SMALL CAP
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JPMorgan raises Oxford BioMedica price target to 490 (450) pence - 'neutral' |
been a very tough year for the health sector 2024 YTD vs S&P 500 - so we are swimming well against the tide as they say...keeps expectations realistic for me I guess... |
A day of completely piddling trades. |
Is it quite unusual, or surprising, that the track of the share price each day is so similar. Up first thing, then promptly down significantly, fairly flat during the afternoon, then up at end of day. |
Where on earth do you get your information from luminaire? At worst he has made an amusing aside referencing Trump.
On the other hand I prefer Trump and his cohort of (relatively) amature appointees to the failed bunch that have previously enjoyed the power in the USA. So far, he has not used the Law as an instrument to attack his enemies, started a war, or imprisoned his political enemies. Although he has criticised big pharma (or rather his allies have) but can you say without crossing your fingers that they always behave well? |
Up there with your previous post that OXB is going down and that I personally should take some responsibility for it. Not aged well with next year being record sales and a profit.
I'm all for release into the community but I don't think you should be given internet access. |
Not long now and Harry's mate becomes the most powerful man in the world appointing science denying conspiracy theorists who want to decimate the pharma industry. |
I'm all for it and good luck to them Phil. We know these first 3 weeks of December are almost always a very slow time of year, so anything to cheer up the festivities is more than welcome. My one humbug point would be the obvious one that if this initiative had come from the board then it would be on the main website and not LinkedIn, but someone is giving it a go and well done to them. Every little helps - as one of the supermarkets used to say.
My focus this week is what the EU regulator says about the Novo purchase of Catalent, with the deadline being Friday. If that does get rubber stamped then that just leaves the FTC and if they also say yes (two big ifs there I know) then I continue to have this feeling that Novo's plan for the C> arm of Catalent also involves OXB. |
Harry, I think they’ve nicked your idea!!
𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 "𝟭𝟮 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗫𝗕"!
This festive season, we’re celebrating OXB’s incredible achievements, milestones, and innovations with a nod to the classic “12 Days of Christmas” song, thought to have roots in both English and French traditions—a fitting reflection of our global presence, which includes two sites in France!
LinkedIn
Running from December 1st to December 12th, we’ll share a daily post revealing a key milestone or fact about OXB. From ground-breaking scientific advancements to state-of-the-art manufacturing, we’re excited to highlight how we’re driving the cell and gene therapy field forward. |
Oxford Biomedica (OXB:LN) (OXBDF) Price Target Raised to GBP5 at Stifel
November 30, 2024 1:40 AM EST
Stifel analyst James Orsborne raised (you have to pay for the rest). |
 takeiteasy,
Honest opinion, I would have thought not. There *may* be an unintended effect here of OXB being held in an effective closed period because of something which our major shareholder *might possibly* be currently doing, but pick your own odds on that.
There could easily be other explanations of why not a single OXB insider has bought shares since Novo bid for Catalent. Personally, I think there is something going on, but I'm guessing based around what little is in the public domain.
Re OXB's 3 year trial by ordeal, then I would say where we are today is much more likely to be a pick and mix of this:-
1) Covid gave and it took away. OXB was saved by being one of the 11 bulk suppliers of the Oxford University vaccine for AZ. That brought us enough money to ride this out.
2) Covid put everything non-essential on hold - so all our previous work went away with all our public partners put on hold, with the exception of Novartis which was an approved drug and so essential work. Maybe you remember the stat, but c87% of our bioprocessing work was for AZ.
3) When that stopped abruptly for political reasons the market reacted accordingly as we lost that work whilst our previous work was still on hold in an industry battered by pandemic emergency measures.
4) Whilst limping out of this with (very fortunately) the vaccine manufacturing cash windfall, OXB took the best advice available which was that post pandemic they couldn't just rely on being "the LentiVector company" and needed a foot in the bigger market of AAV.
5) That was addressed by buying the AAV rights and manufacturing facilities from Homology medicines in a deal which would cost us over 180m USD, but was sweetened a lot by the continuing work in supporting Homology's pipeline. Homology then went out of business and that work was lost. We still have to pay them the final 10% in about 4 months, but fortunately it is now very little.
6) So, our pre-pandemic regular work (which was mostly LV) is finally back now and the Homology situation has been turned around with new AAV customers and the US plant being expanded into a LV hub, but that has been 3 years of walking through treacle whilst carrying an elephant and the markets don't like that.
7) It took us c20 years to break into the midcap (FT250) index, with the better visibility / coverage that brings. It took us only a couple of years to get booted out again, mainly thanks to meddling politicians and the covid fiasco explained above.
8) This is why my sole hope / target / goal for this year (it's in a January post if you want to check) was to get back into the FT250, because in small cap very few people (other than PIs like us) look or follow. So all the big investors will remember us falling away after covid, but won't know anything else - unless they happen to listen to Frank at Jefferies or JPM out of the other 40 presentations that day.
9) Happily money does talk and companies sell on forward earnings. We know that the mid guidance for the year we are 11 months into is £130m and that next year will be more than 35% better. If it's c£180m then that's our record revenue year by close to £40m and OXB say they will return to profit. Two big things there and a CDMO which turns over £180m and makes a profit is not a small cap stock - so that should resolve itself this year if nothing else overtakes us first. |
Re: 9295 - is the only thing holding this up in the absence of news the Novo link. Chart at the top of the page shows where we are now was a support tested multiple times during 2023 so a resistance to us now to try to break through - some major reaction if we can get above 4.50 I suspect if folks follow momentum technicals...
Clutching straws probably :) |
Jez,
The first 2 there are RNS (hence the dates). The interims and Jefferies you can find via RNS.
I accept that they haven't announced everything. Whether that is related to the fact that none of them have bought shares this year or not I don't know.
They have hinted at malaria in replies to questions (re number of people in that chain). Sooner or later they will tell us who the second CAR-T commercial deal is for as that is quite important, but the timing will be down to the customer else OXB would already have released it. You know my current pet theory as to why they are quiet and not buying shares already. Could also be something completely different. |
It all sounds wonderfull H, but we haven't seen a single positive RNS this year, so surely it is all still hearsay, We need more clarification going forward, in black and white. |
5th March. Three-year revenue CAGR increased to more than 35%, up from prior guidance of more than 30%
20th March Consistently strong demand for its CDMO services across all key viral vector types. Second commercial CAR-T vector manufacture and supply deal. Tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture deal for AAV in cardiac gene therapy.
At the Interims then Jefferies - now 4 late stage programmes, suites booked up, profit next year.
If nothing else happens between now and Big Ben we have had significantly worse years. |
Well it looks likely now that the whole of 2024 is going to be devoid of any positive news. Next stop the full year results, early next year. Here's hoping. AGAIN |
Limit buy orders at 4.30 still to be filled?....not sure really but as a LTBH for years ahead I hope it is not the worst thing if fairly temporary ... |
Why would (presumably) a broker do that? |
Someone has constructed the immovable object of the Thames Flood Barrier at 4.30...taking some waves to break down the resistance to further progress :) |
A flurry of small automated trades this morning. |
Smoke and mirrors its everywhere. |
takeiteasy,
It's interesting the way people look at risks both long term and short.
Our water is treated with chlorine and in lots of the country (assuming your house has some age) the final distribution is still through lead pipes. Have you seen any protests? Also bottled water in supermarkets often is just that (tap water bottled) and those plastic bottles do leech tiny amounts of chemicals over time.
Personally I'd be a lot less concerned about that washed chicken than I would be about the amount of our food which now comes from China on trust - the land of fake everything (including accompanying paperwork). Rich Chinese still pay extra to import stuff rather than spinning the wheel with anything which might be counterfeit.
Years ago I met a guy who had been the "independent expert" brought in at a public meeting about some electricity pylons and the perceived risk of leukaemia from them, which at the time was neck and neck with the theory that leaky microwave ovens caused cataracts.
As I say, we're going back quite a while here but he recalled that the hall where the public meeting was held was "foggy" because back then you were still free to smoke in most places and a good number of the worried public were. Think about that one and it's mad really isn't it? Smoking possibly the worst legal thing that you can do to your body but they were worried about a health risk from overhead wires which are pretty essential for the standard of living / quality of life we all expect. |
The fact they use chlorinated chicken puts me off before you even get to the cooking oil part.... |
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