Great post, Harry. |
some serious consolidation here across the sector even now hitting the "big 2" GLP1 plays - so everything is relative as they say, even our OXB share price :) |
It's obviously something I've pondered myself gh, and I think the magic number is somewhere around what Serum paid.
Let me give you my logic (or lack of it) :-
At the moment OXB struggles to shake off the covid work. Some recent news articles have actually headlined "Lossmaking vaccine manufacturer...".
Next year OXB will make a profit (a small one yes, but finally that "lossmaking" monkey off our backs - if I can still say that without a police visit at 4am).
A profitable CDMO should trade on 5.5x sales on average. OXB have said a projected FY2024 revenue range of £126 million to £134 million and better than 35% on that for 2025.
Can we say £180m revenue next year as a round number? x 5.5 = somewhere around £10 per share as a fair value.
Then you need a bid premium. Pick your number but 50% would have Serum not losing face on their 3% (just). |
The “bid” number will be an interesting one indeed. Making a friendly offer but not wanting to be seen to overpay is a tricky one…all that said, the overall number is like petty cash to Novo.
Interesting times and removes the hardest decision for me..knowing when to sell |
Slide 17 - look at the new names.
Good set of slides but still at interims for the KPI stuff it looks, so hard to guess anything from that. |
I'm more than happy with my OXB investment the management are switched on and the future looks positive. I hedged my position in Cambridge Cognition with OXB and that has proved worthwhile. In the long term both busineses being great examples of business at its best and creating employment for highly educated graduates |
Gareth, don't believe snide comments from people who have a long history of looking down on and criticising other people's efforts whilst lazily contributing sfa themselves.
This is a great company and if you want to be part of of an online community which is largely actually enthusiastic about that then you do it, but to be fair I can't ever remember them dropping a pre-emptive RNS about something which was going to be in a presentation later that day. They just wouldn't do that.
When they post the slides, I think most we can hope for will be an update of the KPI numbers, but we will see. |
Gareth don't believe some of the hype spouted here just leads to disappointment |
No 7am RNS ahead of todays presentation at 10am, Jeffries Conference. |
 Dom,
As I happily admit, I'm no market professional but I have watched OXB for a long time and I have a reasonable memory.
For most of this year, if we broke 100k daily volume then it was a very good day.
We could argue that was because OXB have said very little since the beginning of the year and of course there is the curious question regarding no senior staff share purchases this year as well.
Of late we are seeing much better volume (352,886 shares traded today) but somehow this is being managed by price movements during the day, whilst the end of day close is often within spitting distance of the opening price (today +0.24%).
What are the chances of that happening regularly by accident (the supply apparently matching demand almost perfectly)?
The order book at close has 3 bids of 275p, 280p and 285p all at exactly 5,000 shares and the offer side has 415p, 420p, 425p and 435p all at exactly 1,200 shares.
I'm sure that's done to get the correct closing price somehow and tomorrow they will all expire without being actioned.
I don't know what is happening but we are seeing a load of big volume days with no news from OXB to excite small punters in a recession market and no thresholds broken by people with deep enough pockets to have to notify (% over 3% if based here / % over 5% if outside).
The only scenario I can come up with is brokers working very hard to fill big orders at very tight prices with order sizes which will stay below declaration thresholds. But why?
Is simply "time" with OXB about to enter the year where it returns to profit from 3 years in the wilderness, or is it something else?
I wonder when OXB will upload tomorrow's Jefferies presentation, which of course will be our latest and only update from them since the interims. Hopefully they won't take forever with that.
Can't believe any of this today was down to some part-time guy who was notified as starting another job on exactly the same day. |
If only there were a treatment to stop a share dropping 4% in half an hour with no news at all? |
I wasn't trying to trash it Super (if it read that way) but I'm guessing we agree that the currently secret commercial CAR-T multiple myeloma deal (or similar) is far more relevant to us as Cabaletta have nothing anywhere near a registration trial endpoint. |
For the 3 SLE patients there's only one Grade 1 AE, which is pretty minimal. The LN patient didn't do as well in that regard, but seems to have started off really ill, and ended up much better - zero immunosuppressants, and steroids in continuing taper. Her own testimony is highly positive, on slide 23. I think they'll be very happy with those lupus results.
Still very early days though, so unlikely to be significant for oxb for a long while yet, but good to hear positive results in a hard to treat disease. |
Not a doctor PB but it started off with perfect safety data, whereas now they seem to have events in SLE (see slide 16)
As for the actual results for the patients, see slide 24
These were patients with untreatable / treatment resistant disease, so any result is a plus - I would guess they were hoping for better though (even at this early stage).
Have to wait for the end of the trial for true long term data and that will be some time. As you will have probably worked out from recent posts, I don't think it will a consideration for us. |
More positive news from Cabaletta HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cabalettabio_cabaletta-bio-investor-webcast-activity-7264250287505207297-1k_o?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android |
Xoptimist,
One of these situations where I'm a bit indifferent to be honest.
I'm sure a top chap and OXB does seem a lot more able to attract "better" candidates these days (I'm thinking back now to how long some of our senior positions were either open or filled via an acting role by whoever happened to be around in the past). Which is nice. Countering that, my life experience is that people who are "polyvalent" (a term very popular amongst professionals in occupied Europe) just can't be experts at everything on their cv as even with bright people it takes a very long time to become really good at any one thing.
An example could be people who go into any city career with a law or medicine degree. I'm sure they are very bright people but after they have been a whatever-else for 20 years, would you want them giving you a legal or medical opinion? Neither would I. For the specialist consultant you go for the man/woman who regardless of everything else has specialised for 30 years on exactly what you want and by nature of their career path choice that isn't most senior managers.
Then of course there is what the role is for us (to replace Stuart as he retires) which is a liaison / oversight role, where (I'm guessing) gravitas and interpersonal skills to keep major shareholders supportive matters a lot more than almost anything else.
Also, OXB's ESG policy (or similar) will likely mean that their first choice would always have been a woman, but all suitable which were available had been snapped up by companies higher up the food chain.
Have you ever started 2 jobs at once? |
I think Colin Bond is a fantastic, high calibre appointment to the board who brings with him a wealth of experience in pharma; finance; audit; international deal making and who will almost certainly be a useful sounding board and advisor to Frank and his team. |
Does it help being a former pharmacist or involved in biotech during your career when appointed to an audit committee? |
My heart skipped a beat, then I read that We’ve made a change in the audit committee.
If carlsberg made boring RNS’s … |
...and YOUR theory icejelly? Oh. You don't know nuffink! |
Does this high volume, low price movement fit in with Harry's theory? If not, it will fit in with one of his other theories I'm sure. |
Best part of 400k today. These are big volumes for very small price movement. |
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