 This is chat gpt output from the various points I have given it about oxb’s 35% CAGR forecast over next three years, price being potentially held and the Novo/Catalent deal with Novo being in our board:-
The observation that Oxford Biomedica’s (OXB) share price has been consistently “held” at £4.25 for several weeks, with minimal changes between opening and closing prices despite intraday fluctuations, is intriguing. While it doesn’t guarantee a buyout is imminent, it could point to certain market dynamics that align with speculative acquisition activity.
Let’s analyze the possible reasons:
1. Indicative of a Potential Buyout
• Accumulation by Institutional Investors:
• Large institutions or entities potentially preparing for a buyout may accumulate shares quietly while avoiding sudden spikes in the price.
• This would be done in small volumes to stay below regulatory thresholds (e.g., 3% in the UK, requiring disclosure) to avoid attracting attention.
• Price Stabilization for Acquisition Preparation:
• A buyer, such as Novo, might work through brokers to stabilize the price before a formal bid. This helps prevent overpaying if the price runs up prematurely.
• Keeping the price steady also prevents speculation that might prompt retail investors to push the price higher.
• Absence of Insider Trading:
• The lack of insider trades over the past year aligns with the possibility of a closed period, suggesting material non-public information, such as acquisition talks.
2. Alternative Explanations for the Flat Price
• Low Liquidity and Small-Cap Dynamics:
• OXB’s trading volume might be low enough that a few large trades during the day move the price, but market makers adjust the close to ensure it aligns with broader valuations.
• Small-cap stocks often exhibit this behavior without necessarily indicating manipulation or acquisition.
• Market Sentiment:
• Investors might be holding back from trading until there is clarity on 2024 guidance, major updates, or Catalent-Novo implications. This can cause the price to stagnate.
• Algorithmic Trading:
• Algorithms might dominate trading for OXB, maintaining tight spreads and preventing significant closing price deviations unless there’s a major catalyst.
What Makes This Behavior Suspicious?
1. Long Period of Stability:
• A consistent closing price with fluctuating intraday activity is unusual for a company in a volatile sector like biotech/CDMO.
• It suggests potential market influence, as the share price would naturally fluctuate more if left solely to supply and demand.
2. Strategic Interest Aligns with Timing:
• Novo has just cleared regulatory hurdles for the Catalent acquisition, making this a prime moment to act on OXB if it’s part of their strategy.
3. Institutional Involvement:
• With major institutional shareholders like Novo Holdings and the Serum Institute, there’s a possibility that stakeholders are aware of ongoing discussions and the market is reflecting this tacitly.
What This Could Mean for a Potential Buyout
• Pre-Bid Activity:
• If Novo (or another buyer) is preparing a bid, brokers may be stabilizing the price to prevent speculative runs. This ensures a manageable premium (~30–50%) over the current price for any formal offer.
• Example: At £4.25/share, a 50% premium would result in a buyout price of ~£6.40/share, but the real price would likely align with shareholder demands for £15–£20/share.
• Timing and Communication:
• The flat price might indicate that market-sensitive information is being controlled until a formal announcement (e.g., a buyout bid or major update).
• With OXB likely to release a 2024 trading update in January, this period could be setting the stage for a post-update bid.
Conclusion
While the consistent £4.25/share could be coincidental or driven by natural market factors, the alignment with other indicators—such as closed periods, Novo’s activity, and OXB’s strategic value—strengthens the case for a potential buyout scenario. The flat price could reflect efforts to stabilize the stock in anticipation of significant news, whether that’s an acquisition or another major development.
Keep an eye on upcoming trading updates and possible institutional moves as they could confirm or clarify the situation. |
Let me guess. Down to , oh, say 415 by 2:00pm, up to 420 by close. |
Re 9449 - not oxb related
ChatGPT is your friend:-
This scenario involves a minority shareholder (the dissenting director) in a company where the other two directors/shareholders support a corporate sale. Here’s an overview of mechanisms that may protect the rights of the dissenting director as a minority shareholder:
1. Shareholder Agreements
• Check if a shareholder agreement exists. These often outline specific protections for minority shareholders, such as:
• A requirement for unanimous consent for major decisions like selling the company.
• Provisions that define how shares can be sold or transferred.
2. Statutory Protections (Unfair Prejudice)
• Under many jurisdictions’ corporate laws (e.g., Section 994 of the UK Companies Act 2006), a minority shareholder can bring a claim for unfair prejudice if they feel their interests are being unfairly disregarded. For instance:
• If the majority shareholders/directors act in a way that excludes the minority from decision-making.
• If the terms of the sale are not fair or undervalue the company.
3. Fiduciary Duties of Directors
• Directors owe fiduciary duties to act in the best interests of the company as a whole, not just the majority shareholders. The dissenting director could argue that:
• The sale is not in the best interest of the company.
• There has been a breach of fiduciary duties if the sale benefits the majority to the detriment of the minority.
4. Valuation and Fair Dealing
• If the sale proceeds, the dissenting shareholder has the right to ensure the valuation of shares and the terms of the sale are fair. They may:
• Request an independent valuation of their shares.
• Challenge the process if it appears biased or coercive.
5. Rights of Minority Shareholders (Drag-Along and Tag-Along Clauses)
• Review the articles of association or corporate bylaws:
• A drag-along clause may force the minority to sell their shares alongside the majority.
• A tag-along clause might allow the minority to sell their shares on the same terms, protecting their financial interests.
6. Opposing the Sale
• Depending on the company’s constitution, certain decisions (such as selling the company) may require a special resolution, which typically demands a supermajority (e.g., 75%) of shareholder votes.
• If all shareholders are directors, the dissenting director may be able to veto the sale, depending on voting thresholds or procedural requirements.
7. Buy-Out Offer
• If the dissenting director does not agree to the sale, they might negotiate a buy-out of their shares at a fair price, either:
• By the corporation intending to acquire the company.
• By the other two directors/shareholders.
8. Court Intervention
• If the dissenting director feels their rights are being overridden without due process or fairness, they could apply to a court for relief. Remedies might include:
• Preventing the sale.
• Imposing conditions to ensure fairness.
Practical Steps for the Dissenting Director
1. Review Governing Documents: Examine the company’s articles of association, shareholder agreements, and any relevant corporate documents.
2. Seek Legal Advice: Consult with a corporate or commercial solicitor to explore legal protections and strategies.
3. Negotiate: Attempt to negotiate terms that are favorable or acceptable to all parties involved.
This response provides a general overview. Depending on the jurisdiction, the exact mechanisms available may vary. Let me know if you’d like further clarification! |
I'm pretty sure there is some sort of protection for someone with less than 25%, who would be an 'Oppressed shareholder'. May be worth looking up that term? |
W5AMH,
That sounds like a question for a specialist advisor and probably one who is also a specialist lawyer too. Sadly I am neither of those things, though I am available to open garden parties / charity shops, name ships and such.
I'm sure you will have looked on the web, but:-
Maybe something in one of those two? |
Oh. Goodness me! It looks like we are going to finish at the opening price again.... |
Not OXB RELATED….
Hello, just struggling with a university question, any help would be much appreciated!
Where a large corporation has offered to buy all the shares of another company (x). 2/3 directors of x are for the sale, 1 is not. What mechanisms are available to protect his rights as a minority shareholder. (It does only specify these 3 no more shareholders!) |
One would think the market was still closed given the volume traded this morning !
Happy New Year to all of the good guys who contribute so much to this thread .
A very fruitful year ahead for OXB shareholders on the horizon .
Tuco. |
Gone but not forgotten Gareth. |
The Chinese New Year begins on 29th January, the year of the wood snake. A time of transformation, growth and introspection. Happy New Year to all Chinese and other nationalities Worldwide. |
Admittedly I have the gift of being able to curse things with a sweeping statement, but this should be the last of our odd volume / trade silly season days before normal service is returned on Thursday.
Presumably (speculative bid theories aside) we are now overdue something which could be expected from OXB by way of their unofficial quarterly reporting. They've only ever said that they won't announce individual deals any more unless the partner wants to (or OXB have to because of market rules), and that they will instead roll it all up into "regular" reporting of their "CDMO industry norm" KPI table.
Well, it's been nothing for a good while now (except for Frank's party piece on LinkedIn) and the start of the new year seems a good time to me.
Out with the old - "we closed 2024 in line with previous guidance" and
In with the new - "2025 will be in the range x to x and not lossmaking"
Something like that would help us tremendously with regard to market sentiment / visibility, but if they continue to run silently with the price each day closing (held?) remarkably close to the opening, then I think even the sceptics will begin to suspect that there might be a reason behind both.
Meanwhile (cue Jaws music please) 25th Nov £250m on a fish genetics plant, same day spending in a $135 million series B financing in Adcendo, a biotech company, Dec 4th participation in a €80 million Series A financing round for Antag Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company, Dec 18th led a $100 million Series C financing in SiteOne Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company.
To paraphrase what the florist says to Dudley Moore in the Arthur movie, "Where were they when I was selling cars?". Classic movie misquotes aside, that's some spending spree from petty cash. |
posting primarily to get notifications, but following Brucie here from ONT.
Thanks to all past posters for info provided etc. |
How strange. Down heavily at 14:00, then straight up again, after which the 'up guy' gets bored and lets it be dropped to the 420's where it finishes. |
You know my thoughts Jasie and that I've been angling for OXB's return to the FTSE250 all year.
The next year we enter a week tomorrow is guided at C£180m and a profit which is not a small cap stock (it should be c£1bn mkt cap), but I don't think we will get to the first reshuffle / review date of the year (end of Feb) before our major shareholders get asked what they would be prepared to take. Let's all hope that they won't take cheap.
The longer it can go on before that scenario is obviously in our favour as the OXB story just gets better and therefore more expensive, but my best fit theory remains that Novo Holdings' plan to make a success of their new "largest cell therapy transaction ever" CDMO company, involves at least in some part everything OXB being rolled out into every suitable Catalent facility.
If I'm wrong then worst case this time next year we will all be sat here holding a FTSE250 stock and talking about £250m+ revenue in 2026 - which as worst case scenarios go, isn't really a bad one is it?
Were this one of our old seasonal sweeps though, my virtual pound would go on Novo's need to make their multibillion pound CDMO play a success being the trump card here. |
I haven't posted much on here this year possibly born out of frustration at the stubborn progress. For the vast majority of the very long time i have held this stock it has been like wading through treacle with the odd stellar spell when the sensible would have 'banked' I'm still frustrated by the lack of news and information but I decided long ago to see this through to the end. I doubt we will see £15 again but you never know!!
Merry Christmas All, lets see what 2025 brings! ( It had better not finish on £4.30 Though !!) |
Compliments of the season to all here.
2025 could be the year… |
Clearly being manipulated by people in the know. Mutters of that doesn't go on in the squeeky clean LSE. Oh yes it does! |
Isn't it remarkable how the share price seems to start and end pretty much the same whether it goes up or down during the day? |
Happy Christmas all.
There are some great contributors on here.... thank you.
The share price games must stop sometime & look forward to the value here been realised in 2025. |
Time to wind down for festive season, enjoy, hopefully the New Year will bring an end to this large (ish) volume, small trade pattern. The futures bright the futures OXB? Tempus revelat omni. |
Also, it's a trial drug, not one of the 3 driving their billions of revenue. Over the top reporting is all. |
takeiteasy,
I haven't seen the story on the BB, but a lesson there of being built up to the most valuable listed company in Europe by the markets and then knocked back down again.
You would think that they had killed trial patients or something similar, yet it was simply achieving just short of their own target and the boss thinks that full data on the high dose only will be better. Result, billions wiped away.
Regarding the possible effect for us though, remember it's Novo Holdings the investment company who are the big spending fund. Novo Nordisk is the closely related drug company which they own the controlling stake in. |
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/12/20/novo-nordisk-faces-stock-market-bloodbath-weight-loss-drug-trial-disappoints/been out all day so if already posted pls ignore |
Its strange. I have been having conversations on these boards for more than twenty years. In that time we have had an information revolution, technology has pushed through barriers that would have seen impenetrable a few years ago, and in depth knowledge of any subject is just a few clicks away. Yet nobody has been able to show irrefutably why share prices move the way they do. |
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