In my view there are quite a few keen buyers here and limited supply . The buyers appear to have been limited at £3.85 recently, but at some point the dam is going to break and the shares could spike higher .
All IMO .
Tuco. |
Watched it all and was fascinating to hear the inside track. The story of luck from a national standpoint that oxb had just completed oxbox and could help, and the sheer goodwill from Oxford uni and oxb and others to kick the process off before the funding was secured. The fact that we were burned is difficult, but if the government address this with some standby funding it might be a good long term outcome alongside our commercial work.
Thanks for sharing Harry. |
I listened and agree it was most informative.... but I have no optimism that the government is listening... |
I realise almost nobody will listen to all of this (it's an hour and threequarters long), but James Miskin and the University partners testifying the the pandemic committee.
I listened to it all and found it well worth the time. A lot of very nice OXB references in there and many other bits of background information from that time.
Something I've mentioned many times here (regarding our market fall from grace being triggered by a government political decision to abruptly stop the vaccine work at least a year earlier than anyone expected) - drag the slider to 11:30 and hear it from a much better source than me. 11:45 relevant too. As I say, if you have time then I'd recommend listening to the lot. |
 Not 100% sure of your numbers there but their opening shot at the interims was this:-
Client portfolio is maturing and now includes 37 clients and 48 programmes as of September 2024 (September 2023: 24 clients and 41 programmes), representing a growth of 54% for clients and 17% for programmes year-on-year.
I'm sure it's to do with the way OXB report half year and then post period in the same release (as noted by me before - making their quarterly reporting hints a bit of a farce) but my honest opinion about the orderbook is this:-
Whilst I think all work is great - as it's all paying work for us and the partner takes the trial risk these days - I'm much (much, much) more interested in late P3 and commercial and would happily swap multiple upstream process development for a single late stage P3 any day of the week.
As we both know (re the "is it Rocket?" chats) OXB have had one late stage P3 for the last 2 years. As of the interims that is 4 and it doesn't include those going the P2b BLA route. That is brilliant. Even more brilliant is the commercial deals going back to 2 (so Novartis + 1 new mystery myeloma CAR-T).
My thoughts on that last line vs a total for everything is a bit like the Manchester City Chairman asked about his star striker setting the bathroom of a club owned house ablaze whilst launching fireworks out of the bathroom window. His words were to the effect "As far as I'm concerned as long as he keeps scoring goals for Manchester City like this, he can burn down a bathroom every week".
Priorities there being the lesson. If half those P3 trials get licenced then we will be laughing.
Meanwhile OXB are currently at the flowery cactus show
Lots of potential customers there for Seb's team. |
Harry, yes your words were not lost on me and there are many reasons for programmes to be lost. But, it isn't very reassuring to see the pipeline contract. |
Plutonian,
Please note what I wrote - never lost a customer to another vector supplier (i.e. to a competitor).
I understand that every single time a trial fails to bring the hoped results or (worse) one of our partners gets "good enough" results but can't find the funding to take it further, then that's a customer lost (or certainly at least a programme). But I'm pretty sure you knew I meant that.
The upside to this of course is that OXB's number of programmes is also equally likely to be doing better than it looks each 6 months, because there are going to be programmes (particularly at early stage) where it either doesn't work or the go / no go decision is no. We never see that in the running total growth. |
Anything to do with programmes completed or failing endpoints or trials ?Or the demise of Homology work ? |
I'm not sure the "never lost a customer" line is still true. We lost at least 3 programmes between April and September. Did someone go bust?
OXB Pipeline:
Sep 2022:25+1+2=28
Sep 2023:39+1+1=41
Apr 2024:46+3+2=51
Sep 2024:42+4+2=48 |
Morning Phil,
I know you will remember, but in 2 or 3 webcasts now Seb has made a little presentation on "why we win", which I'm guessing will be a core part of his corporate sales pitch. It obviously covers more than one single point, but a very big point (perhaps the biggest single point) is that OXB has this proven track record now of delivering what we promise to deliver - to quality and on time.
The part which was of great reassurance to me was when he told us that whilst we have had plenty of customers come to us after trying someone else first, OXB have never lost a customer to another vector supplier. Never is a pretty good record.
Drifting sideways into my observation (wild guess) of the day, I'd say that with only 3,444 shares traded at 10am on ADVFN, our rumoured big buyer is now a big holder. |
Good article from oxb on linked in. 11-fold increase in titre from their custom design of experiences work and now in GMP manufacturing. No wonder they are winning this new business. |
It does seem suspicious when a large volume of shares is traded—like the 600k shares and yet the price remains static at £3.85. This could indicate some deliberate action or unusual market dynamics. Here are a few possible explanations for what might be happening:
1. Market Maker Activity
• Market makers (or large institutional players) could be trying to keep the stock price at £3.85 for various reasons. Market makers provide liquidity and are often involved in large trades behind the scenes. They can control the price by absorbing both buying and selling pressure to keep the price stable, especially if there’s an agreement to prevent significant volatility.
2. Accumulation Without Affecting Price
• Someone could be accumulating shares at this price without wanting to trigger a price increase. By managing the trades carefully, the buyer might avoid pushing the price higher while still building a position. This tactic is common if an investor expects future news or growth but wants to buy as much as possible at a low price without alerting the broader market.
3. Order Book Manipulation
• It’s possible there are large sell orders placed around the £3.85 mark to create resistance. This can be done by traders or institutions that want to prevent the price from rising for a specific reason, such as preparing for a large short position or to complete their buying at a low level.
4. Consolidation Phase
• The stock may be going through a consolidation phase where both buyers and sellers are evenly matched, leading to a narrow trading range around £3.85. During this phase, the price stays flat despite heavy trading, as buyers and sellers balance each other out. This often happens before a breakout, either up or down, once one side takes control.
5. Pending News
• If there is major news expected soon (such as a partnership announcement or earnings release), some investors may be positioning themselves in anticipation, while others may be holding back, creating a temporary standoff. Market makers or insiders with better knowledge of the situation may try to control volatility until the news is made public.
In summary, while it may seem frustrating to see no price movement despite a high trading volume, it could be part of a larger strategy by institutional players or market makers to keep the stock price at a specific level for the time being. If there’s no major movement soon, it might be a sign that something significant is coming, or the stock is gearing up for a breakout once these constraints are lifted. |
Without any intention to be flippant Gareth, a significant RNS about anything positive at any time is never going to hurt, but the news of which Frank can pick and choose probably won't attract anybody in who doesn't already know OXB, whilst the (far more significant) news which he has to notify the market of will mostly come when our partners are good and ready. It's random.
If I understand SJ's post correctly, then if there is a current buyer for a large number of shares but only at or below a certain price, then the stockbroker firms will do what they can to earn the fees for that trade and if it keeps the price capped until the trade is worked then that is what it is going to do.
The only real plus points I see for us as small shareholders in OXB here, is that if the current situation regarding shares in safe hands vs shares for sale is currently such that the brokers have to do this to work a very large trade, then next week the situation is going to be the same but with all the shares from this very large trade moving from the available for sale pile to the safe hands pile.
If so then that's massively to our advantage for a good trend and will compound as each new large holder joins for a piece of the 2025/2026 guidance.
Put another way, an extra 50p, £1, £2 on the price isn't suddenly going to make me think "oh, go on then" and sell a few - which I suspect will be a pretty common position - so where are all the shares bid for going to come from? |
No expert or chartist but a rising share price with relative high volumes over a number of days sounds pretty positive indicator of where we are heading? A significant RNS would presumably act as a catalyst to the direction of price movement? |
I don't know the answer to either 8826 or 8827 but if it helps I can remind you both of the orderbook snapshot which you can see for free on OXB's website
Click the bar labelled "today" on the Invensis charts section and scroll to the bottom of the page. |
Hello 400p, almost |
A customer will inform his chosen broker that he’s interested in purchasing stock and wants to buy a reasonable quantity.The broker might go up on the bid to attract stock but in a thin market the last thing he wants to do is drive the price sharply higher.The customer would be anything but pleased.It looks like there is a buyer out there and the broker has managed to find some stock.The buyer might be ongoing. |
I follow your logic Mr President Sir, and I too have heard such rumour.
"at a price where the stockbrokers are having to work very hard to fill it. Hopefully when it’s filled and out of the way then we can return to a natural market price"
Might it not mean that the price is unable to rise much because there are few or no sellers. The market is then stalled until someone comes along with a buyout offer? |
As ever ADVFN trade reports are as misleading as informative but my guess is that 125,000 shares have been crossed this morning at 385p and a further 121,000 were crossed at around 382p.OXB stock is a treasured commodity. |
You must have more airmiles than Judith Chalmers Ygor ;)
Very difficult to discourage me about OXB (as you will have noticed) but as someone who openly admits to knowing next to sfa about market workings, I’m guessing that the 125k share trade and the 48k share trade early today are indications that the rumour of a big trade sat waiting is true, but that it’s at a price where the stockbrokers are having to work very hard to fill it. Hopefully when it’s filled and out of the way then we can return to a natural market price and somehow average +25p per week before the last quarterly review at the end of November.
Quite a bit about Novo over the weekend, who you already appreciate is to my mind the only realistic eventual buyer for OXB (i.e. they start from holding 12%, they have the cash to do it without blinking and have stated an aim to buy service providers in our sector).
Often useful I think to compare back to history. When Novo took 10.1% of OXB at 690p per share they paid £53.5 million for 10% of a much smaller company.
That £53.5 million allowed us to pay off our loan of the time and set the company up magnificently, but if you listened to the webcasts (appreciate you weren’t here at that time) then you would have heard OXB say afterwards that Novo’s due diligence had been something to behold (full open books and a very long decision process before signing up).
What did we have in the runup to May 2019? Well certainly no ABL in France and no US division, no AAV vector and we were still in that innocent time before almost all the world’s politicians became scientists who told us that covid in the world’s best hospitals was going to be worse than it had been on sealed “perfect experiment” quarantined cruise ships full of old people.
So Novo certainly didn’t buy in for covid, for the bigger market vector (AAV) or for the 3 territory global spread. Almost certainly they bought in for the commercial CAR-T association with the world’s first approval tied to OXB’s LentiVector. I doubt the partnership with Axovant for a Parkinson’s late stage trial had any influence on them at all other than maybe curiosity.
Come forwards 5 years and we have lived through the price built up to near 1,600p before being sold down to near 160p, but you can’t get away from the general mass insanity that today at 380p Novo’s initial shares are worth 55% of what they paid for them.
In 2019 our revenue was £64m (2018 was £66.8 million). In the year we go into in less than 3 months it will be more than double those and not lossmaking.
It makes no sense. ABL was deal of the century and their Geovax contract alone will soon pay us back. Homology is the curate’s egg in that we have a very good AAV now (42% of our new customers last year were for AAV) but it hasn’t worked out anything like the way originally planned (understatement) – as demonstrated by the minuscule final payment (end of Q1 next year) which will see us owning the whole thing.
Sooner or later the market will forgive us and we will come off the naughty step. Will it be before the end of November quarterly review? I would suggest that weighs heavily upon whether Frank can get a good announcement in by then or not. |
Well Dom you have touched on this point beforeLeave your shares to your sons and daughters and like us they can inherit years of angst and failureBut this time it is going to be different !!! |
Well Harry, I am out of the UK at the moment but have just spotted that we closed at a new high on Friday night. The general market looked as dull as ditch water to me so I think that we should all be encouraged by that. |
I'm sure they are right marwalker, but will you and I still be alive when it happens! |
Me too marwalker |
I based my erroneous decision not to sell on Novo taking a stake at a cost north of £ 10 a shareSurely Novo knew better than me ?I hope that Novo will still be right over time |
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