 I think it's difficult to say anything about trades when one day we have c300k and the next day is 58k shares traded. It's feast and famine for no apparent reason which seems to have been on a rinse and repeat cycle for some time now.
Maybe today was some selling for the Christmas holidays and maybe it wasn't. Unfortunately the free link I had which marked bot trades as algos doesn't work anymore, so your guess is as good as mine.
I do know that once we get into next week the market often goes from slow to nearly dead. Yes things do happen during the first weeks of December, but not very often.
So a head and heart situation I think.
My head tells me that the closer we get to Christmas then people are focussing on other things and putting off / talking about plans for the new year.
My heart tells me that:-
OXB told us about expected FDA approvals in Q4 for some reason.
They have told us about winning a commercial CAR-T deal which we still await details of 8 months later.
Always possible that something long on the back burner - e.g. some / all of OXB's shelved in-house drug pipeline (including the star there in ProSavin Mk1 / Mk2) might find a new home in some way shape or form.
Finally of course the possibility that OXB will form part of Novo's plans for Catalent.
I know I've banged this drum a lot, but look at the insider buying in OXB and look what has been pretty normal every past year
Why has not a single one of them bought during 2024 when this is the last year before we return to profit next year? I strongly suspect it's because they can't - and that when we find out what it is that is keeping them in a closed period (surely only due diligence for that length of time?) then it might be a pretty interesting day. |
Lots of small trades today as people cash in. Patience is required, 2025 is the year when we see real gains (we hope). |
You're effectively saying the same thing icejelly. The investors that matter don't yet know what OXB is, and how to categorise it. |
I don't believe that OXB is held back by its past covid work involvement. More that it is held back by UK and world events and because the company has not proved its future direction. |
Dangerous words here Jez, but at the moment it's difficult to see where they can go badly wrong.
In biotech drug development, then the big risk is that a company will run out of money before any particular experimental drug comes good.
As of almost 12 months ago now, OXB no longer has an in-house experimental drug division. That risk is now taken by our customers. OXB these days performs a service, invoices for that work and moves on. Assuming cost controls are maintained (and why wouldn't they be?) then on a certain percentage of utilisation and upwards, OXB will do increasingly well.
With everything you do in life there will be somebody happy to tell you where you are going wrong, but with the ABL purchase (for example) then the GeoVax work alone seems to suggest that was an excellent addition.
Where things did go wrong (no work in the post covid slump / Homology then going out of business) OXB seem to have righted the ship (our old customers and many more new are back and Boston has non-Homology AAV work growing / is becoming a LV hub).
It's a good story, but as we have mentioned here many times, most in the market see OXB as a covid vaccine stock post-covid.
Novo know it isn't, which leads to my other pet theory of the moment, but exceptional events aside, there's likely a very good chance that OXB have no plans to tell us anything in what remains of 2024 now (effectively 4 weeks). |
Like today and over the past few weeks, the volume is unusually high.
As mentioned, lets hope something is brewing. If the 2026 forcast holds firm next year, we should be ok. |
takeiteasy,
I'm guessing and it's nothing more than a theory which seems to me to fit quite well.
Remember the only real news OXB have given us this year has been the upward revision of the guidance for FY25 and then news that we will be making a multiple myeloma CAR-T vector for somebody soon. Odds are that the next OXB news will be more detail on that.
However, in the background here we have OXB's silent running and the possible simple coincidence that no OXB insiders have bought shares since Novo Holdings (the major OXB shareholder) bid for Catalent (huge CDMO which has a 4 / 5 plant C> division).
My guess here is that Novo (who officially are only buying 50 location Catalent to get 3 sites to sell to Nordisk for their weight loss drugs) have a little side plan here to combine OXB with the Catalent C> division. It would roll out OXB's industry leading tech (I realise I'm biased as a holder but it is) into a capacity / capability which would be unaffordable for us near term, but for Novo could potentially give them a lion's share of a market forecast for C> which is huge.
So what are the possibilities?
1) it's a complete coincidence and means nothing.
2) it's related to the Novo Holdings boss saying that they intend to use their windfall from the weight loss drugs to buy up speciality service companies.
3) it's something else.
What are the answers? (aka my guesses)
1) nothing will happen with Novo and we will move into our return to profit in 2025 with a great year for shareholders.
2) Novo will make an offer for OXB (likely a friendly offer to placate IM and Serum) and create the No.1 C> CDMO in the world. With OXB's expertise, Novo's money and Catalent's waiting capacity then that's definitely on the cards there if they want to do it.
3) Could be something other than an offer for all of OXB but still linking the businesses.
We will see in time, but Novo and Catalent both see this as being cleared before the end of the year and if there is a plan involving OXB subject to that approval then what would be the point in waiting? |
Harry, is it directly important to us at OXB that this gets approved and apologies if you have explained this more clearly before but I may have missed it amongst everything else in life atm.... |
Similar story to Friday. Of course we don't know yet but seems like this is some kind of deliberate leak ahead of the official decision announcement due sometime between now and 6th December. |
The bot has finally cheered up moving to buy yesterday - these updates are more for irony/humour and information and not advice of course...if you think selling at 412 to buy back at 420 is a good trading strategy...it continues to make me think my boring LTBH works better for me :)
Signal Update (22/11)
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH ENGULFING pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 418.50, and our valid average buying price stands now at 420.00. The previous SELL signal was issued on 08/11/2024, 14 days ago, when the stock price was 412.50. Since then OXB.L has risen by +1.82% |
Hope,
It used to irk me about the free shares, but these days I see what people in the public and charity sectors get away with and just accept that it's the system. We will get what we eventually get and that's about it.
I'm sure Mark is very good at his job though - else why would Frank have brought him from the old company? |
Haven't they just cancelled the same number from a previous RSU and reissued the same amount? Presumably he has now met whatever the conditions were? |
Current culture is to incentivise everyone from the receptionist upwards. No bad thing if it makes the worklplace a happy place, builds cohesion and leads to the delivery of results.
Our problem as private investors, with major shareholders dominating the register,is to have a voice which is even noticed. Personal experience 25 years ago from the other perspective is that we are like a flea on the rear flanks of a rhino - an irritant tht can be humoured or swatted whenever required.
Woke regulation will ensure that - when appropriate - we are acknowledged, but sadly otherwise that's it. Frank doesn't really care a flying Frank about the smaller shareholder. He's not paid to.
So we have to recognise that the private investor's voice is only loud in regulatory circumstances. Otherwise we hardly count.
Sorry to be downbeat. Mr President bangs the drum so very effectively about the value within this business. Reticence from management doessn't help. |
Issued with £225k worth of shares based on today's closing price. |
Has anyone worked out that RNS? Has M.C. been a good boy or a bad boy? Or is there no change? Or the company made a mistake? |
Slight dose of melancholy this morning for me because, as those with long service badges might remember, first days of 2024 I wrote that my sole 2024 OXB target was for them to get back into the FTSE250.
Today (well close of play today if we are being picky) marks the 4th and final FTSE review of the year and quite obviously we haven't. I can't help but think that there have been a few opportunities during the year where much better IR/PR (or even some visible IR/PR) could have perhaps swung it for us, but unfortunately OXB can't / won't talk about that side of the business these days or doesn't see the point.
Anyway, onward and upward as someone once said, and I'm guessing that 4 weeks today is the end of the 2024 trading year in all but name and after the break we start our long awaited profitable year and finally return from the naughty step.
I'm sure most of you will have worked it out by now, but for the first time holding OXB (and unlike Del Boy) I don't see a "this time next year" for us as OXB shareholders.
I think Novo have eyes now firmly set on that prize of the forecast C> CDMO market and see OXB's "tech, knowhow and proven ability to expand" + Catalent's enormous waiting capacity as the route to that very big prize.
Yes it might be wishful thinking based upon a lot of news stories and circumstantial evidence all stuck together to come up with a case, but remember my honest preference would be to hold OXB as it becomes "the" pure C> CDMO with that 20%+ EBITDA margin in 2026 forecast looking very nice indeed.
But I think Novo have the same idea now (albeit on steroids). It gets rid of some of their enormous cash pile. Utilises the parts of Catalent which Novo have made no attempt to explain the attraction of. Gets them a premium slice of the gene delivery market + everything else OXB can do. Perhaps most importantly though, it would get Novo another huge income stream which was relatively risk free once mature, as of course it's the partners / customers who are taking the development risk - Novo would simply be charging handsomely for helping them with a service.
EU decide on approving the Novo Catalent purchase by 2 weeks today. |
Someone has to be ready to manufacture on that scale by the end of the next lustrum then Marcus?Who do we know who owns the biggest share of that pure C> CDMO and is in the process of buying 4 dedicated sites + the Oxford VMIC building.To have the cash to be in the right place at the right time with that capability/ capacity and the bottle to do it, then wait for the work to come? |
Novartis projected an approximately $55 billion market opportunity by 2030 for its cell and gene therapy platform |
Abingdon, UK, 21 November 2024: – OBN (UK) Ltd is thrilled to announce the winners of the prestigious OBN Awards 2024. This was the 16th year of the Awards, which OBN (UK) Ltd, the not-for-profit membership organisation that catalyses growth for the life sciences industry, established to celebrate innovation and outstanding achievement across the industry.
Presented by Ipsen, the most Impactful CRO was Oxford Biomedica, which has a mission to enable its clients to deliver life-changing cell and gene therapies globally. |
I don't think that is anything other than Novartis doing what we see mega-pharma (especially BMS) do quite often, which is to spend a relatively small amount of cash (for them) now, to get some rights to something which might turn out to be the next big thing in ten years time.
If I read Vyriad's website correctly then the modified LV which Novartis have secured some rights to hasn't even been tried on people yet. If so then that will be a long time and a lot more Novartis money before (if successful in the trial / approval process) it is sold in competition to OXB.
How it would compare to OXB re payload, targeting and such I don't know, but if the T-Charge currently in trials for them using OXB's vector works out well, then the Vyriad vector will have to start looking a lot better else they will simply drop it in a business review and stick with what they have. This is especially true when the speed of approval (i.e. arriving early) is a lot more important than arriving later with something slightly better.
I think it was Stuart at JPM who gets asked about similar and he replies that we can only ever really look 5 years ahead as anything much beyond that is pretty much anyone's guess as to what comes next. Remember back when we did the Homology deal, it was because the best paid advice said AV was dead in the water, LV would only ever be niche and thus OXB needed a good AAV. |
I wonder why they’ve decided to diversify Lv provider for new products, due to our closeness to Novo? |
Yesterday I was perhaps a little unfair when I wrote that I thought slide 17 was really the only "new" thing / point of interest for us.
By that I meant that they have added company logos for Coave, Transgene and Kalivir.
Coave had already been announced by ABL and ABL Strasbourg is the former Transgene manufacturing facility and is situated next door to their labs / offices, so those 2 could reasonably have been guessed.
Kalivir Therapeutics seems at first genuinely new to us and is based in the US, but read further and it's a MVA vector and I remember Seb saying that ABL had good MVA experience, so I think this too is probably ABL and therefore all 3 of these new names to us have come via the ABL purchase. Still good to know, but likely not "new" partners.
When I read the whole thing again today I noted the approvals on slide 9. Anvisa being the Brazilian regulator and PMDA the Japanese.
PMDA could mean something more progressed than we dare hope with Santen which would be about the right time for trialling something in the clinic. Alternatively it could be Astellas who are partnered with Kalivir. My guess is Santen though as that is most likely to be the one trialling in Japan (imho).
Re the question of who we could be partnering with in Brazil to require inspection / approval from their national regulator. I'll have to ponder that one. |
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