Perhaps more likely the wily Indians have worked out that £50m is a worthwhile price to be able to say they CAN distribute production, but make as much as they can in India until someone complains (if they do complain). |
 There's a high level aim to make it locally in Africa. Have to be careful what you say about that else diplomatic incidents happen, but I think that might be more the dream than the reality.
Serum have said that they will do what they can to help achieve it, but from everything I've read that would be at best a fill and finish plant where some of the vaccine made by Serum would be packaged there in a political fix to satisfy everybody.
Think about the hurdles of actually doing that:- Factory site close to infrastructure. Design and build. Validate and sign off with FDA / EMA or whichever regs it's built to in order to gain the site licence. Find 100+ employees who are qualified and have the experience in doing this. Get it right first time.
Serum plainly had something in mind when they spent £50m on OXB shares, signed an MSA option which followed a memorandum of understanding and did a similar deal with the fill and finish plant in Wales. We just don't know what it is (the thing they had in mind).
I'm normally up for a Serum chat during any dull period, but as we know the MSCI thing happens next week, I think that's probably more relevant right now. |
I think k if we say Serum = Malaria vaccine, then there is a stated aim for a geographic diversity in production. |
Not sure if we understand the Serum deal correctly They have paid for the option to use OXB facilities at any time in the next ten years This is an insurance policy for them if there is production disruption in IndiaUnless such a scenario happens why start production here at I presume at a more costly rate ? |
The recent good run is probably prompting some selling to realise capital gains pre budget.It wouldn't be a great surprise if Reeves imposed capital gains changes to take effect immediately ie from midnight Oct 30th. |
Dom,
You've been here forever so know the score as well as anyone else, but on no news from the company all we can ever hope for is two steps forward and one step back. Couple this with the fact that the clocks going back always seems to mark the start of a very slow time until Christmas and we all might as well hang the stockings up early. We've seen this over many years and I'm not going to try to fight it.
We all I'm sure (OK, most of us) hope that each new trading day morning might bring that RNS where the recent commercial deal is explained, something major is announced with Serum, or anything really - just to remind the world of the previous guidance that next year OXB will be on record revenue and not make a loss.
Budget of course is tomorrow, which would be a shockingly bad day to put out a good news RNS, so by that logic we can expect a very good one.
I'm still hopeful the MSCI rebalance will give us a nice shove in the right direction next week:-
When we were booted last year we were less than half our current market cap and so regardless of that elaborate qualifying methodology of getting back in, I would assume it a formality.
You know I've looked on the fintel website many times in the past before mentioning various things here, and of the many funds (listed there) which sold during our battering were these (with historic holding of OXB shares) :-
IEUS - iShares MSCI Europe Small-Cap ETF 6,510
SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF 305,889
IEFA - iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF 353,822
IXUS - iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF 149,398
The clue obviously in the names there, but I'm sure they weren't the only MSCI linked funds which had to sell.
My assumption here is that if those funds track specifically the relevant MSCI index for OXB, and so were obliged to hold when OXB were in the index and then sell when OXB were removed (none of them now hold OXB) then what happens after the 6th of November?
If their fund rules had them cumulatively holding 800k shares which they previously had to sell, won't they now have to buy them back? |
Disappointing. But I guess after a full week of increases some are going to take something off the table. |
Cousin,
Valid points there, but just to bat it back I've been lucky enough to see a lot of the analyst valuations over the years and at first it surprised me how little of the in-house pipeline even made it to the valuations.
I'm sure you will have seen similar but basically anything preclinical was zero valuation. Early clinical stage they allowed 5% of that estimated future value (royalties of the assumed eventual share of market size) backwards through NPV to get a pence per share valuation. Later stage clinical with earlier supporting data was 10%.
When you looked at the breakdowns it was cumulatively worth remarkably little because of course the brutal (statistics backed) reality is that most trial drugs don't get there. The big valuations for us began when Novartis passed their review meeting with Kymriah and we had never had a pence per share rating from the analysts like that before.
The point I've made a few times since Frank's RNS in March is that we are now due a second one of those with partner yet unknown in multiple myeloma which I'm pretty sure is the biggest "soft" cancer market. |
Interesting what happens before and after 14.30pm (assuming NYC is still 5 hours behind. Apologies! Already open! |
Nothing goes up in a straight line, unless the newsflow is frequent and wholeheartedly positive. Consolidation is probably not a bad thing.
We don't know if there are holders taking the opportunity to knock a few shares out as these levels haven't been around for some time. We know Liontrust have been plagued with outflows and Vulpes sold a chunk a while back (pretty sure at levels quite a bit lower than now).
I'm not totally convinced that index inclusion is that impactful. Key metric theses days seems to be the daily volume traded. Index inclusion should help boost that. Not clear to me what the OXB free float would be judged as with the IM stake and others (although I think FTSE would already opine on that for the current small cap index position).
Harry - one thing I would say about previous valuation comparisons is those included an in house pipeline, which weren't at those points considered worthless. The new management team and pure CDMO model implies no value in that pipeline (but no cashflow being spent on it, either).
Will be interesting to see what the newsflow is over the remainder of this year. |
I don't think so Alchemy, but 230k shares traded so far today which looks like another big day in the making for us. |
Budget fears ? |
325th place in the index was £554.8m last Friday.
OXB have 105m shares.
If the market remains flat then 529p would push the bottom share out.
Lots of ifs and it will either do it or it won't, but I think getting back in the MSCI can't hurt wrt what happens in the last fortnight before the FTSE review. |
OXB factsheet out today reminding us of why our tech is frontrunning.
Impossible to guess who it is I would say (we have a lot of T-Cell partners) but someone is obviously pleased. |
Appears to be loads of tiny sales knocking the share price down... |
is neutral the politically correct word for hold then? |
JPMorgan raises Oxford Biomedica price target to 450 (305) pence - 'neutral' |
Irrespective of all of these index discussions the impressions that I get from all the posts from Harry over these past months is that an share price of 5-6 quid is not an unreasonable near term share price level based on current news even though that represents an extraordinary uplift from the very bottom that we had recently. So gives some hope to the LTHs. nai etc |
Which has greater influence on weightings? MSCI or FTSE.
In most markets it is MSCI but probably FTSE in UK.
I still think re-entry into MSCI is far more likely than FTSE hence I think 250 re-entry comes next Quarter. |
I'd agree with all of that gh, but I think this week will be a very good indication of how likely it is we'll get back in at the last review of the year. 25p or more up over the next week and I'd see that as a very good sign.
I'm obviously pretty confident myself but we have to wait and see now and of course we have the budget - but if that hits OXB then it probably hits every other share too, so doesn't really matter as the market cap threshold will drop proportionally lower.
Should hopes be dashed at the last minute then OXB are still going to get back in, it will just be at a later review in the new year.
There is the obvious wildcard here of what OXB might announce in news over the next month (my best guess at most likely being detail of the myeloma CAR-T deal). Something which includes big numbers and I'm sure we would be carried in with quite a margin. |
Very exciting times in next few weeks.
It’s all been building nicely.
Momentum seems to be in our favour.
I’ve been very lucky with Oxb over the last 25 years but remain more optimistic than ever. |
The Coca-Cola bottling company is big enough to join the FTSE 100 while Deliveroo, Oxford Nanopore and THG would slot into the FTSE 250 at their current market capitalisation.
www.trustnet.com/news/13428489/how-your-ftse-100-and-ftse-250-trackers-are-going-to-change-dramatically-in-2025 |
You could be right.Ceres (which i mentioned earlier) stormed into the FT250 at the most recent review and has fallen thereafter by some 30% in a matter of weeks.However,in OXBs case,i suppose re-entry into the FT250,would,at the very least,be a welcome confirmation of 'rehabilitation' in investors eyes post the market feeding frenzy surrounding stocks identified as covid beneficiaries.The 'love 'em and leave 'em' approach experienced by these favourites has seen the majority suffer an almighty hangover.Moderna,for example,despite rallying a year back,is now hitting new four year lows.I think news of inclusion in the FT250 will be gratefully received by OXB as evidence that the market appreciates the company's direction of travel. |
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