Signal Update - british bulls 18/10 went back long from short, a nasty bear trap for the shorters from 385p proven to have failed :)
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH STOP LOSS pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the Stop Loss level which was at 392.50, and our valid average buying price stands now at 395.01. The previous SELL signal was issued on 15/10/2024, 3 days ago, when the stock price was 385.11. Since then OXB.L has risen by +2.57%.
Market Outlook
A rally after a bear setup can occasionally turn into an explosive long trade. We may be on the verge of catching one of them. There is now a strong positive sentiment in the market despite the absence of a bullish pattern.
I assume most folks treat bot trading tools with a healthy pinch of salt, I only post this as I think the wording of the second paragraph best sums up the mood that I see conveyed here as LTHs...nai of course... |
Strong bounce back to end the week. Enjoy the weekend all LTH's, look forward to seeing what happens Monday. |
 I find the current valuation quite frustrating.
Appreciate all the reasons / possibilities which got us here and have been done many times - i.e. end of the vaccine contract / post-covid economy recession / then inflation & interest rates against stocks / then Homology going west as a company worth c20m per year to us.
But, a much smaller OXB pre-covid was still worth at least 50% more than today and today's OXB has OXB France about to play a blinder with the Geovax vaccine contracts and OXB USA stabilised after losing the Homology sales and just abut made up ground in new AAV / LV work.
We should be laughing and at a minimum selling on the "boring" average of 5.5x the covering analyst's consensus sales for next year of £130m.
So, 5.5 x £130m = £715m mkt cap / 105.3m shares = 679p per share and as I say that would be a very average CDMO rating - not one weighted for pure CGT work.
I think they deserve it and if it doesn't happen this year then I'm certain it will be next. I just don't see (OXB observer badge and bar) how they hit £6 and us back in the FT250 without a very good RNS in the next 25 working days.
I'm sure there is big news due and I would bet a fiver that's the same reason why none of the insiders who could have bagged some very cheap shares have done so. The big question is when will they be allowed to tell the market.
On the bright side I think that we just ended this week on a 12 month high, so I will take that and say thank you. |
Harry, at least stand in the street and do the 5 minute clap for Frank if we close about 4...within nibbling distance...of course we get your wider point...but these 30 pence from 370 to 400 have been like getting blood out of a stone so fierce has been the resistance... |
I realise I'm in stuck record mode here, but I really do think it needs a very significant RNS from Frank sometime in the next 25 working days to get us back into the FT250 this year.
Maybe technicals alone can do it - if breaking through some barrier gets momentum traders in, which then gets other curious people looking at the fundamentals (particularly next year's guidance) but I think it needs a good RNS to be sure. |
DC...quoted 3.94 to buy very small amount :) |
Who knows Dom?
Would agree it is being controlled & certainly not a natural price by any stretch of the imagination.
Look forward to a trigger but not currently holding my breath |
385p seems to be the 'right' price atm, but wait until the close, eh? |
takeiteasy, yes, and you wonder who has the heft to say to the mms "take it down another 20 pence and I'll buy tens of thousands"? I can think of one candidate. |
Interesting Santar,
I have a memory of 888 cigarettes in motor racing but no idea if that was lucky number related. |
I don't subscribe, but one of these is OXB |
We my be luckier (breakout wise) this time as the traders have done the pull down only to be met with net buyers....so they are not sitting on the fence think a quick short might get them pile of cheaper shares...let's see....not often you see a market try this hard to keep a lid on :) |
It's also four fat ladies. I'll ask Mystic meg. |
Harry, that's auspicious. 8 in Thai is baht - which also means money (Thai Baht), so that is a very lucky number - money money money money! |
PB,
I would imagine that the politics of rival weight loss drugs is hovering there.
Novo wanted security of supply to meet demand for their first to market weight loss drug which was touted to become the most lucrative prescribed drug of all time. There are other GLP1 drugs out there / nearly there now and if there is a US candidate then that will not be lost on US politicians.
We would never have made the weight loss drug (it's not what we do or have the capability / facilities to do). |
Gareth,
My Serum theme here is that they can make any vaccine they like in India much cheaper than in the UK. The WHO say R21 is so important that they will not risk it all being produced in one territory. That's my only explanation for Serum doing the 10 year bioreactor reservation deal with us and a similar deal with the Wockhardt fill / finish factory in Wales.
I can't make anything else fit but I have been wrong before. 5 weeks tonight is the cut-off for the last FTSE reshuffle of the year. Will there be a Serum announcement by then? No idea. I wouldn't even like to guess at the chances.
But (but, but, but) it takes a long time to prepare for this kind of work, then a very long time to prepare the quantity of doses they are talking about, then the QA/QC testing, then the fill / finish.
Someone eventually has to pull the lever in anticipation and it is undoubtedly government level stuff. Two tier could do with a bit of good news to distract the public from his performance so far. He could do a lot worse than this and what would it cost our foreign aid budget for him to promise GAVI UK made R21 Malaria vaccines?
We will see. I suspect the FDA review meetings and / or the myeloma CAR-T news is much more likely in the next 5 weeks, but there will of course be other stuff of which we have seen nothing to guess at. |
Tedious isn't it yet another ground hog day |
Maybe 2 plus 2 equals 5 Mr President, Sir but it's possible and if so..... |
I'm going to sit on the fence Dom.
If I understand this correctly (apply guess factor at this point) the WHO get the money from GAVI so that UNICEF can buy the vaccines.
GAVI is funded mainly by foreign aid budgets from countries like us and super wealthy foundations like Gates.
Serum have made 25m doses and it has taken them a long time, but this is aided by the shelf life / storage requirements for R21.
They say that they can scale up using their home facilities (remember that they do a lot of other vaccines besides) to 100m doses per year and then expand to 180m.
As you point out, the WHO has stated that it's such an important vaccine that it mustn't all be manufactured in one territory for security of supply. With that in mind it seems reasonable to suggest that Serum's investment in OXB and reservation / right of first refusal of the large bioreactor gets them out of the restriction whilst still benefiting from the deal.
The question being at what number of doses does the two then three territory rule for manufacture kick in.
I would make the random point here that Bill Gates has been in Downing Street today and that his foundation is a massive vaccine donor. Presumably one of the things he would want to talk to free gear about is UK HMG chipping in for malaria as it's a very big thing for him.
You would hope (and I know this is a bit of a dream) that as HMG's SAGE advisor Patrick Vallance is now Minister of State for Science in the Department for Science, he will know everything about OXB's / Serum's role in the last lot and very likely the tie-up we are talking about here.
Surely if Bill Gates is here to talk about vaccines and eradicating malaria (his 2 biggest interests) and Patrick (who knows us) is two tier's special advisor on difficult thinking, then the correct response is "Yes Bill, my government will chip in for R21 manufacture, but only if x% is made in the UK.".
As I say, a bit of a dream but you never know. |
It should have been 12 months ago Mr President. We know that WHO require manufacturers on each continent to reduce risk. However, could it be that the £50m was a worthwhile 'cover' in case of a lost argument for doing it all in India? |
I used the wrong name Phil, but I meant the closing slide of a presentation always used to be something like "Expected Catalysts" or "Potential Newsflow" (it's had many names) where the presentation ends with a pointer to what might happen over the next period or two. |
There is a Meet Us page Harry, got a full schedule |
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