I think I read somewhere that if a short is less than 0.5% of the company's shares then there's no requirement to notify (a bit like holding less than 3% - or 5% if not UK based).
So if there is something going on with 3 cups and a sponge ball then we'll likely never know what.
Back to my stuck record and really we are in the hands of Frank now, who of course has the job description of managing the company on behalf of us.
We all spotted that the coming events slide has gone the way of our pipeline page, but of course we saw that there was a slide dedicated to expected FDA approvals in this quarter. If none of those were related to OXB then why did they tell us about it?
Presumably at least one of them is, and if it becomes big news before the last reshuffle of the year then it should be super deluxe crackers this Christmas dinner. |
DC..looks like that to me too...trying to tease out some of the more "bored" traders who have a short timescale and dash from stock to stock .... |
Games being played to work through large buy orders are serving to hold the share price back. |
pb3 - No. IQG actually but delayed slightly by my holiday. |
 Appreciate all this is UKGold repeats from me, but:-
When OXB was sub 170p and therefore at its most vulnerable after some institutional forced selling, what happened apart from some shorters joining the party? Nothing.
I've mentioned before that if you add up those with c3% or more from the annual report then it's 51% and some of these are very long term holders. Those who can see the share register hint it's much more like 60% in safe long term hands.
There's likely only one eventual buyer (Novo) who already own more than 12% and have stated a policy to buy up good pharma service industries. Nothing says they have to buy it all. If that happens it will be on their timeline and at a price they are prepared to pay.
We've just had interims which were excellent but gave little away other than to say next year beats our pandemic record revenue without a penny from AZ and that the impairment charge situation due to losing Homology as a customer in the US has now ended.
Next year (I realise a yellow Reliant Robin image looms here) should be golden compared to the valley of death which OXB travelled through post pandemic and then with the US venture having a very unfortunate start. EBITDA profit and record earnings - even though they are almost certainly going to have to shell out for the last fraction of the US deal (albeit at a fraction of what that would have cost had Homology remained as a customer).
It's actually a very good story and compared to some of our former competitor peers (Bluebird) a brilliant story.
However, now is now and it's not next year yet. Blackrock (those honest businessmen with red braces) have bought c5% for something. Obviously to make money but we can only guess if their intentions are short or long term.
To my mind it all revolves now around the 22nd of next month and the last FTSE reshuffle cut off this year.
If something happens before then to get us +£2 from here and back into the 250 (surely has to be news from OXB?) then I think that springboard will prime us for a fantastic year next year.
If not the same thing will happen next year, it will just start later / take longer. |
All the creeping up over weeks undone in one quick shift down. |
You got your Darktrace already?End October, I'm told! |
Having just received the takeover proceeds from another (sad) US takeover of a UK company, why should I complain if market manipulation means I can now add some more OXB 5 or 10% cheaper than I was expecting? |
OXB is not alone.There are a number of second liners that are seeing some sharp and not readily explicable falls in price of late.OXB has,of course,been reluctant to break into new territory so might be considered vulnerable to a period of weakness but its all said with the confidence that comes with hindsight. |
The share price is being well and truly 'managed'. I have no idea why. |
ASGCT
Dr. Saar Gill discusses shift from ex-vivo to in-vivo cell modification. Join Thursday's session on Off the Shelf CAR-T Cells Using Direct In Vivo. |
inch by inch rather than yard by yard we creep along atm :) |
Things certainly look very positive to be back to north of £4 soon Jasie.
But on one hand, whilst I will be pleased to see us back at a share price in the 400s, I will also be slightly melancholic that we have simply returned to where we were in July last year when apparently one forced US seller triggered another and sent us spiralling down with dung flies like badger and luminaire cheering it on.
Today we own ABL Europe which seems to have been a brilliant deal for OXB on the basis of the Geovax contract alone, but who knows that apart from us - as OXB certainly haven't said.
We (as CGT CDMO) should run a premium to the sector average, but even on 5.5x and those revenue figures above? |
I meant to add that the dam may well be about to break |
Good evening all. I was talking to two medical professionals yesterday one of whom worked in gene therapy. In his words, we are on the precipice of a massive change in medical treatments and he also said that OXB were doing exactly the right thing at the right time ........ Well, we will see won't we!! |
Is the dam finally about to break here ?
Tuco. |
CDMOs for CGT |
Well, 6 weeks tonight and we will know if OXB made it back into the FT250 this year or not (don't worry, I'm not about to do another advent calendar).
I suspect the downside / upside possibilities would be something like this:-
Downside - OXB are unable to announce anything partner related in the next 6 weeks (either not happened yet or happened but not allowed to say) and we remain smallcap through the Christmas doldrums. For that I would expect us to end the year something similar to today / maybe a little more if the NY tips are favourable.
Upside - OXB can announce something (maybe favourite for this at the moment being a client name and contract value for the previous commercial myeloma CAR-T announcement) leading to a change of guidance (commercial manufacture and supply is of course for the life of the drug). I think correct timing there would see us back in the FT250 with the good publicity that brings, but also we would be back with a lot of institutions who could once again buy or had to buy (trackers), which is quite a different Christmas scenario.
I know which we would all prefer, but it needs something good from Frank in the next 6 weeks to swing it imho. |
Somebody pinching your nuts? |
Ooh look, a squirrel.... |
Liontrust own 7.64% of OXB but in the post-covid crash redemptions sold the same % of every holding they had.Frank's job here is to sell OXB in a market which our current leaders don't really believe in (well, for the masses anyway). |
From the SCLP thread:
inanaco10 Oct '24 - 13:52 - 13029 of 13029
its becoming ingrained ...........
One of the UK’s top asset managers has blamed fears of a tax raid in Rachel Reeves’s upcoming Budget for sparking withdrawals of £1.1bn from its funds.
Liontrust Asset Management has become the latest company to criticise the Government for knocking investor confidence by raising the prospect of significant tax changes.
The business said it had suffered net outflows of more than a billion pounds in the last three months amid growing concerns around the Oct 30 fiscal event. |
35k traded as I type takeiteasy. That and the volume yesterday suggests to me that whoever was causing the excitement Monday / Tuesday has their shares now.
Appreciate that there will be other big buyers at other times, but my mindset at the moment is that 6 weeks tomorrow is the last reshuffle date of the year. For OXB to be readmitted then I'm guessing we all agree that something has to happen between now and then to make sure that at close of play on the 22nd of November, OXB's market cap is over that threshold (which would be about £580m today). We are currently c£406m.
It could happen as OXB is currently poorly viewed / valued on about 3x sales for this year, but it very much depends upon what Frank can release before then and of course the timing of that is plainly out of his hands.
If Serum fessed up about what they want a big bioreactor for 10 years for, then I think the "right" message there could do it in days, but what are the odds?
Previous years then post results has seen a lot of activity by the analysts and of course following these last interims we have seen very little reported about that. |
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