under the bed or into gold? Four more year of Starmer to find it. |
Interesting Harry.I see what you're saying.There's nothing to stop Novo Holdings being rather avuncular if not benign when it comes to its dealing with favoured investments.Meanwhile UK equities languish.Reeves budget has exacerbated a tricky economic scenario.The slide in sterling is making UK companies cheaper by the day as far as overseas predators are concerned. |
And not a whisper to shareholders!
So it looks like a takeover is on the cards but at what price? Time for a New Year's quiz Harry? |
Peter Nolan CEO of BFB said "We are delighted to take assignment of this patent portfolio which we look forward to developing as part of our BFB-201 program." |
Peter Nolan !!!!
A great guy btw. Lovely man. |
Peter Nolan is CEO there, so that explains how that happened. |
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