I know simplywallst is auto generated non-sense at times but they do have us at worth over £10 based on future cash flows |
Increase twice in as many days. Interesting. |
Blackrock slight increase |
Field promotion to thread morale officer 1st class is in the post jezmundo. |
Agree with you on this point . Stock very well bid and my sense is very thin on the offer . Could move sharply higher at any time now .
Tuco. |
The chart is looking very good, If we can confidently break through 390, It is a fast rise (weeks) to 650 +
But with BR acquiring, A break through to 390 is a virtual non starter. Here's hoping through. |
Regarding the ongoing theme of "guess the mystery myeloma CAR-T partner", an interesting news story out yesterday:- |
Well the lord gave and then he took away with the volume, didn't he? |
 It's all a mystery to me Gareth. I seem to remember someone explaining once that if you go short then someone has to either lend shares they own or they have to be bought and held somewhere to cover the short (I honestly don't know how it works) but perhaps there is something similar with a CFD and so someone has had to take the position (in exchange for a fee) to cover the Blackrock play?
As I admit - I plainly don't know the mechanism of how these instruments are managed.
More interested with the job ad out today
Appreciate OXB are recruiting all the time these days, but we know from past presentations that downstream is more lucrative for OXB than upstream and the line there "We are currently recruiting for multiple Scientist roles at different levels within Downstream Process Development" seemed a very positive sign to me that next year (when the invoices for all this extra work come due) is going to be good. The "greater" bit in greater than 35% growth might be a lot more than OXB dare say at the moment. |
If Blackrock crossed the 5% notification threshold on 30th September but does not account for the 620K shares traded hands yesterday. Interesting times. |
I don't think they have any interest in owning OXB Dom, they more likely (imho) see the opportunity to be holding when someone else pays a bidder's premium for OXB.
Novo already own 12% of OXB.
I'm sure that Blackrock have clocked that if Novo is to buy
IM out of their 10%
Vulpes out of their 8.5%
M&G out of their 7%
Liontrust out of their 6%
Serum out of their 3%
and Mr Shah out of his 3% (which would give them c50% without troubling the market)
Then they are going to have to offer a lot more than 381p.
If Frank can light the touch paper under some of these pending late stage deals then it's happily going to have to be a lot more than a much higher starting figure too.
With RG sitting on the board for them as a Non-Exec, I wonder if Novo count as insiders for purposes of market rules? |
If they are buying only a small volume of CFDs they must be anticipating a quick buck rather than a more serious 'bet'. |
Thanks makes sense. |
BlackRock has acquired or increased its voting rights in Oxford Biomedica, now holding over 5% of the company's voting rights as of September 30, 2024. The total voting rights comprise 3.33% from direct shares and 1.68% from financial instruments, such as contracts for difference (CFDs) and securities lending. This surpasses the 5% reporting threshold, prompting the notification. |
I can't understand the form. Blackrock and or it's subsidiaries took out a CFD yesterday and reported today with less than 5% holding before and after? |
I think these forms are designed to be unclear, but Blackrock again then? |
620,005 shares traded is a very big non-announcement day for us. |
I think we all broadly agree on some things and a summary might be that:-
When we were in the FTSE250 not only were we more visible because of that, but everybody in the world had heard of the covid vaccine - and also heard when it ended.
Now we are in smallcap which is much less visible, less institutions are allowed to buy and we are back to our core work which not a lot of people understand.
We need a trigger. Personally I was hoping that Frank would name the new CAR-T contract from March during the interims presentation but plainly he can't / couldn't. When that happens it's likely to quote a big number and is likely to be before the full year results.
As Phil notes the maintained guidance for this year is 126m-134m with better than 35% growth on that next year, which will be our record all time revenue year - easily beating our pandemic year. 1st of October today and so blob on 3 months from starting that year. I think even industry players / commentators who don't do OXB's science in detail will pick up on that one soon.
I've always gone on the theory that when OXB stick something on a presentation slide then it's there for a reason - even if that reason is something they can't talk about. Appreciate others have mentioned this too, so just a reminder, but why does half of slide 7 here detail FDA approvals in the quarter we started today?
My guess would be that one of them is the CAR-T deal from March and that whilst the senior staff know what that is and how much it is worth to us (hence none of them buying in April or September) the market won't know until the FDA approve it.
If there is anything to that one then let's hope it happens before the end of November.
Meanwhile, OXB have put their proofread version of the webcast transcript online
At the end of page 2 it says "And we are very pleased to now be supporting also
late-stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of their
products.".
If that is 4 Novartis sized contracts then that would be a huge amount of money - but of course nothing is booked in and taken as a given until it's approved. Pretty good chances at late stage though. |
The attitude of the market isn't so much sceptical as behaving as if it has 'bigger fish to fry'. |
We did 50.8m revenue in H1, up from 43.1m in H1 2023 (+18%)
Our 2024 full year forecast is between 126m-134m.
So we will need to be 75.2m to 83.2m for H2. H2 2023 was 46.9m, so that's targeted growth of between 60% and 77% growth in H2, providing a growth of between 40-50% overall for the year.
I think the market is saying, prove it. |
OXB moves in mysterious ways and always has done. In its own time. In its own way. Probably when your back is turned. |
Frustrating, I just don’t think the market believes it until an April update when we report audited results, then they may want to wait until next September to prove the trend. |
Not really a 'breakout' then? |
Prime Medicine Inc. will collaborate with Bristol Myers Squibb Co. in a research collaboration and license agreement totaling $3.61 billion. The two companies plan to develop reagents for ex vivo T-cell therapies. While the programs and targets have yet to be disclosed, BMS is expanding its CAR T development, begun more than five years ago, with this deal. |
Slides and repeat of the webcast are now on OXB's website
Transcript not there yet for some reason - which I guess is them still filtering for the comedy typos in a machine generated document. |
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