 sj, I think sometimes (maybe a lot of the time) the poll questions are phrased in such a way that it's very difficult not to give the answer / opinion which the polling company has been paid to find. I think YouGov fell out of favour because many things, but leading questions was one of them - hence not many people put any faith in their results.
On the subject of fear, I have an old friend in the US who works on staff at a university (not a famous one, just an ordinary state university). She is a flag of convenience Democrat at work because it would be bad for her and her career to be a known Republican. She suspects that there are a number of others like herself but has no way to prove that without exposing herself. She has worked there through both Bush Jnr & Snr elections and of course Trump. She told me that every time (in the run-up) there were numerous people who she worked alongside / knew of at the university who were going to flee to Canada if the Republicans won. She's never seen anybody go. |
I'll let them off Super ;) |
This is one of the most divisive elections in US history.The WSJ comments today- 'Among Harris's voters, 57% said they would feel "frightened" if Trump is elected, while 47% of Trump voters said they would feel frightened if Harris wins.'Whoever wins,the atmosphere is going to feel very raw. |
H, maybe you mis enterpreted my post. Donald simply has to win this one. Any other result would be simply catastrophic. It is that important. |
Sorry posted twice . |
All you need is love. All we need is NEWS, and lots of it.
Nobody has mentioned the US election which i am sure is going to spook the markets for the next month or 3 !!!! |
jez,
Yet again breaking my solemn oath to abstain from politics on this thread, you're basically putting yourself into the hands of single American women.
Maybe you remember, but in the post '97 analysis Blair won Major's share of the female vote. The majority of everybody else kept to their usual preference.
Obama's big edge was getting 97% of the black registered vote. Yes most blacks live in democratic states anyway, but the remainder (a surprising number who are republicans - in medicine, the military, business and such) changed allegiance and went with Obama.
KH has been desperately trying to repeat Obama's play but the polls repeatedly show that it's not working out the same for her (say what you like about Obama's actual policies - he did give a good speech, which is something where KH falls down badly).
You might think that would be incidental, but as someone once said, politics is showbusiness for ugly people.
So KH is now going all out for that single / college degree / female vote which bizarrely Biden won but Hillary didn't.
If she can swing that one then she will win some blue states and maybe enough electoral college votes, but if voters look at their finances (which apparently comes up again and again in polling surveys) then it's going to be memories of Trump's economy which re-elect him.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out. The bookies think it's Trump and in recent years they have done much better than the pollsters. |
My pound would be on redemptions super. In the runup to the budget a lot of people were selling assets out of fear. If redemptions from Liontrust took them below their minimum cash float then they would have no option but to sell holdings, and when they did that last year they simply sold the same tiny percentage of everything they held in the fund. |
Looks to me like Liontrust simply wanted to go under the 5% boundary, but why that's significant for them I've no idea. |
I think a lot of these websites just want traffic - i.e. they don't care if you follow the latest computer generated tip or not - they just want people who follow popular shares to click to look at the latest tip so that the website owner gets a penny from each of the advertisers on the page. Enough traffic and it must be quite lucrative else they wouldn't be able to pay Google monthly protection money to always come up near the top in the company name searches.
The only tips (for want of a better word) which we can 100% rely on either come directly from OXB or via RBC. |
if Liontrust are distressed sellers then we need to wait until they have cleared out their sale orders - is this now the case?
The bot machine would have tipped you out of this stock now...lols..
Signal Update
Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY IN CASH. The previous SELL signal was issued on 29/10/2024, 2 days ago, when the stock price was 421.63. Since then OXB.L has fallen by -5.60%.
Market Outlook
The bears still have the upper hand in the market. The share price is below the confirmation level, and the signal is suggesting to STAY IN CASH. A more cautious attitude may be required, but there is no definite sign to urge you into action and to disturb your comfort of being on the sidelines.
All BS to me if you are LTBH...then you are no doubt told to buy back in at a higher price whilst shedding dealings charges all the time....
Cannot really fathom why some rely on these tools....but heh ho what do I know...nai etc |
My guess would simply be the budget Dom.
i.e. big relief yesterday that it could have been worse / reality today of what it is.
OXB could help us with any news they are allowed to release, but getting back into the index on the 6th then 22nd remain my goals. Hopefully Friday steadies the ship and we can return to our previous trend. |
If they wanted it down,and back to where it was languishing a fortnight ago, what was the breakout through £4 for? |
I'm pretty confident that OXB have at least one "proper" RNS locked and loaded.
My simple logic there is that they told us this in March "Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility."
From this
And then at the interims there was slide 7 (see right hand side) on this
I would bet a pound that the drug in the RNS is one of the 3 OXB tell us about on slide 7. Why else tell us? What I don't know is when it will happen, but I do know that commercial supply is a big deal (look what we earn from Novartis). |
Yes indeed but i think its very easy for companies to concentrate on the job in hand,especially when they're involved in an esoteric science like biotech.A lot of senior management don't give two figs for the stock exchange and don't have much confidence that some teenage scribbler will fully understand their business.They probably have a point.Ultimately,the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and the reality will out.Looking at the way the Oxford Biomedica share price has moved over the last three years,you could be forgiven for believing the stock exchange is a complete lottery.I have long felt that numerous smaller companies would be better off staying private.That said,i agree,if you are listed you should make every effort to communicate your corporate message effectively. |
Steeplejack. Isn't that an argument to support companies, especially smaller companies, to use their own publicity departments to promote the company? |
I agree Dom.
I think a US company has to put out a lot more news as the investors demand to be kept up to speed. They also tend to report quarterly (even smaller companies) and have those federal "state of play" form submissions which are a mandatory record and anyone can look up.
The trouble is that we are basically Anglo-French now, which is a combination of corporate modesty (not on to show off) coupled with snappy dressing and better food.
We were told that we were trading the pipeline page and those RNS of the type "undisclosed partner / indication / financial details" for the KPI table. It does seem we are only going to get that twice per year though.
I still think market sensitive news will get us the old style RNS as they are obliged to do that. |
You know me well Mr President Sir, but the issue is ANY attempt to promote the share value is absent other than relying on two occasions in the year, Interims and Results. Not good enough these days. |
takeiteasy,
Looking at the chart this morning and wearing my chartist's hat (cone shaped with a D on it), I'm going to say budget exodus which also led to Liontrust redemptions is over now and normal service is resuming. |
Dom,
I realise you know this without me reminding you, but with c40 active clients at the moment then there will pretty much always be some news around. If the client doesn't want the news though, and the business value is already covered in next year's projection, they they are not going to announce anything.
More likely, again from the interims - "four clients preparing for commercial launch of CAR-T products." - which probably means 4 RNS at some point, as a commercial MSA for the patent life of the drug is worth a lot of money to us.
The point to bear in mind of course is that "preparing" is not much use wrt timescale. |
hxxps://www.closebrothersam.com/media/dtreuuta/close-ftse-techmark-fund-31324-annual-report-accounts.pdf
page 10 - not built up quite enough yet to turn the dial here :) |
#9036 Nor have we released any market sensitive news. Perhaps there is no equivalent to 'RNS' in French? |
Only if there are enormous funds out there which are either techmark LSE index trackers or have fund rules which include techmark LSE index constituents as an option.
I realise you're jesting but the 250 is mid-cap and that lets a lot more institutions buy. A small number will have to. I assume MSCI is similar and I'm hoping that one will trigger the other. (Sort of the reverse of our fall from grace where somebody having to sell was forcing someone else and so on). |
Harry, we have never left the techmark LSE index - has that helped though? :) |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
