 Red,
I agree with you about the feelgood side of this, particularly with j-ALL (our original Novartis lead indication) and CF, which both overwhelmingly affect kids.
However, and I realise I'm risking smallcrow holding a rally about this view, your last point there goes hand in hand with the discoveries. If you look at the managed economies then everything is done by committee and although they have very occasionally dropped on something good, mostly the only people who gain are those who sit on the committees and their families.
In the market economies then entrepreneurs see a market opportunity and take a risk which is usually funded by people like us who take part in the funding rounds in hopes of a good return. That system provides many companies chasing the same targets and although most fail it is a system which has delivered us almost everything we take for granted.
In my humble view it's far superior to the state approved hairstyles and the same suits all made in state factories. Unfortunately though there are an increasing number of youngsters around these days who are keen to give that system another try. |
Excellent news commercially: and also, let's all pause and consider, for the people and families who are being given new life because of these technical achievements. There is so much potential for gene therapies emerging now, across a huge range of previously unaddressable conditions, after many years of hard work and vast levels of investment. The next decade will see extraordinary benefits to health. (And, selfishly, to wealth!) |
Just a quick one for this morning:-
We're all familiar with the 20th March RNS
"Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in OxBox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.".
As was noted at the time there were only 2 newly approved CAR-T drugs for multiple myeloma with only one of those being "new" to OXB (i.e. not BMS) so the overwhelming probability being the RNS referred to J&J.
J&J news out last night
To get on the trials a patient needs to have been failed by all previous treatments and therefore by default is in a very poorly state. 90% of those evaluable (i.e. stayed in the trial) having undetectable disease this long post-treatment with that statistical power number is an astonishing result.
Almost certainly now it will be rolled out in earlier stage patients who are pre-tested as likely to be refractory to standard treatment and will also by default be much less poorly when they get this (currently last resort) treatment.
MM is one of the more common soft cancers and J&J will sell a lot of this. QED the people who make the programming vector will need to make a lot of that too. |
It will definitely finish at 4.30, LSE rules. |
Got it in one DC :) |
Up this morning (as usual) drop due in an hour or so. Up again this afternoon. Likely finish at ... err... £4.30? |
"stagnated share price this year" - I think looking over the course of the year we are up c.106%, so we have plenty of gains from investors arguably still being sold through holding up more recent progress - but chart still looks strong imvho |
Looks like the story is playing out here - well done to Harry and the gang! I've decided to come back in for a few, to see this, hopefully, to its joyful conclusion. What a way from early in the year when it could be picked up for under £2! |
The 1 share trade periods are littered throughout the stocks recent history, they should be put to one side, they have no relevance. I am interested in the lack of conversation concerning the BR acquisitions in OXB over the course of 2024. In my humble opinion this is hugely significant, and is almost certainly the reason for the stagnated share price this year.
IF BR unshackle OXB's chains sometime next year, then the news will begin to flow and the price will rise accordingly. IF!!!! |
SJ, here is my understanding in jest of how the code works in terms of messaging to fellow market traders:
sell 4 shares - "Can I borrow more stock to sell running low on OXB shares"
sell 3 shares - "Sorry mate we are running low on stock to sell at this price point too"
sell 2 shares = " That's me done then if I cannot borrow stock - all out"
sell 1 share - "We are all out too"
Let's see if my guess was right :) |
I'm more inclined to think those small,1 share,2 share trades etc are some sort of esoteric code between marketmakers but that might be trying to offer an explanation for the inexplicable. |
Not one to grumble but another trade of 1 share just now..we had a load of these trades this week of 1,2,3 or 4 shares - someone trading here must be very bored and prefer this to the crossword puzzles :) |
Not sure what 9374 has to do with anything marwalker |
Which spoke is that ?Directors can't buy for the last six months or more because of a big secret deal or too close to Christmas etc etc |
Adds another spoke to Mr. President's wheel... |
It does feel very like that scenario. |
Yes there appears a cap on the spYou could say that an entity is selling into any strengthAlternatively a cap on the share price would also serve a potential suitor to make their offer more attractiveI remember an ad on US financial channel a bank offering to act on your behalf and keep your strategy under wrapsPays your money etc |
They knocked it down under 4.30 again then. |
Finally, I found a " link" between OXB and SCLP.For the few of us that have both.Not sure what Alexander likes, but... HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/wgpartnersllp_wg-partners-are-pleased-to-have-acted-as-activity-7272206644132941824-Ac2z?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
Sheer efforts being expended for weeks now with loading the order book with small sales at and around 4.31 to keep the price locked below 4.30 is quite astonishing imvho - do these traders not have better things to waste their time on like looking for their Christmas presents :) |
Time will tell - both with the takeover hypothesis and the price, but I'm inclined to the idea of the former mainly because the boss of Novo Holdings had previously indicated a plan to buy up companies like OXB.
Re the share price, then there's no point arguing what the market thinks it is worth at the moment. Myself though, I think a much more important figure is what the majority of our major shareholders think OXB is worth.
The market is simply looking at sales and profits, but some of OXB's IP and knowhow is incredibly valuable and not in the price.
At the moment the market price isn't representative (for various reasons we talk about a lot) but if the Novartis work alone is worth £25m per year to us (and I think it is about that) then just that should be worth about £1.30 / £1.40 per share - and wasn't it Novartis + 36 more customers we had at the last count? OK the others are not as large, but even so?
I also think you have to be careful about the price of the shares which OXB were willing to place for IM as IM had previously sold us something quite valuable for a very low valuation and accepted full payment in shares at twice the market price. So that final placing was a fair deal for them and hasn't been offered to anyone else.
I've listed the shareholdings before, but the top 3 own 30% and the top 13 something like 70%. A lot of them have held for a very long time and they know what OXB is worth. Unless they are distressed then how would an opportunistic bid work? |
Well you might be right but who would of thought back in the heady days when the price was mid teens that Institut-Merieux would buy a stake at prices well south of a fiver.Whether one likes it not,any potential bidder will lend some credence to how OXB has been valued by the market hence you get the well worn comment 'the offer represents a premium to the average share price etc of x per cent'.Anyway,que sera sera,its speculation as to whether a bid will emerge at all. |
I really can’t see £7-9 being anything close to a successful bid. |
For information, I sold 200 shares at 13:47pm shown as a buy, trade number 132. In the first 10 minutes after 14:30pm another 50 trades conducted. Not hugh trades but US interest? |
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