Speakers
André Raposo, PhD, Director, Innovation Department, Oxford Biomedica
Gareth McCathie, PhD, Group Lead, Oxford Biomedica
Thomas Evans, Principal Scientist, Oxford Biomedica |
 All I want for Christmas is back in the FTSE250 Gareth (which you may have spotted me mentioning occasionally before... once or twice).
The trouble is that we are fast coming up to my final chance of the year (a fortnight tomorrow) and unless Mr Poonwalla decides to play Santa for us this Christmas and put an order our way labelled "Malaria" to be ready for the seasonal demand next year, then I'm thinking that there aren't many other things which could gain us a quid on the share price in 10 days. Maybe some good CAR-T news about myeloma, but I'm in wishful thinking mode at this point.
Long term then yes, I'm pretty convinced that Novo are the only probable buyers, but they are such a huge organisation. There will be committees to satisfy and such - they may just want OXB to be profitmaking overall or they may want to see France and the US holding their own independently, but I think that these huge organisations all share this same trait where they are happier to pay more later for a certainty than take a risk early with a bargain.
Maybe that will happen next year (i.e. Novo triggered by OXB profitability on routine non-exceptional work) or maybe it will be later, but of course that will have a lot more to do with our other major shareholders and what they are prepared to accept. For IM to give up their old French interests and for Vulpes to hand over their decades old shares (examples chosen as new and old there) I'm sure it won't be cheap for Novo Holdings (but then they are mega-wealthy and likely don't care). |
Great comparison and likely projected valuation HST.Is Christmas coming? Adverts on TV. |
Obviously I'm biased here Cousin, but I've done a turn on this once in post 8626
I still don't think Avid have any vectors to offer. What they offer is to work on / manufacture the one which the customer already has.
Yes I might be wrong but try and find their vector on their website.
As I mention in the above link / previous post, OXB say quite often that they think they are the only CDMO which is 100% pure CGT and has rights to 2 proven off the shelf vectors to offer for most of the market (AAV & LV) plus experience of working on c10 others including of course AV for the covid vaccine.
Seb said that most of our competition are biologics CDMOs who have dipped a toe into CGT. I think Avid would be covered by that description.
So no vectors of their own but a purpose-built 53,000 sq. ft. viral vector facility.
OXB have the vectors (first FDA approved LV in Kymriah has been a massive validation of what OXB can do) and OXB have 183,000 sq ft in Oxford, 96,000 sq ft in Boston and 123,000 sq ft in France.
That multiple would be reassuring if we were comparable, but imagine if their facilities were 8x as big, they had their own vectors and c40 customers. What multiple then?
Just to do my Peter the repeater bit to end here, I still think there's only one obvious buyer for OXB. Most valuable listed company in Europe and they already own 12% or so. |
Miserable drift downwards again... |
We're doing well keeping politics off the thread lads.
Still a chance of some news from OXB in the next 10 days, but it might revolve around me winning £103m tomorrow now. |
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won't be dull now will it in big pharma land... |
Just a quick starter, great to see trump win the popular vote, great to see Germany's politics in turmoil.
H. i am happy you concur, we have to be patient, i suspect next year we should see a significant rise in the share price propelling us into the 250. |
FTSE is 22nd. The 6th (yesterday) was MSCI (different indexes). |
Have the official FTSE250 changes been announced as I have not seen a link yet. Chart looking more bullish again so patience as ever with holding with this share :) |
Good step up first thing but no volume? Didn’t last long! |
Harry,you're right of course but frankly i've been irritated by comments like "you can't say that" ever since it became an accepted censorious refrain a good twenty years back.Folk can wave foreign flags in support of their causes in UK cities,surely my innocuous comments will be shrugged off as an irrelevance. |
SJ, I think we have to be extremely diplomatic re politics for a bit. Definitely a case of least said soonest mentioned and, as we saw the other day, a surprising number of OXB followers were rather keen on the other candidate.
Phil, I agree. I'm disappointed but not surprised (I had a go at reading the methodology for inclusion in the index and it's complex).
So, it really is hit and hope now for what was basically my sole target for this year - to get back in the FTSE250.
It's still possible, but I think needs OXB news to be sure of it. Pick your own odds for that.
If it happens I'll be very pleased. If we miss another quarter then end of Feb is next chance and if we get to May then we will have seen this year's results and a forecast for the profitmaking year. |
Beaten by a Raspberry Pi |
Doesn’t look like we made it |
Indeed Harry.
Hope isn’t a great investment strategy but is probably as useful as all that charting, Fibonacci, fill the gap, cup and handle nonsense that many espouse to.
Oxb story, future forecast and trend looks good and I’m hoping
Good luck all holders |
Jasie,
The US market is delighted. The UK market I think happy for Wall St but still trying to work out what the first Labour budget did for us in the FTSE.
Reminding you of my amateur status here, I think I'm correct in saying that the yield on the 10 year gilts is now slightly higher than the number which caused the downfall of Liz Truss after her first budget. Fractions of a percentage yes but it's still big money on the size of the sums they borrow.
I'm not suggesting it will be the downfall of a Labour government, but we saw big withdrawals from the equity markets in anticipation of what RR was going to do and I've seen stories since which say the record equity withdrawals (from funds) has continued afterwards too.
Sweeping statement here but if people lose confidence in RR and see that she blew her big chance by wasting a lot of raised treasury income on doing nothing productive for the country, then they know she will be back for more soon and that will inspire nobody with confidence.
If I'm correct with any of that blunderbuss blast of a view, then we only really notice any fund selling when it crosses a percentage threshold. If there has been a lot of selling today though (in the 440k of volume), then we did very well with ready / willing takers to keep us more or less were we started the day at close.
But we have to focus on the future upside and I'm very hopeful that 415p at close today + all the other metrics they consider will have us back in the MSCI tonight.
My guess is that this will be the link and that it will come live sometime after 10pm tonight
If it does then the "MSCI UNITED KINGDOM INDEX" is around page 6 and it will list the additions for this quarter. If OXB is included again, then remember my previous point that over 800k was sold by just 3 funds when were left the same index.
I think that readmission would be a very good thing for us over the next weeks and months. Fingers crossed. |
I just wish I hadn't put $5 on A Horse called Harris! What do I know! |
Gareth
Like you I expected a better reaction from the markets this afternoon but everything seems to be very stagnant. |
A little over 400k shares traded so far today with the price all-over the place. |
Very possible Gareth, but world politics aside I think the coincidental Morgan Stanley Capital International quarterly review today is more significant for OXB shareholders short term.
As Phil mentions yesterday, sometime tonight we will know if we are back in this or not
I looked at the qualification pdf and it's nowhere as near as simple as the FTSE index (inclusion by market cap) and they take into account all kinds of things like ESG scores, so really I'm just guessing that we will get back in.
My logic? Look at that datasheet and the smallest market cap in there at the moment is £147m (so they will be getting booted out) with OXB having more than doubled our market cap to £447m since we were booted this time last year. Also I'm guessing that our ESG score will be up since Lucy was appointed.
However, OXB won't be the only company trying to get in that index at close of play today - though I am hopeful. If it happens I'll be a lot more confident about the 250 on the 22nd. If not then OXB probably need to post some news. We will see. |
Look out for a bounce for OXB at 14.30pm GMT when NYSE opens. OXB usually pick up at this time. |
135k shares in the first 30 mins? Election bounce or someone who understands the MSCI criteria? |
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