Oh dear ..this is how religious wars start. |
I would have thought Psalm 22 was more appropriate here. |
Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me.
Psalm 23
Well,well,i think a bit of scripture reading wouldn’t go amiss in the Dominic household.Thereagain,could be a reference to “into the valley of death rode the 600’.Time will tell. |
Mainly heathens on the BBs Gareth. You may have to explain that. |
23rd Psalm, a Psalm of David? |
 Many have made points in the past here about the number of shares firmly held these days and the decreasing fraction available to churn with the usual changes in supply and demand. I'm sure those aren't quite the correct terms, but as the likes of Blackrock (perhaps a bad example) appear holding 5% or more then what happens when news or some other event creates a sudden demand?
You know I'm a bull, never hide it and there are a few others on the thread of a similar mind who have been here for a very long time. So yes there will be confirmation bias but I'm convinced OXB was way oversold because most small shareholders who bought in for covid only knew OXB as a covid share and when the vaccine work ended they all charged for the door and created a death spiral.
How much that was helped by people in dark glasses who saw the opportunity to make a lot of money out of it I don't know, but as I have pointed out before with links to the shares shorted chart which I post occasionally, when most shares are outstanding the threads here are being carpet-bombed with very negative posts by a handful of people. Once the shorts closed then it stopped. OK some of them may just have been idiots entertaining themselves, but a remarkable coincidence if no connection to most of it.
I have a hindsight feeling that OXB + much better PR could have just about kept that at bay had not Homology gone bump, but that's fortunes of war. With hindsight it would have been better had we never seen them, but at the time the smart money said go AAV. You know what happened next.
But here we are having travelled through the shadow of the valley of death, and still with a chance this month of having all past sins forgiven via readmission to the MSCI and FTSE250. Not long to find out with the first one there. |
All the buzz words there ‘operational gearing’,̵7;excellent growth prospects’ and even a mention of being a potential tasty corporate morsel for good measure.Yes,once Oxford Biomedica becomes profitable,its probably fair to assume that Threadneedle (under whatever guise) will be buying more.Makes me wonder how many other sizeable institutions have this unwritten rule that they don’t buy lossmakers.All of a sudden,the OXB boat could be on a broad reach with the wind in its sails once it becomes profitable and one will regret not buying more despite the memorably choppy ride. |
I'm going to go into OXB OCD again here SJ, but the following may be of interest:-
A long time ago there was a "financial TV" type interview with one of the fund managers from Threadneedle posted on here.
Apart from the Novartis / Pfizer slip obviously a lot more knowledgeable than the interviewer about OXB - i.e. a follower and if you look at the last annual report on page 116 then they were buyers already this year - i.e. 3,183,728 at the beginning of the year and 3,245,381 by 15th of April.
I may be hearing what I want to hear in the interview, but it sounds very much to me that he's implying they will be in for more as OXB turns profitable - which as we know is the year which is 8 weeks away.
I'm sure he knows that better than us. I'd also bet another pound of Dom's money that the Threadneedle guy will know if OXB is going to be back in the MSCI this week or not. |
Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle Holdings Limited, which is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle Group (Management) Limited, which is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle Group (Holdings) Limited, which is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle AM (Holdings) Plc, which is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle (Europe) Limited, which is wholly owned by Columbia Threadneedle Investments UK International Limited, which is wholly owned by Ameriprise Financial, Inc.which which which |
Well,i'll take it as reassuring without going too deeply into the rather opaque world of holding declarations.There can be an unsatisfactory delay between time of dealing and notification of a share holding and i would guess that this share purchase was the reason why the shares shot from 390 to around 440 in short order the week before last.It could be the large buyer which Dominic C understood was in the wings a fortnight back. |
No great surprise that low, and better than the techmark index I suppose :) |
Well spotted Cousin.
takeiteasy,
Have you seen the fraction of healthcare in the MSCI? (page 2 pie chart) |
So Columbia Threadneedle (per the RNS detail) were down as 3.06% in the OXB annual report, so have built another 2% over the last 6 months or so. Their business also now includes the old F&C/I&S/BMO funds but not sure where the OXB position held. |
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. is an American diversified financial services company and bank holding company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.[1] It provides financial planning products and services, including wealth management, asset management, insurance, annuities, and estate planning.[1]As of April 2022, more than 80% of the company's revenue came from wealth management.[1][2]Ameriprise was formerly a division of American Express, which completed the corporate spin-off of the company in September 2005.The company is ranked 245th on the Fortune 500.[3] It is on the list of largest banks in the United States. and was also ranked the 9th largest independent broker-dealer based on assets under management. It is one of the largest financial planning companies in the United States and is among the 25 largest asset managers in the world.[1] It is ranked 8th in long-term mutual fund assets in the U.S., fourth in retail funds in the U.K., and 27th in global assets under management |
Honestly never heard of them Tricky, but
(quote)
The company specializes in retirement-related financial planning for affluent clients. It offers variable annuities and life and disability insurance. It also operates Ameriprise Bank, FSB, which offers a variety of consumer banking and lending products and personal trust and related services. Since 2015, its asset management arm has operated under the name Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The company uses three principal brands for its businesses in the United States: Ameriprise Financial, Columbia Management and RiverSource.
(unquote)
We have seen Threadneedle before I think so maybe a bit of a tangled web here? |
So our accumulator is unveiled. |
Not impossible - interesting just how few firms from the health sector are linked to FTSE 250...look at the big investors in this area e.g. Mercantile IT close to zero investment in this sector and as you look at all the other names it follows a very similar pattern.
We need firms like OXB to build a strong and stable franchise that develops some level of dull and boring predictability that the institutional investors would be looking for using their so called " data screens" based on investment output stats on risk and return and market cap data.
This share seems so thinly traded that it takes a small puff of wind to more the dial up thank goodness near term so we do not need a huge push from bigger IIs but do hope later into 2025 that all the IR push we are making towards this cohort starts to show up a bit more.
Getting back over 430 today may bring back the momentum crowd...wdik.. |
takeiteasy,
I suspect that there's not that many of us. In happier times the sweeps would regularly get a lot of entries (up to 40ish) and of course not everybody would be interested in partaking. But a lot of disciplined holders would have bailed out long before the bottom. Have they come back since Frank's new regime? Maybe some of them.
You know my take. We have all been waiting for news for a long time. OXB insiders are way smarter than the average bear, they can see how the company is doing and technically had the opportunity to buy shares at half price. None of them did (even token amounts) which confirms to me beyond reasonable doubt that they couldn't.
That almost certainly means they know what is coming next and would be able to benefit from knowing something you don't. When will that news come? Tomorrow? This afternoon? February? Who knows? What we do know is that it takes as long as it takes for anything except pandemic vaccines.
That random wildcard aside, there are a couple of things which we know will happen in the next 15 working days. Those of course are the MSCI rebalance this week and the FTSE250 reshuffle at the end of those 15 working days.
If we get back into the MSCI then IMO that means a lot more for OXB shareholders over the next 3 months than whoever is declared winner in the latest US beauty contest.
We need to average at least +10p per day for the next 15 days to stand a chance of getting back into the 250. With no news from OXB then I think it all depends on buyers coming back if the MSCI review readmits OXB this week.
If not then likely the status quo until either big OXB news or the next quarterly reviews. |
Not all of us.... |
All this talk about US politics has scared all the OXB punters off today - they must read into this BB that the die hards have lost interest and are bored :) |
Time to let politics go and concentrate on our favourite subject, dear OXB. Til the morning, yn y bore! Looking forward to fireworks this week!!!! |
I promise to get back to OXB tomorrow and shut up about current events (or at least give it a try).
Last anecdote from the Winston Churchill school of study history because it's all happened before.
I honestly don't know if this story is true or just a good story, but the way I was told it was this:-
William Randolph Hearst is sat in his newspaper office and calls his top roving hack and photographer.
WRH "I want you to go to Cuba and cover the war"
Reporter "What war?"
WRH "The one which is going to start when our ship is attacked"
The reporters go to Havana and and an American warship explodes in the harbour starting the Spanish American war which got the USA the Philippines and lots of other goodies in the Caribbean whilst marking the end of Spain as a world power.
Is it true? Who knows. Would a country blow up their own ship and want the press on side to gain assets to make it a world power? Would it surprise you? |
I have never looked to political leaders to be examples of moral rectitude or providers of moral guidance.From feted heroes of distant history,to the likes of Lloyd George and JFK,flawed individuals have achieved power.I don't even expect to learn the complete truth.Russian missiles in Cuba in 63 but no mention of US missiles in Turkey,weapons of mass destruction in Iraq ,we are drip fed selective information so we will conclude what powerful lobbies,political and military,want us to believe.I'm not a conspiracy theorist but i do believe that the powers that be,invariably connive to keep the general public pretty much in the dark,exaggerating this and underplaying that,according to their agenda.A benign dictatorship seems increasingly acceptable in my advancing years :) |
sj,
I actually know somebody who is basically in the process of planning their return from Portugal right now. I think 15 great years but they want to come home now. The tax incentives to get them out there were fabulous and it's an extremely cheap place to live (apart from buying cars - though there is a dodge to take one with you I think), but the downsides are the weather (great most of the year but 3 months of just too hot) and the fact that though you can pick up some conversational language, for anything official you are usually relying on the kindness of strangers.
I know a few Brits who have emigrated to the US and made a go of it. Pick one of the states without state income tax (9 of those I think) and you get to keep quite a large lump of what you earn. The major downside of course is the healthcare costs - especially regarding insurance as you get older. For the very wealthy you can simply wing it but for mortals then insurance is essential and very costly.
I'm not sure there is any perfect place - but my compromise would have to be somewhere "nice" i.e. I wouldn't be living in the middle eastern desert to save a few quid on tax. |
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