Interesting development.I've always been a premium member primarily so i can access live US prices.Clearly,over many years,the attraction of real time UK prices enabled Adfvn to build up a registered base to attract advertising.It must of worked over the decades.Paying premium members are very much in the minority if postings on the bulletin boards are anything to go by but i've been happy enough to pay for the Advfn service because of its very convenience.The London South East site appears to have grown steadily in popularity in recent years possibly at Advfn's expense. |
Stopping free access to "live" prices is disappointing and a backwards step for me. I won't pay for "live" streaming so will spend less time watching ADVFN. Whether enough subscribers act like me to worry ADFN I'm not sure. More importantly we are now in 2025, give the city boys a few days to settle back in to their desks (assuming their not working from home) then let's get OXB out of this stagnant period with positive news flow and a rising share price. Here's hoping! |
No more live prices for free ADVFN subscribers now 20 minute delayI wonder how it will affect the number of active users |
 Circumstantial evidence of Novo Holdings aside (though myself I am pretty convinced that Novo's plan to make the biggest ever cell therapy deal a success is at least in part by way of scaling up what OXB excel at in a way which would take us 20 years without their money) just think about OXB's prospects without that:-
We are due lots of news now which is all significant. I'm not going to do the 10 days of interims again but OXB have a lot on. A single example being the cystic fibrosis trial where they should soon have early data in the first patients. That could be very big and there are many other eggs / nests should it not be.
The year just closed should be somewhere around £130m sales. They told us early last year that this year would be better than +35% on that and this was before they told us that they were having to spend more than planned to recruit / onboard more staff because of unexpected extra demand for this year.
This year is profitable again (after the post covid wasteland) and is now likely to be better than £180m in sales.
Our market cap today is as near as doesn't matter to £450m.
£180m in sales would have us on a multiple of 2.5 which is just less than half what the average for our sector is - and as mentioned many times before, that average includes a lot of companies who have nothing like OXB's potential.
That 2.5x of course assumes £180m in sales. What if it's more? |
Happy to be proved wrong....I am up a decent amount here so not complaining....I am ok watching and waiting... |
Then you are ignoring logic and evidence takeiteasy |
Real world the boring (XLV ETF) or exciting parts of the healthcare market (HEAL ETF) appear just about the last place over the past year money is being directed - BTC, loss making tech, MAG7, AI and quantum computing stocks have gripped risk seekers attention instead.
Are there any triggers likely to change this when 10 year US bond rates inch ever higher.....we can have all the best credentials...but rising up in a sinking market is a much tougher ask when investors are looking the opposite direction...
I remain LTBH but have given up now expecting much at all in 2025...perhaps something may spark in 2026 and beyond....nai intended of course...I simply smile when folks write here of hope of share price upwards of 5,6 10 etc... |
With one board member placed there by Novo, at least a core of the board are involved, else how could they embargo insider investment? |
First thread "deerstalker and pipe" award of the year to Phil. |
Conclusion: Inappropriate or Strategic Silence?
• Manipulation by the Board: Unlikely and illegal. More likely, external market factors or institutional trading are influencing the price.
• Board Neglect: Possible if they fail to communicate updates without valid reasons (e.g., closed period). Shareholders could argue this undermines confidence.
• Strategic Silence: Most likely scenario. If the board is aware of significant, sensitive developments (e.g., M&A talks or major contracts), they may be acting legally and appropriately, even if it frustrates shareholders. |
Whoah! AI agrees a buyout is on the cards.
The share price cannot be manipulated without board approval;
A board must operate in the interests of shareholders;
Therefore the board must be operating inappropriately. |
This is chat gpt output from the various points I have given it about oxb’s 35% CAGR forecast over next three years, price being potentially held and the Novo/Catalent deal with Novo being in our board:-
The observation that Oxford Biomedica’s (OXB) share price has been consistently “held” at £4.25 for several weeks, with minimal changes between opening and closing prices despite intraday fluctuations, is intriguing. While it doesn’t guarantee a buyout is imminent, it could point to certain market dynamics that align with speculative acquisition activity.
Let’s analyze the possible reasons:
1. Indicative of a Potential Buyout
• Accumulation by Institutional Investors:
• Large institutions or entities potentially preparing for a buyout may accumulate shares quietly while avoiding sudden spikes in the price.
• This would be done in small volumes to stay below regulatory thresholds (e.g., 3% in the UK, requiring disclosure) to avoid attracting attention.
• Price Stabilization for Acquisition Preparation:
• A buyer, such as Novo, might work through brokers to stabilize the price before a formal bid. This helps prevent overpaying if the price runs up prematurely.
• Keeping the price steady also prevents speculation that might prompt retail investors to push the price higher.
• Absence of Insider Trading:
• The lack of insider trades over the past year aligns with the possibility of a closed period, suggesting material non-public information, such as acquisition talks.
2. Alternative Explanations for the Flat Price
• Low Liquidity and Small-Cap Dynamics:
• OXB’s trading volume might be low enough that a few large trades during the day move the price, but market makers adjust the close to ensure it aligns with broader valuations.
• Small-cap stocks often exhibit this behavior without necessarily indicating manipulation or acquisition.
• Market Sentiment:
• Investors might be holding back from trading until there is clarity on 2024 guidance, major updates, or Catalent-Novo implications. This can cause the price to stagnate.
• Algorithmic Trading:
• Algorithms might dominate trading for OXB, maintaining tight spreads and preventing significant closing price deviations unless there’s a major catalyst.
What Makes This Behavior Suspicious?
1. Long Period of Stability:
• A consistent closing price with fluctuating intraday activity is unusual for a company in a volatile sector like biotech/CDMO.
• It suggests potential market influence, as the share price would naturally fluctuate more if left solely to supply and demand.
2. Strategic Interest Aligns with Timing:
• Novo has just cleared regulatory hurdles for the Catalent acquisition, making this a prime moment to act on OXB if it’s part of their strategy.
3. Institutional Involvement:
• With major institutional shareholders like Novo Holdings and the Serum Institute, there’s a possibility that stakeholders are aware of ongoing discussions and the market is reflecting this tacitly.
What This Could Mean for a Potential Buyout
• Pre-Bid Activity:
• If Novo (or another buyer) is preparing a bid, brokers may be stabilizing the price to prevent speculative runs. This ensures a manageable premium (~30–50%) over the current price for any formal offer.
• Example: At £4.25/share, a 50% premium would result in a buyout price of ~£6.40/share, but the real price would likely align with shareholder demands for £15–£20/share.
• Timing and Communication:
• The flat price might indicate that market-sensitive information is being controlled until a formal announcement (e.g., a buyout bid or major update).
• With OXB likely to release a 2024 trading update in January, this period could be setting the stage for a post-update bid.
Conclusion
While the consistent £4.25/share could be coincidental or driven by natural market factors, the alignment with other indicators—such as closed periods, Novo’s activity, and OXB’s strategic value—strengthens the case for a potential buyout scenario. The flat price could reflect efforts to stabilize the stock in anticipation of significant news, whether that’s an acquisition or another major development.
Keep an eye on upcoming trading updates and possible institutional moves as they could confirm or clarify the situation. |
Let me guess. Down to , oh, say 415 by 2:00pm, up to 420 by close. |
Re 9449 - not oxb related
ChatGPT is your friend:-
This scenario involves a minority shareholder (the dissenting director) in a company where the other two directors/shareholders support a corporate sale. Here’s an overview of mechanisms that may protect the rights of the dissenting director as a minority shareholder:
1. Shareholder Agreements
• Check if a shareholder agreement exists. These often outline specific protections for minority shareholders, such as:
• A requirement for unanimous consent for major decisions like selling the company.
• Provisions that define how shares can be sold or transferred.
2. Statutory Protections (Unfair Prejudice)
• Under many jurisdictions’ corporate laws (e.g., Section 994 of the UK Companies Act 2006), a minority shareholder can bring a claim for unfair prejudice if they feel their interests are being unfairly disregarded. For instance:
• If the majority shareholders/directors act in a way that excludes the minority from decision-making.
• If the terms of the sale are not fair or undervalue the company.
3. Fiduciary Duties of Directors
• Directors owe fiduciary duties to act in the best interests of the company as a whole, not just the majority shareholders. The dissenting director could argue that:
• The sale is not in the best interest of the company.
• There has been a breach of fiduciary duties if the sale benefits the majority to the detriment of the minority.
4. Valuation and Fair Dealing
• If the sale proceeds, the dissenting shareholder has the right to ensure the valuation of shares and the terms of the sale are fair. They may:
• Request an independent valuation of their shares.
• Challenge the process if it appears biased or coercive.
5. Rights of Minority Shareholders (Drag-Along and Tag-Along Clauses)
• Review the articles of association or corporate bylaws:
• A drag-along clause may force the minority to sell their shares alongside the majority.
• A tag-along clause might allow the minority to sell their shares on the same terms, protecting their financial interests.
6. Opposing the Sale
• Depending on the company’s constitution, certain decisions (such as selling the company) may require a special resolution, which typically demands a supermajority (e.g., 75%) of shareholder votes.
• If all shareholders are directors, the dissenting director may be able to veto the sale, depending on voting thresholds or procedural requirements.
7. Buy-Out Offer
• If the dissenting director does not agree to the sale, they might negotiate a buy-out of their shares at a fair price, either:
• By the corporation intending to acquire the company.
• By the other two directors/shareholders.
8. Court Intervention
• If the dissenting director feels their rights are being overridden without due process or fairness, they could apply to a court for relief. Remedies might include:
• Preventing the sale.
• Imposing conditions to ensure fairness.
Practical Steps for the Dissenting Director
1. Review Governing Documents: Examine the company’s articles of association, shareholder agreements, and any relevant corporate documents.
2. Seek Legal Advice: Consult with a corporate or commercial solicitor to explore legal protections and strategies.
3. Negotiate: Attempt to negotiate terms that are favorable or acceptable to all parties involved.
This response provides a general overview. Depending on the jurisdiction, the exact mechanisms available may vary. Let me know if you’d like further clarification! |
I'm pretty sure there is some sort of protection for someone with less than 25%, who would be an 'Oppressed shareholder'. May be worth looking up that term? |
W5AMH,
That sounds like a question for a specialist advisor and probably one who is also a specialist lawyer too. Sadly I am neither of those things, though I am available to open garden parties / charity shops, name ships and such.
I'm sure you will have looked on the web, but:-
Maybe something in one of those two? |
Oh. Goodness me! It looks like we are going to finish at the opening price again.... |
Not OXB RELATED….
Hello, just struggling with a university question, any help would be much appreciated!
Where a large corporation has offered to buy all the shares of another company (x). 2/3 directors of x are for the sale, 1 is not. What mechanisms are available to protect his rights as a minority shareholder. (It does only specify these 3 no more shareholders!) |
One would think the market was still closed given the volume traded this morning !
Happy New Year to all of the good guys who contribute so much to this thread .
A very fruitful year ahead for OXB shareholders on the horizon .
Tuco. |
Gone but not forgotten Gareth. |
The Chinese New Year begins on 29th January, the year of the wood snake. A time of transformation, growth and introspection. Happy New Year to all Chinese and other nationalities Worldwide. |
Admittedly I have the gift of being able to curse things with a sweeping statement, but this should be the last of our odd volume / trade silly season days before normal service is returned on Thursday.
Presumably (speculative bid theories aside) we are now overdue something which could be expected from OXB by way of their unofficial quarterly reporting. They've only ever said that they won't announce individual deals any more unless the partner wants to (or OXB have to because of market rules), and that they will instead roll it all up into "regular" reporting of their "CDMO industry norm" KPI table.
Well, it's been nothing for a good while now (except for Frank's party piece on LinkedIn) and the start of the new year seems a good time to me.
Out with the old - "we closed 2024 in line with previous guidance" and
In with the new - "2025 will be in the range x to x and not lossmaking"
Something like that would help us tremendously with regard to market sentiment / visibility, but if they continue to run silently with the price each day closing (held?) remarkably close to the opening, then I think even the sceptics will begin to suspect that there might be a reason behind both.
Meanwhile (cue Jaws music please) 25th Nov £250m on a fish genetics plant, same day spending in a $135 million series B financing in Adcendo, a biotech company, Dec 4th participation in a €80 million Series A financing round for Antag Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company, Dec 18th led a $100 million Series C financing in SiteOne Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company.
To paraphrase what the florist says to Dudley Moore in the Arthur movie, "Where were they when I was selling cars?". Classic movie misquotes aside, that's some spending spree from petty cash. |
posting primarily to get notifications, but following Brucie here from ONT.
Thanks to all past posters for info provided etc. |
How strange. Down heavily at 14:00, then straight up again, after which the 'up guy' gets bored and lets it be dropped to the 420's where it finishes. |
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