I don't think so Alchemy, but 230k shares traded so far today which looks like another big day in the making for us. |
Budget fears ? |
325th place in the index was £554.8m last Friday.
OXB have 105m shares.
If the market remains flat then 529p would push the bottom share out.
Lots of ifs and it will either do it or it won't, but I think getting back in the MSCI can't hurt wrt what happens in the last fortnight before the FTSE review. |
OXB factsheet out today reminding us of why our tech is frontrunning.
Impossible to guess who it is I would say (we have a lot of T-Cell partners) but someone is obviously pleased. |
Appears to be loads of tiny sales knocking the share price down... |
is neutral the politically correct word for hold then? |
JPMorgan raises Oxford Biomedica price target to 450 (305) pence - 'neutral' |
Irrespective of all of these index discussions the impressions that I get from all the posts from Harry over these past months is that an share price of 5-6 quid is not an unreasonable near term share price level based on current news even though that represents an extraordinary uplift from the very bottom that we had recently. So gives some hope to the LTHs. nai etc |
Which has greater influence on weightings? MSCI or FTSE.
In most markets it is MSCI but probably FTSE in UK.
I still think re-entry into MSCI is far more likely than FTSE hence I think 250 re-entry comes next Quarter. |
I'd agree with all of that gh, but I think this week will be a very good indication of how likely it is we'll get back in at the last review of the year. 25p or more up over the next week and I'd see that as a very good sign.
I'm obviously pretty confident myself but we have to wait and see now and of course we have the budget - but if that hits OXB then it probably hits every other share too, so doesn't really matter as the market cap threshold will drop proportionally lower.
Should hopes be dashed at the last minute then OXB are still going to get back in, it will just be at a later review in the new year.
There is the obvious wildcard here of what OXB might announce in news over the next month (my best guess at most likely being detail of the myeloma CAR-T deal). Something which includes big numbers and I'm sure we would be carried in with quite a margin. |
Very exciting times in next few weeks.
It’s all been building nicely.
Momentum seems to be in our favour.
I’ve been very lucky with Oxb over the last 25 years but remain more optimistic than ever. |
The Coca-Cola bottling company is big enough to join the FTSE 100 while Deliveroo, Oxford Nanopore and THG would slot into the FTSE 250 at their current market capitalisation.
www.trustnet.com/news/13428489/how-your-ftse-100-and-ftse-250-trackers-are-going-to-change-dramatically-in-2025 |
You could be right.Ceres (which i mentioned earlier) stormed into the FT250 at the most recent review and has fallen thereafter by some 30% in a matter of weeks.However,in OXBs case,i suppose re-entry into the FT250,would,at the very least,be a welcome confirmation of 'rehabilitation' in investors eyes post the market feeding frenzy surrounding stocks identified as covid beneficiaries.The 'love 'em and leave 'em' approach experienced by these favourites has seen the majority suffer an almighty hangover.Moderna,for example,despite rallying a year back,is now hitting new four year lows.I think news of inclusion in the FT250 will be gratefully received by OXB as evidence that the market appreciates the company's direction of travel. |
I understand this hypothetical conversation about the possibility of an imminent re entry into the 250 and some good points have been made. But in my view it doesn't matter a jot if we enter this time around. I cast my mind back to the last time we entered and the movement in the share price was negligable at best until COVID hit.
Maybe better to wait another 6 months, cement in some solid news, coupled with 250 inclusion anticipation rise. In my humble opinion an equally if not superior scenario. |
 Biotech (as drug discovery) is uncannily similar to oil / mineral exploration in many ways.
Companies in both raise money to try to discover something and the majority in both sectors run out of money without the dream coming true.
People who follow the Bios (and I've followed a few) always like to try to find something which gives them an edge, but it is a very high attrition rate and most bios go bust before their Hail Mary moment.
Miracles do happen (like Summit of late) but most fall away.
Drop on a good one early enough and Sunseeker will send you their latest brochures. Pick the wrong one and you can easily walk away with nothing.
Newcomers to OXB (management) have often said that OXB stood out as a 25+ year biotech company because that just doesn't happen. What they mean is that by that time the funding rounds are long exhausted or you have discovered a drug and were quickly bought out by a pharmaceutical company.
OXB of course survived because even though their own drugs never quite made it, they began to provide services to others instead - thus becoming self funding - and that is now all we do.
In the past I've written a few times in various places that I'll never do another 100% pure drug discovery play at early stage because the risk is just too high and the timescales too long for my age now.
I'm still mostly of that mindset, and although I'm almost certain to dabble again at some point - it will only be a dabble.
So the sector is ordinarily brutal and then it was hit by covid, because to run clinical trials you either need hospital beds to use or on standby - and of course worldwide the whole hospitals were reserved for covid - so that killed even more bios than normal covid hit companies as the bios were just sat there unable to do anything other than burn raised cash. Following covid the cash was even harder to raise.
Regarding the FT250 then I think a quid over the next 4 weeks and OXB will be in. I realise that equates to quite a lot of money but the tide finally seems to have turned with OXB now and I think this trend is the result of more and more people noticing OXB (perhaps after the MF article) and taking a look at the prospects.
I'm sure there will be hedge funds out there now who have clocked that OXB could be back in the MSCI on the 6th and back in the FTSE250 on the 22nd. If they feel there is good money to be made by taking a position to help ensure that happens, then it's going to happen isn't it? |
Biotech is notoriously volatile of course and aways has been.
I’m pretty sure Harry might like to comment.I’d just make two points.Firstly,OXB’s share price has been ridiculously hit over the last three years when any rational comparison of peer group valuations are concerned and secondly,OXB has become a CDMO and as such a ‘steady eddy’ of the industry suggesting consistent cash flow and profitability. |
So around 525-550 for a possible and over 600 for more probable FTSE250 - so we need some news surely to hit the top end of this range in the next month?
500 may offer some resistance near term, but we only seem to have one large peak at 1500 in earlier times ( was not holding in those days) which makes 800 as part of that climb a resistance point if we are following a repeating pattern...wdik of course ! |
But why the considerable momentum - there has to be more to it.
Based on the following stats, would anyone in the right mind invest in UK medical sector atm without incredibly thorough research...I searched on a data source provided by AJB. The following surprised me:
Of firms in the sector on YTD performance:
20/97 beat FTSE100
55/97 made > 15% loss
34/97 made > 40% loss
What a total and utter wealth destroyer in the main this year for many I suspect.
OXB sits number 2 as the best performer league - but crikey you can strike lucky but what on earth has been going on elsewhere then.
A landing zone in a mine field possibly in 2024 :) nai etc |
Oh well,Harry's and my post crossed and his table is both a good deal more informative and up to date.The 325th spot as of the close of business yesterday is around £550m meaning OXB would have to get to 525p to be promoted. |
The FT250 table included by philh75 is a very functional list that can be adjusted online by market cap.As things stand Tritax and Henderson Europe are currently occupying the important 325th position that is necessary to gain promotion to the FT250 and they both have a market cap in the mid £570m region.OXB has 105,36m shares in issue so-as a rule of thumb-a price of around 546p would suggest OXB would currently be promoted.There's a month to go to the next review but what is striking is the recent momentum in the OXB share price and the fact that studies show that shares invariably move sharply ahead of inclusion in an index,presumably as trackers buy in anticipation.Ceres did just that ahead on the most recent review but has fallen sharply thereafter and now has a market cap below OXB. |
Sort of Phil. An easier page to read is which is updated every Friday.
Yesterday we closed at 347th place of those who qualify (you can see non-qualifying AIM stocks greyed out there) and the Friday before we were 357th place.
So knock off 100 for the FT100 and "technically" last last week we were just outside the 250 and this week just in it, but the way it actually works you have to be just above 325th place on the review date to push someone out below.
I don't want to curse it, but I think this little trend (all the traders seem to like trends) and the very good possibility that we will be back in the Morgan Stanley index in 8 working days means that 4 weeks today I will be very pleased to be calling OXB a FTSE250 stock again.
If OXB get some good news out in the next month I'd be all but certain, though I am pretty confident OXB will be readmitted after the 22nd with or without it. |
The way I read it (which may be wrong) is the last entry currently in the Ftse250 is CBG with a market cap of £551m, so oxb at £6 (£630m) has a very good chance yes. But obviously depends on other competition at the time of the review, so whether that mcap requirement has shifted upwards. |
With a MCap of £443m atm, with a seeming large number of firms with higher (in some cases much higher) mcaps, why is there belief that we have a better chance of FTSE250 entry. I know it has been repeated a number of times, but I think someone needs to show a list and who is actually ahead of us for the full context.
For example is even an share price of six quid enough for this time - I remain very unclear and would like more analysis of the data points.... |
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