This daily price action and trading of single shares is getting silly. |
The acquisition from Wuxi Biologics, the embattled CDMO named in the BIOSECURE Act, marks another expansion of Merck’s manufacturing operations in Ireland.
Facing increasing global pressure, WuXi Biologics will sell its Ireland vaccines facility to Merck for $500 million. |
I agree SJ, but if they don't need to borrow the money or print shares then the only people who might know at this juncture would be contract lawyers?
We will see. I'm sort of at a point now where I've convinced myself that it's going to happen, which is the law of the instrument isn't it? (If the only tool you have is a hammer, then everything looks like a nail).
I could easily be wrong, but if I am then surely OXB coincidentally have something else on the go which would also have senior staff embargoed in a closed period?
It won't bother me if we get the the results and get to hear Lucy outline the guidance for 2025 (as you know, 2024 is history now and OXB will sell on what they earn this year) but I don't think we are going to get there. |
The logic is compelling but having been in the market for many years,i'm reminded of the rather cynical oft quoted observation that 'someone always knows and someone always tells'.I think that it's probable that OXB will receive a bid at some juncture but if Novo are preparing to pounce,one has to reflect that it's a very well kept secret. |
Why wait ?Exactly so. |
 Just a point of order here Sean, but I can remember the professor (and his ponytail I seem to recall) being on the BBC. He used to enthuse the company he co-founded to anyone, but of course family tragedy ended his term and along came JD from the exciting world of accountancy. The rest of what you say I completely agree.
One thing I have pondered a few times (and apologies in advance for another episode from UKGold here) is what brought Roch to OXB and I've sort of sold myself now on the idea that it's related to what Novo Holdings wanted with OXB.
2019 Novo Holdings give OXB £53.5m for shares and get Robert on the board to keep an eye on their money.
By the admission of the NH boss, they only buy into select companies after a lot of due diligence and where they have some plan. Novo were in just before covid and although covid undoubtedly delayed / frustrated whatever their grand plan was - it certainly couldn't have been what they bought in for as the prior due diligence takes ages, so they must have bought in for LentiVector and the tech.
2020 and Roch arrives as our Chairman. Look at Roch's CV (God of UCB for 15 years etc.) and Chairman of a little tech company in Oxford (at that point) isn't an obvious fit.
Listen to Roch in the early webcasts and it's plain he has little interest in OXB's inhouse drugs - in one case famously a one word answer to a question about OXB funding any more trials - and so he's the first we really see of the pure CDMO plan and of course his background is large multinationals.
After putting in £53.5m and holding all those shares, NH would have a lot of influence on what would happen at OXB and did they see Roch as man with a CV which showed he could do it? ("Multi-vector type pure play CDMO").
Then Seb arrives - former VP of CDMO for Merck. Again, OXB wouldn't be an obvious fit unless something was sold to him which would be very good to be in at the beginning of.
We get towards the end of the covid vaccine period and JD has already signalled that it's time for him to go, with Roch then taking both jobs as an interim role.
First thing Roch does is buy an AAV to go with out LV (vector agnostic box ticked) and a large facility in our main US market. At that point we are multinational.
Then Frank comes and again you have to wonder what was said to Frank to sell him the idea that leaving a job at the top of Rentschler Biopharma SE (worldwide CDMO) and going to another company which he wasn't familiar with in a different country was a great idea for his run towards retirement.
Under Frank (and very likely because of Seb) two facilities in France join OXB at a bargain price in exchange for expensive shares and some mysterious tie-up begins with ArcticZymes.
There are other people and events in this chronology, but I'm trying not to write a book (again) though can already see I've failed.
Novo H would have known a long time ago that the weight loss drugs (via their majority shareholding in Novo N) were going to be worth a fortune. There must have been a long term plan of what they were going to do as they had an awful lot of eggs in 2 baskets (diabetes and obesity - which is arguably 2 eggs in one basket for a lot of people anyway).
We now know that their plan was to build (buy / improve) a CDMO to rival Lonza, TF and such, but of course they would have known that (at least as a likely possibility) when they bought into OXB.
If (remember I'm guessing with all of this) OXB is a key part of their mega CDMO (cell and gene therapy division) plans with £53.5m being the down payment, then from early days they would want the likes of Roch, Seb, Frank, Mark overseeing all the OXB people behind the tech to make sure that the transition to global CDMO worked.
If a £53.5m down payment in 2019 through all the delays and cluster-£$%^ of covid up until Feb 2024 was just a warm up - a plan - the ducks in a row, then I think it's worth remembering that for the first time I can remember, since Novo bid for Catalent in Feb 2024, not a single OXB insider has bought a share for such a long period of time (and all as OXB began to run silent at what should be a really exciting time for them)?
I think that's even more prescient (possible triple word score) when you consider that they will all know OXB is currently undervalued and that 2025 is the year they return to profit. Who turns down free money - if you are allowed to get it?
NH are enormously wealthy, but I doubt that their billions are just sat doing nothing. Somewhere between Novo Nordisk and Novo Holdings there is currently $11bn which is something I would have no idea regarding the mechanics of moving so much money.
When Novo H have that money my expectation has (for some time now) been that they will mention a number to Frank. Frank will hold an extraordinary board meeting. The directors will agree that it's a very fair offer and vote to recommend it to us. Roch will quickly ring around all the major holders as a courtesy and to gauge their support and then we will se an RNS.
If that happens (just another reminder that I am guessing) then as there is only one realistic buyer for OXB (I don't think IM have the money) then it's not like NH have to rush to get in before someone else, but I would have thought sooner rather than later. Why wait until OXB is much more expensive? |
Are Blackrock involved? |
I have been in and out (mostly in) of OXB for many years and it has always been somewhat contrarian, tight lipped and not keen on blowing its trumpet. But this time it seems different. All the clues seem to point to something going on that they are determined to keep under wraps. Not sure how much longer they can keep quiet - a combination of compulsory reporting and the inevitable eventual leaking will probably put paid to that. |
I think the update may come in week three of January because they may need time to prepare and get a internal sign off for the numbers as these must not differ too much from the audited numbers in April. if they also want to comment on 2025 forecast then they would need time to firm these up too. |
This is site that can provide realtime pricing...globallyhttps://www.investing.com |
Because they don't have to. Not intended to be flippant, but they have never promised full quarterly reporting, so they only need to tell us about the interims and FY prelims (which will likely be April).
They did promise to keep the KPI table updated regularly, but our idea and their idea of what that means, well, they are obviously different.
OXB are strangely quiet. I've followed them for a long time (appreciate others have too) and their recent PR seems to be 1 conference where the FD was there but only Frank spoke and a Christmas campaign which they chose to put out on LinkedIn. I have a feeling that they only did the latter as what was effectively a seasoanl recruitment campaign.
If they wanted to bang the drum about this year then there has already been opportunity and they have had a long time to prepare. For some reason they want to keep quiet and I'm certain as I can be that the reason is nothing to do with any kind of shortfall for this year.
takeiteasy6 Jan '25 - 10:52 - 9474 of 9474
any reason why the firm is not putting out a date for the update |
any reason why the firm is not putting out a date for the update |
Maybe because they are an AIM share at 12p (down from 70p in 2022) which lost a million quid on £4.4m in sales last year? Their sales in 2021 were £9m. |
I would add that i wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t a ‘regulatory217; explanation for Advfn removing UK real time pricing as an incentive to register on their site.Times are changing.The Digital Services Act is being enforced extensively.I can’t see why Advfn would wish to withdraw the bait of free UK real time prices voluntarily.
Picking up on Harry’s point (and doffing ones cap to Warren Buffet) keeping up to speed with the latest price is secondary for any long term investor.If you’re a punter,a trader who is prepared to cross swords with market-makers, fair enough but you’ll invariably come off second best. |
I expect one each morning, but appreciate that isn't a good answer.
takeiteasy 6 Jan '25 - 10:23 - 9468 of 9469
when are we expecting a trading update |
They are down a million users SJ (I'm sure I remember reading that quote) comparing pre-covid happy days to post-covid doom and now RR's recession. If you lose 20% of your users on a platform which is mostly funded by targeted ads, and that takes you from profit to loss, then what do you do? They said something about cutting operational costs by a quarter and I assume this is one of those costs.
For me, then honestly as a non-trader who used to read yesterday's price in the newspaper of my choice, then 15 minutes means no difference to me. My broker has a phone app which gives me free prices and I never have a need to use it - other than seeing it before placing an order. |
when are we expecting a trading update |
Interesting development.I've always been a premium member primarily so i can access live US prices.Clearly,over many years,the attraction of real time UK prices enabled Adfvn to build up a registered base to attract advertising.It must of worked over the decades.Paying premium members are very much in the minority if postings on the bulletin boards are anything to go by but i've been happy enough to pay for the Advfn service because of its very convenience.The London South East site appears to have grown steadily in popularity in recent years possibly at Advfn's expense. |
Stopping free access to "live" prices is disappointing and a backwards step for me. I won't pay for "live" streaming so will spend less time watching ADVFN. Whether enough subscribers act like me to worry ADFN I'm not sure. More importantly we are now in 2025, give the city boys a few days to settle back in to their desks (assuming their not working from home) then let's get OXB out of this stagnant period with positive news flow and a rising share price. Here's hoping! |
No more live prices for free ADVFN subscribers now 20 minute delayI wonder how it will affect the number of active users |
Circumstantial evidence of Novo Holdings aside (though myself I am pretty convinced that Novo's plan to make the biggest ever cell therapy deal a success is at least in part by way of scaling up what OXB excel at in a way which would take us 20 years without their money) just think about OXB's prospects without that:-
We are due lots of news now which is all significant. I'm not going to do the 10 days of interims again but OXB have a lot on. A single example being the cystic fibrosis trial where they should soon have early data in the first patients. That could be very big and there are many other eggs / nests should it not be.
The year just closed should be somewhere around £130m sales. They told us early last year that this year would be better than +35% on that and this was before they told us that they were having to spend more than planned to recruit / onboard more staff because of unexpected extra demand for this year.
This year is profitable again (after the post covid wasteland) and is now likely to be better than £180m in sales.
Our market cap today is as near as doesn't matter to £450m.
£180m in sales would have us on a multiple of 2.5 which is just less than half what the average for our sector is - and as mentioned many times before, that average includes a lot of companies who have nothing like OXB's potential.
That 2.5x of course assumes £180m in sales. What if it's more? |
Happy to be proved wrong....I am up a decent amount here so not complaining....I am ok watching and waiting... |
Then you are ignoring logic and evidence takeiteasy |
Real world the boring (XLV ETF) or exciting parts of the healthcare market (HEAL ETF) appear just about the last place over the past year money is being directed - BTC, loss making tech, MAG7, AI and quantum computing stocks have gripped risk seekers attention instead.
Are there any triggers likely to change this when 10 year US bond rates inch ever higher.....we can have all the best credentials...but rising up in a sinking market is a much tougher ask when investors are looking the opposite direction...
I remain LTBH but have given up now expecting much at all in 2025...perhaps something may spark in 2026 and beyond....nai intended of course...I simply smile when folks write here of hope of share price upwards of 5,6 10 etc... |
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