No expert or chartist but a rising share price with relative high volumes over a number of days sounds pretty positive indicator of where we are heading? A significant RNS would presumably act as a catalyst to the direction of price movement? |
I don't know the answer to either 8826 or 8827 but if it helps I can remind you both of the orderbook snapshot which you can see for free on OXB's website
Click the bar labelled "today" on the Invensis charts section and scroll to the bottom of the page. |
Hello 400p, almost |
A customer will inform his chosen broker that he’s interested in purchasing stock and wants to buy a reasonable quantity.The broker might go up on the bid to attract stock but in a thin market the last thing he wants to do is drive the price sharply higher.The customer would be anything but pleased.It looks like there is a buyer out there and the broker has managed to find some stock.The buyer might be ongoing. |
I follow your logic Mr President Sir, and I too have heard such rumour.
"at a price where the stockbrokers are having to work very hard to fill it. Hopefully when it’s filled and out of the way then we can return to a natural market price"
Might it not mean that the price is unable to rise much because there are few or no sellers. The market is then stalled until someone comes along with a buyout offer? |
As ever ADVFN trade reports are as misleading as informative but my guess is that 125,000 shares have been crossed this morning at 385p and a further 121,000 were crossed at around 382p.OXB stock is a treasured commodity. |
 You must have more airmiles than Judith Chalmers Ygor ;)
Very difficult to discourage me about OXB (as you will have noticed) but as someone who openly admits to knowing next to sfa about market workings, I’m guessing that the 125k share trade and the 48k share trade early today are indications that the rumour of a big trade sat waiting is true, but that it’s at a price where the stockbrokers are having to work very hard to fill it. Hopefully when it’s filled and out of the way then we can return to a natural market price and somehow average +25p per week before the last quarterly review at the end of November.
Quite a bit about Novo over the weekend, who you already appreciate is to my mind the only realistic eventual buyer for OXB (i.e. they start from holding 12%, they have the cash to do it without blinking and have stated an aim to buy service providers in our sector).
Often useful I think to compare back to history. When Novo took 10.1% of OXB at 690p per share they paid £53.5 million for 10% of a much smaller company.
That £53.5 million allowed us to pay off our loan of the time and set the company up magnificently, but if you listened to the webcasts (appreciate you weren’t here at that time) then you would have heard OXB say afterwards that Novo’s due diligence had been something to behold (full open books and a very long decision process before signing up).
What did we have in the runup to May 2019? Well certainly no ABL in France and no US division, no AAV vector and we were still in that innocent time before almost all the world’s politicians became scientists who told us that covid in the world’s best hospitals was going to be worse than it had been on sealed “perfect experiment” quarantined cruise ships full of old people.
So Novo certainly didn’t buy in for covid, for the bigger market vector (AAV) or for the 3 territory global spread. Almost certainly they bought in for the commercial CAR-T association with the world’s first approval tied to OXB’s LentiVector. I doubt the partnership with Axovant for a Parkinson’s late stage trial had any influence on them at all other than maybe curiosity.
Come forwards 5 years and we have lived through the price built up to near 1,600p before being sold down to near 160p, but you can’t get away from the general mass insanity that today at 380p Novo’s initial shares are worth 55% of what they paid for them.
In 2019 our revenue was £64m (2018 was £66.8 million). In the year we go into in less than 3 months it will be more than double those and not lossmaking.
It makes no sense. ABL was deal of the century and their Geovax contract alone will soon pay us back. Homology is the curate’s egg in that we have a very good AAV now (42% of our new customers last year were for AAV) but it hasn’t worked out anything like the way originally planned (understatement) – as demonstrated by the minuscule final payment (end of Q1 next year) which will see us owning the whole thing.
Sooner or later the market will forgive us and we will come off the naughty step. Will it be before the end of November quarterly review? I would suggest that weighs heavily upon whether Frank can get a good announcement in by then or not. |
Well Dom you have touched on this point beforeLeave your shares to your sons and daughters and like us they can inherit years of angst and failureBut this time it is going to be different !!! |
Well Harry, I am out of the UK at the moment but have just spotted that we closed at a new high on Friday night. The general market looked as dull as ditch water to me so I think that we should all be encouraged by that. |
I'm sure they are right marwalker, but will you and I still be alive when it happens! |
Me too marwalker |
I based my erroneous decision not to sell on Novo taking a stake at a cost north of £ 10 a shareSurely Novo knew better than me ?I hope that Novo will still be right over time |
deleted double post |
Yes Harry, Lloyds and NWG both very good portfolio wise(how do you remember this stuff!)
Just irks that such a lack of performance continues to be rewarded (on a company scale) as directors/board are collectively responsible for the performance of the company, and with OXB’s record, rewarding that is a bitter pill. Do you remember me posting how I was torn between hold/sell at £16. Hindsight is a wonderfull thing😢 |
Lockkeeper, You might be interested to watch the Patrick Boyle YouTube video on the history of remuneration by stock options/Elon Muck etc , if you haven't already... we ARE the little people! |
I'm not sure if this is good or bad for oxb, but we do have a deal with themHTTps://bit.ly/3N6VEVHHTTps://kyvernatx.com/press-releases/kyverna-oxford-biomedica-sign-license-and-supply-agreement-for-lentivector-platform/ |
Unfortunately Lockkeeper that's just the deal and you'll see it at any company. It irked me when our past HR goddess joined and got some similar huge award but this is the nature of the golden trough. There will be time conditions and targets to meet but it's still a very nice perk.
All anybody can ever do is play the hand they are dealt and we are significantly further down the pecking order. I seem to remember you piling into Lloyds a good while ago (apologies if I've got that wrong) and if you sat on those then that should be some nice consolation for you there. |
I've nothing new to add to what I've written many times before, but they plainly have a lot of work going on.
They are recruiting almost constantly.
They seem to have extended the lease on Yarnton.
We know France are getting a lot of work from Geovax - but only because Geovax told us that - OXB have said nothing, so we have to assume that is going to be typical now.
Frank has said words to the effect that he likes to play it cool as he prefers nice surprises. Quite how he juggles that with the market regs must be interesting as some of these will obviously affect guidance, but I guess he can simply show that it will be invoiced next year (so not affecting this year's guidance) whilst he has told us that next year will be better than 35% growth, with quite a few different numbers there all being better than 35%. |
Rather greedy in my view expecting to pick up a load at these prices when the results are declared and we have yet to have the decent post results bounce - so they jiggle around with the share price little by little to remove a few holders step by step in the hope I guess of building a position - will take while and there are only so many drips and drabs I suspect sub 4 quid - all imvho etc
Pay up properly I say :) |
Its quite feasible that there are prospective buyers frustrated by the thin market in OXB shares.Afterall,Simply Wall St are primarily drawing attention to what we all know.OXB is moving into profit and its sales ratio is significantly below that being applied to industry peers.Blackrock are fairly active traders on the margin and the fact that they have built an interest here,suggests that they are speculating that the stock price could be fairly frisky in the short to medium term.
So with just seven weeks to go to the next FTSE review,the runners and riders are amassing at the start.I wouldn’t make short odds for OXB getting into the frame but,who knows,outsiders have come through in the past.To get into the FTSE250 currently and attain that 325th spot,you’ll require a market cap of somewhare between £550 to £600m. |
The price action certainly supports that possibility Dom .
Tuco. |
Hello a " bloke in a pub type scam," |
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