 takeiteasy,
Honest opinion, I would have thought not. There *may* be an unintended effect here of OXB being held in an effective closed period because of something which our major shareholder *might possibly* be currently doing, but pick your own odds on that.
There could easily be other explanations of why not a single OXB insider has bought shares since Novo bid for Catalent. Personally, I think there is something going on, but I'm guessing based around what little is in the public domain.
Re OXB's 3 year trial by ordeal, then I would say where we are today is much more likely to be a pick and mix of this:-
1) Covid gave and it took away. OXB was saved by being one of the 11 bulk suppliers of the Oxford University vaccine for AZ. That brought us enough money to ride this out.
2) Covid put everything non-essential on hold - so all our previous work went away with all our public partners put on hold, with the exception of Novartis which was an approved drug and so essential work. Maybe you remember the stat, but c87% of our bioprocessing work was for AZ.
3) When that stopped abruptly for political reasons the market reacted accordingly as we lost that work whilst our previous work was still on hold in an industry battered by pandemic emergency measures.
4) Whilst limping out of this with (very fortunately) the vaccine manufacturing cash windfall, OXB took the best advice available which was that post pandemic they couldn't just rely on being "the LentiVector company" and needed a foot in the bigger market of AAV.
5) That was addressed by buying the AAV rights and manufacturing facilities from Homology medicines in a deal which would cost us over 180m USD, but was sweetened a lot by the continuing work in supporting Homology's pipeline. Homology then went out of business and that work was lost. We still have to pay them the final 10% in about 4 months, but fortunately it is now very little.
6) So, our pre-pandemic regular work (which was mostly LV) is finally back now and the Homology situation has been turned around with new AAV customers and the US plant being expanded into a LV hub, but that has been 3 years of walking through treacle whilst carrying an elephant and the markets don't like that.
7) It took us c20 years to break into the midcap (FT250) index, with the better visibility / coverage that brings. It took us only a couple of years to get booted out again, mainly thanks to meddling politicians and the covid fiasco explained above.
8) This is why my sole hope / target / goal for this year (it's in a January post if you want to check) was to get back into the FT250, because in small cap very few people (other than PIs like us) look or follow. So all the big investors will remember us falling away after covid, but won't know anything else - unless they happen to listen to Frank at Jefferies or JPM out of the other 40 presentations that day.
9) Happily money does talk and companies sell on forward earnings. We know that the mid guidance for the year we are 11 months into is £130m and that next year will be more than 35% better. If it's c£180m then that's our record revenue year by close to £40m and OXB say they will return to profit. Two big things there and a CDMO which turns over £180m and makes a profit is not a small cap stock - so that should resolve itself this year if nothing else overtakes us first. |
Re: 9295 - is the only thing holding this up in the absence of news the Novo link. Chart at the top of the page shows where we are now was a support tested multiple times during 2023 so a resistance to us now to try to break through - some major reaction if we can get above 4.50 I suspect if folks follow momentum technicals...
Clutching straws probably :) |
Jez,
The first 2 there are RNS (hence the dates). The interims and Jefferies you can find via RNS.
I accept that they haven't announced everything. Whether that is related to the fact that none of them have bought shares this year or not I don't know.
They have hinted at malaria in replies to questions (re number of people in that chain). Sooner or later they will tell us who the second CAR-T commercial deal is for as that is quite important, but the timing will be down to the customer else OXB would already have released it. You know my current pet theory as to why they are quiet and not buying shares already. Could also be something completely different. |
It all sounds wonderfull H, but we haven't seen a single positive RNS this year, so surely it is all still hearsay, We need more clarification going forward, in black and white. |
5th March. Three-year revenue CAGR increased to more than 35%, up from prior guidance of more than 30%
20th March Consistently strong demand for its CDMO services across all key viral vector types. Second commercial CAR-T vector manufacture and supply deal. Tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture deal for AAV in cardiac gene therapy.
At the Interims then Jefferies - now 4 late stage programmes, suites booked up, profit next year.
If nothing else happens between now and Big Ben we have had significantly worse years. |
Well it looks likely now that the whole of 2024 is going to be devoid of any positive news. Next stop the full year results, early next year. Here's hoping. AGAIN |
Limit buy orders at 4.30 still to be filled?....not sure really but as a LTBH for years ahead I hope it is not the worst thing if fairly temporary ... |
Why would (presumably) a broker do that? |
Someone has constructed the immovable object of the Thames Flood Barrier at 4.30...taking some waves to break down the resistance to further progress :) |
A flurry of small automated trades this morning. |
Smoke and mirrors its everywhere. |
takeiteasy,
It's interesting the way people look at risks both long term and short.
Our water is treated with chlorine and in lots of the country (assuming your house has some age) the final distribution is still through lead pipes. Have you seen any protests? Also bottled water in supermarkets often is just that (tap water bottled) and those plastic bottles do leech tiny amounts of chemicals over time.
Personally I'd be a lot less concerned about that washed chicken than I would be about the amount of our food which now comes from China on trust - the land of fake everything (including accompanying paperwork). Rich Chinese still pay extra to import stuff rather than spinning the wheel with anything which might be counterfeit.
Years ago I met a guy who had been the "independent expert" brought in at a public meeting about some electricity pylons and the perceived risk of leukaemia from them, which at the time was neck and neck with the theory that leaky microwave ovens caused cataracts.
As I say, we're going back quite a while here but he recalled that the hall where the public meeting was held was "foggy" because back then you were still free to smoke in most places and a good number of the worried public were. Think about that one and it's mad really isn't it? Smoking possibly the worst legal thing that you can do to your body but they were worried about a health risk from overhead wires which are pretty essential for the standard of living / quality of life we all expect. |
The fact they use chlorinated chicken puts me off before you even get to the cooking oil part.... |
Spare a thought for the turkeys at this time of year. You haven't heard from your cousin in the US this week then you start hearing Wham's Last Christmas on the farmers tractor radio. Difficult time to be a turkey. |
Oops - missed your earlier ref to festivities Harry ! |
looks like this share has started the Christmas break early ...switch off now for the New Year? we would prefer otherwise of course :) |
RR Multiple Myeloma
#ASH24 Autologous GPRC5D CAR-T, BMS-986393
Efficacy:
- ORR: 96% (23/24); CRR: 46% (11/24).
- MRD Negativity: 100% (5/5 with CR or better).
- Ongoing Responses: 78% (18/23) at 5.9 months.
Safety:
- TRAEs: Any grade 97%, Grade 3/4 45%.
- CRS: 84% (all Grade 1/2, resolved).
- ICANS: 10% (all Grade 1/2, resolved).
- On-Target/Off-Tumor Toxicities: Nails 29%, Skin 23%, Oral 39% (all Grade 1/2). |
Meanwhile trades only trickling along. Gone home for Christmas? |
Not that far. I'm sure others do similar but I run a spreadsheet on what I own and my OXB spreadsheet has everything I've previously thought relevant about their partners.
A week tomorrow is the deadline for the EU to decide on Novo buying Catalent and it's expected to be rubberstamped. If so I think that's probably quite relevant for us at the moment and very possibly our most relevant near-team issue. I accept here that the unidentified commercial CAR-T deal is also looming, but I would imagine that is already in our guidance as it was disclosed as previously signed, so might not actually change anything for us significantly when announced in detail.
If the EU approves the Novo Catalent deal a week tomorrow then it's just the FTC to satisfy in the US. There are objections but Catalent is not in great shape at the moment and the Novo money saves them from a predicament which they will be back in if the FTC block Novo. I think the FTC will approve contingent upon some guarantees from Novo and Catalent shareholders have already said a 99% yes please.
Warren is trying to say that Novo will gain an unfair advantage by manufacturing for competitors, but we can argue that many others already do this - i.e. OXB did that when we still had our in-house pipeline. There has to be some trust and professionalism here. Novo also can't find work for 47 plants with their own products so need to keep existing business and grow it.
So if the FTC sees customers reassured, shareholders happy and the Catalent management explaining that this gets them out of a pickle, I think it's a yes from the FTC and at that point we may find out what Novo's plans are to make Catalent's cell and gene therapy division the best it can be. |
Blimey Harry, how deep down the rabbit warren did you go to dig those links out :) |
There are quite a few OXB partners with both seemingly excellent prospects and very battered (aka tempting) share prices. I realise some of this (well quite a bit of it) is down to the disastrous worldwide overreaction to covid, but there's also plainly the issue of too many similar companies chasing the same targets - and this is especially true in CAR-T.
I've mentioned before on here that for various reasons I'm really quite happy with OXB only selling the shovels these days, rather than actually digging for the gold. Out of our c40 partners at the moment, I would guess that a good half of them are working in the current vogue of CAR-T. This isn't a problem for OXB as we will sell our services to them all, but it's unrealistic to assume that all these companies (even if successful in trials) will make it to market and commercial success.
The upside for us is that we really don't need that many of them to do it. We have had one excellent and very lucrative result with Novartis. Another is pending. Something eventually around 5 of these long term commercial support contracts and OXB shareholders will be very pleased - especially when coupled with all our other non CAR-T prospects like CF. Not so great for the shareholders of the partners who don't make it though (which will be the majority because there are a huge number of bios chasing CAR-T, which of course has a finite number of targets & patients).
Non CAR-T I really quite like the look of GeoVax at the moment (another OXB partner and long time battered stock) for a bit of a punt, because those vaccines will be worth a lot of money if it all works out in any one area. Countering this though is my c30 year experience in bios and remembering that whilst they all had really exciting prospects, only a tiny number actually crossed the finishing line.
So, at the moment I'm very pleased with OXB as a service provider to that "whole" industry and (as you will have worked out) I'm also pretty convinced that one of our major shareholders is so sold on the same idea that I think they are about to make it a much bigger business. |
Maybe it has also been tipped somewhere as well,I know it is down 90% odd this year but still has cash in the bank till 2nd half of 2026 and an average analyst average price target of around $25 so buying at $3 today is at least giving traders something to talk about over the thanksgiving table. |
Good find Northstand, but Thanksgiving weekend in the US now, so I wouldn't expect much more info this week. That news reads to me like good progress, but essentially another step towards eventually running a registration trial. As those can take a long time then I'm not sure why it would be worth +25% now - unless of course they were simply oversold on doom and this corrected that. |
Caballeta shares were up 25% last night in after hours trading,am I right in thinking that Caba have a non-exclusive license to use LentiVector ia all 4 of their 'Caba-201' trials?...........
Caballeta Bio Shares Surge The Most In 23 Months In A Single Day As It Unveils Plan To Meet FDA By 2025 For Systemic Sclerosis Drug Trial
by
Rishabh Mishra
November 28, 2024 12:59 AM
'What Happened: The company anticipates meeting the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2025 to discuss potential registrational trial designs, as per a statement by DelveInsight Business Research.
The report highlighted that Caballeta showcased positive clinical safety and efficacy data presented at the American College of Rheumatology Convergence 2024. The Systemic Sclerosis drug trial is ongoing with 16 patients with 10 patients dosed as of Nov. 12, 2024.
Why It Matters: The shares rose over the $3 per share mark for the first time on Wednesday in the last two weeks since Nov. 15. Also, the shares rose the most over 24% in a single day for the first time in two years since Dec. 14, 2022.
Cabaletta Bio is dedicated to developing engineered T-cell therapies to offer lasting, potentially curative treatments for autoimmune diseases. Their CABA platform includes both chimeric antigen receptor T cells and their proprietary chimeric autoantibody receptor T cells, designed to target autoimmune conditions.'
'Oxford Biomedica initially licensed its LentiVector® platform to Cabaletta Bio for their lead product candidate, DSG3-CAART. The agreement has now been extended to grant a non-exclusive license to Cabaletta under Oxford Biomedica’s LentiVector® platform IP for their CAR-T programme, CABA-201, a 4-1BB-containing fully human CD19-CAR T cell investigational therapy. Cabaletta Bio has received two IND clearances to date for CABA-201 and plans to initiate a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis and a separate Phase 1/2 clinical trial for patients with myositis. |
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