I think these forms are designed to be unclear, but Blackrock again then? |
620,005 shares traded is a very big non-announcement day for us. |
 I think we all broadly agree on some things and a summary might be that:-
When we were in the FTSE250 not only were we more visible because of that, but everybody in the world had heard of the covid vaccine - and also heard when it ended.
Now we are in smallcap which is much less visible, less institutions are allowed to buy and we are back to our core work which not a lot of people understand.
We need a trigger. Personally I was hoping that Frank would name the new CAR-T contract from March during the interims presentation but plainly he can't / couldn't. When that happens it's likely to quote a big number and is likely to be before the full year results.
As Phil notes the maintained guidance for this year is 126m-134m with better than 35% growth on that next year, which will be our record all time revenue year - easily beating our pandemic year. 1st of October today and so blob on 3 months from starting that year. I think even industry players / commentators who don't do OXB's science in detail will pick up on that one soon.
I've always gone on the theory that when OXB stick something on a presentation slide then it's there for a reason - even if that reason is something they can't talk about. Appreciate others have mentioned this too, so just a reminder, but why does half of slide 7 here detail FDA approvals in the quarter we started today?
My guess would be that one of them is the CAR-T deal from March and that whilst the senior staff know what that is and how much it is worth to us (hence none of them buying in April or September) the market won't know until the FDA approve it.
If there is anything to that one then let's hope it happens before the end of November.
Meanwhile, OXB have put their proofread version of the webcast transcript online
At the end of page 2 it says "And we are very pleased to now be supporting also
late-stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of their
products.".
If that is 4 Novartis sized contracts then that would be a huge amount of money - but of course nothing is booked in and taken as a given until it's approved. Pretty good chances at late stage though. |
The attitude of the market isn't so much sceptical as behaving as if it has 'bigger fish to fry'. |
We did 50.8m revenue in H1, up from 43.1m in H1 2023 (+18%)
Our 2024 full year forecast is between 126m-134m.
So we will need to be 75.2m to 83.2m for H2. H2 2023 was 46.9m, so that's targeted growth of between 60% and 77% growth in H2, providing a growth of between 40-50% overall for the year.
I think the market is saying, prove it. |
OXB moves in mysterious ways and always has done. In its own time. In its own way. Probably when your back is turned. |
Frustrating, I just don’t think the market believes it until an April update when we report audited results, then they may want to wait until next September to prove the trend. |
Not really a 'breakout' then? |
Prime Medicine Inc. will collaborate with Bristol Myers Squibb Co. in a research collaboration and license agreement totaling $3.61 billion. The two companies plan to develop reagents for ex vivo T-cell therapies. While the programs and targets have yet to be disclosed, BMS is expanding its CAR T development, begun more than five years ago, with this deal. |
Slides and repeat of the webcast are now on OXB's website
Transcript not there yet for some reason - which I guess is them still filtering for the comedy typos in a machine generated document. |
I think that is a close at a new 12 month high (just).
If it keeps inching up like this then I won't complain, but I'm hoping that this "roadshow" which Frank, Lucy and Sophia have apparently been on this week will generate a bit more interest than that. |
Respect Harry. Now would that be the same Novo that took a slice of ONT at 1.20..?
;)
Have a great W/E all. |
Before this goes too far - let me stress it wasn't my intention to start a religious war about charting / not.
Ygor, Brucie has been in lower this year and out again at his target - probably pre-dates you so you wouldn't know.
Brucie, I should have used a trailing stop loss and anyone in my position who denies that after sitting through an 18 month slide is kidding themselves - but every day is a school day and we live and learn. I had my reasons (they were just wrong) in that I thought every level we hit must have been the bottom.
As for my average - I'm saved by the fact that I have a lot of sub 5p shares (x50 for today's price of course) which I accrued over a long period of time. I think my lowest are definitely 1.5p but I have a memory of buying a little lower - but that is a long time ago and I honestly don't know for sure.
Those are all obviously well in profit, but I have some which I bought when entranced with Serum buying 3% and assumed that something big was coming. It was (a big drop) and I think it will be a while before I can look those in the eye again.
I still think Novo will buy OXB before we hit full potential.
Novo have 8 growth investments see (in portfolio at the bottom of the page) and their boss has said he will use his weight loss drug windfall to buy up speciality service providers to the pharma industry. There is only one CDMO in that list.
If it happens I expect it to be for more per share than our 2021 high. |
I don’t have great confidence in technical analysis.Charts can be useful,afterall every picture tells a story but i question their predictive capabilities.I’;ve always considered chartists to be the astrologers of the investment world.However,lots of investors place great faith in charts and as a result technical analysis is a feature of algorithmic trading which is another reason why the influence of charts can’t be dismissed.
One of the most satisfying aspects of investment is spotting recovery situations.So much financial commentary goes towards the big cap momentum trades ie whether one should be chasing the Nvidias or Novos but a bombed out oversold stock can easily double in short order without much acclaim.OXB has done just that in the last 12 months and averaging has enabled me to get into profit.As Brucie comments,nowadays with momentum trading etc,its easy enough to join the feeding frenzy surrounding the more fashionable trades .The difficulty is knowing when to jump ship and sell.I don’t think most investors are very good at knowing when to sell,i know i’m not and when you have the added complication of capital gains tax,its not always a level playing field,other considerations interfere.Of course,you should never fall in love with a stock,it can cloud your judgement.However,we here are all major beneficiaries of Harry’s love of OXB. |
Harry S Truman27 Sep '24 - 14:02 - 8762 of 8764
0 1 0
Ygor,
I have to be careful what I type here, else I risk Brucie springing our of my wheelie bin like Kato out of the fridge, but for me charting is one of those many things which works except for when it doesn't.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I love to be referenced, particularly in context of one of my favourite films.
;)
Thing to remember about charts is that they can take you out of losing positions and conversely, get you back into winning ones - albeit with quite a lot of failed signals in between. I don't know what your average is here, Harry, and it would be rude to ask; but you do unquestionably know more than anyone else about the business, on this thread. So put those two data points together (and I'm assuming you didn't sell/much/ on the way down) you get the mismatch that charts can help to bridge.
Over many boards over many years, I have noticed the danger of following peeps who might as well have doctorates on their respective shares; Emptyend of the PHAR board might come to mind. Usually they do well on the way up; and on the way down, they know every reason why the market is wrong.
Charting is admittedly, a lazy investor's approach to crunching data; and it doesn't show value, so I don't use it for deep value situations where I can derive reassurance from dividends, for example. But with a share like OXB, or ONT where I am currently invested with 10% of the Bruciefolio, it kind of makes things a whole lot simpler.
Carry on the good work, Harry; this is not to gainsay your invaluable labours on everyone's behalf, the bb is lucky to have you. I may rejoin shortly, as indeed the chart is suggesting positive movement once more. |
25,822 bid at 380p on the share info page just now.
Presumably the dip this afternoon is someone trying to work that trade? |
Just a quick reminder that you need to be 325th biggest market cap or higher to bump someone else out of the FTSE250 at the quarterly review dates. I think that would be £570m at the moment, but it depends upon what it is at the end of November. |
Ygor,
I have to be careful what I type here, else I risk Brucie springing our of my wheelie bin like Kato out of the fridge, but for me charting is one of those many things which works except for when it doesn't.
So I'm not completely rubbishing it, and I know a lot of people stand by it, but if it was a perfect science then I think everybody would do it and there would be no market to make money in.
The way I look at it (and I think many others too) is that £15 odd had a lot of covid hype in it and £1.60 something was insanely over sold, so I know that the "real" current value for OXB is somewhere between those two.
The problem with historic comparisons though is that at £15 odd we were a British LV specialist doing some temporary pandemic AV work on the side.
Today we are French / British / American AAV, LV and AV specialist pure CDMO (plus 9 other vector types) and I don't think anyone has much idea how to value that in comparison to what we were 2 years ago.
So there is this rough rule of thumb that a CDMO company should trade on a market cap where the the sector average is 5.5x sales, but then we have OXB saying that pure CGT CDMO is very rare (maybe just us) so comparing to CDMO bashing ordinary drugs would be low.
Regardless though and for argument, £134m sales this year x 5.5 sector average = market cap of £737m.
OXB has 105,341,569 shares in issue meaning as close to £7 per share as doesn't matter and back in the FTSE250.
So why isn't it?
£9.44 next year on the same average assuming 35% |
Seems a reasonable proposition boadicea and probably explains our horrible fall from grace after OXB got dumped out of the most junior index. Like poles repel I seem to recall. Something else has happened in the last 24 hours that might give us a more general fillip. The Saudi announcement re oil price targets may be the beginning of the end for OPEC. People are convincing themselves that China will return to growth and take up the slack. I'm not convinced and if oil prices do fall it opens up opportunities for our latest bunch of inglorious politicians to slap more tax on petrol to dig themselves out of a hole and be a little less austerity-minded. That in turn may help our market. |
In current conditions an share price of 500p would see it battling with NCC for entry to the 250 index. The current step advance foreseen by Ygor should take it to ~450p (assuming a similar magnitude to the last rise from ~200p to ~325p). At this point it might be close enough to 500p for that prospect to act as a magnet to pop it over the line. That seems to be what has recently happened to NCC where the recovery from similarly depressed levels seems to have accelerated faster than purely financial progress as the '250' marker was approached. |
HarryCharts.1. I've had to perform the Heimlich Manoeuvre twice in my life in the company of very senior executives whose high-powered guests either wouldn't or couldn't chew their meat into small enough pieces. Even if successful, the aftermath is not a pretty sight! Perhaps for that reason, I've never heard the term used in connection with Charts but perhaps there is somebody on this august thread who can enlighten us further if this is not the case.2. You may recall me mentioning to you a step-like pattern that can sometimes develop on charts in these long drawn-out recovery situations. If you look at our one year chart you can now see it developing here. We look to have broken out of the recent share price trading range and all being well we could well be creating the next step. This shape is probably reflective of the slow but steady drip-feed of good news into the market against a background of above-average risk. Others have mentioned that deeper pockets may be sitting on the side lines that could well turn the trend into more of an ascending line. Nevertheless my guess is for a lift to the step until our prospects are rather easier to see. |
The thought that all the hedgie chaps with their bot machines will have to consider being long not short now with this breakout underway to add some momentum is a change that warms hy heart :) |
It does indeed look like a clear chart breakout Harry . Long overdue but now a reality .
Tuco. |
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