 It's all a mystery to me Gareth. I seem to remember someone explaining once that if you go short then someone has to either lend shares they own or they have to be bought and held somewhere to cover the short (I honestly don't know how it works) but perhaps there is something similar with a CFD and so someone has had to take the position (in exchange for a fee) to cover the Blackrock play?
As I admit - I plainly don't know the mechanism of how these instruments are managed.
More interested with the job ad out today
Appreciate OXB are recruiting all the time these days, but we know from past presentations that downstream is more lucrative for OXB than upstream and the line there "We are currently recruiting for multiple Scientist roles at different levels within Downstream Process Development" seemed a very positive sign to me that next year (when the invoices for all this extra work come due) is going to be good. The "greater" bit in greater than 35% growth might be a lot more than OXB dare say at the moment. |
If Blackrock crossed the 5% notification threshold on 30th September but does not account for the 620K shares traded hands yesterday. Interesting times. |
I don't think they have any interest in owning OXB Dom, they more likely (imho) see the opportunity to be holding when someone else pays a bidder's premium for OXB.
Novo already own 12% of OXB.
I'm sure that Blackrock have clocked that if Novo is to buy
IM out of their 10%
Vulpes out of their 8.5%
M&G out of their 7%
Liontrust out of their 6%
Serum out of their 3%
and Mr Shah out of his 3% (which would give them c50% without troubling the market)
Then they are going to have to offer a lot more than 381p.
If Frank can light the touch paper under some of these pending late stage deals then it's happily going to have to be a lot more than a much higher starting figure too.
With RG sitting on the board for them as a Non-Exec, I wonder if Novo count as insiders for purposes of market rules? |
If they are buying only a small volume of CFDs they must be anticipating a quick buck rather than a more serious 'bet'. |
Thanks makes sense. |
BlackRock has acquired or increased its voting rights in Oxford Biomedica, now holding over 5% of the company's voting rights as of September 30, 2024. The total voting rights comprise 3.33% from direct shares and 1.68% from financial instruments, such as contracts for difference (CFDs) and securities lending. This surpasses the 5% reporting threshold, prompting the notification. |
I can't understand the form. Blackrock and or it's subsidiaries took out a CFD yesterday and reported today with less than 5% holding before and after? |
I think these forms are designed to be unclear, but Blackrock again then? |
620,005 shares traded is a very big non-announcement day for us. |
I think we all broadly agree on some things and a summary might be that:-
When we were in the FTSE250 not only were we more visible because of that, but everybody in the world had heard of the covid vaccine - and also heard when it ended.
Now we are in smallcap which is much less visible, less institutions are allowed to buy and we are back to our core work which not a lot of people understand.
We need a trigger. Personally I was hoping that Frank would name the new CAR-T contract from March during the interims presentation but plainly he can't / couldn't. When that happens it's likely to quote a big number and is likely to be before the full year results.
As Phil notes the maintained guidance for this year is 126m-134m with better than 35% growth on that next year, which will be our record all time revenue year - easily beating our pandemic year. 1st of October today and so blob on 3 months from starting that year. I think even industry players / commentators who don't do OXB's science in detail will pick up on that one soon.
I've always gone on the theory that when OXB stick something on a presentation slide then it's there for a reason - even if that reason is something they can't talk about. Appreciate others have mentioned this too, so just a reminder, but why does half of slide 7 here detail FDA approvals in the quarter we started today?
My guess would be that one of them is the CAR-T deal from March and that whilst the senior staff know what that is and how much it is worth to us (hence none of them buying in April or September) the market won't know until the FDA approve it.
If there is anything to that one then let's hope it happens before the end of November.
Meanwhile, OXB have put their proofread version of the webcast transcript online
At the end of page 2 it says "And we are very pleased to now be supporting also
late-stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of their
products.".
If that is 4 Novartis sized contracts then that would be a huge amount of money - but of course nothing is booked in and taken as a given until it's approved. Pretty good chances at late stage though. |
The attitude of the market isn't so much sceptical as behaving as if it has 'bigger fish to fry'. |
We did 50.8m revenue in H1, up from 43.1m in H1 2023 (+18%)
Our 2024 full year forecast is between 126m-134m.
So we will need to be 75.2m to 83.2m for H2. H2 2023 was 46.9m, so that's targeted growth of between 60% and 77% growth in H2, providing a growth of between 40-50% overall for the year.
I think the market is saying, prove it. |
OXB moves in mysterious ways and always has done. In its own time. In its own way. Probably when your back is turned. |
Frustrating, I just don’t think the market believes it until an April update when we report audited results, then they may want to wait until next September to prove the trend. |
Not really a 'breakout' then? |
Prime Medicine Inc. will collaborate with Bristol Myers Squibb Co. in a research collaboration and license agreement totaling $3.61 billion. The two companies plan to develop reagents for ex vivo T-cell therapies. While the programs and targets have yet to be disclosed, BMS is expanding its CAR T development, begun more than five years ago, with this deal. |
Slides and repeat of the webcast are now on OXB's website
Transcript not there yet for some reason - which I guess is them still filtering for the comedy typos in a machine generated document. |
I think that is a close at a new 12 month high (just).
If it keeps inching up like this then I won't complain, but I'm hoping that this "roadshow" which Frank, Lucy and Sophia have apparently been on this week will generate a bit more interest than that. |
Respect Harry. Now would that be the same Novo that took a slice of ONT at 1.20..?
;)
Have a great W/E all. |
Before this goes too far - let me stress it wasn't my intention to start a religious war about charting / not.
Ygor, Brucie has been in lower this year and out again at his target - probably pre-dates you so you wouldn't know.
Brucie, I should have used a trailing stop loss and anyone in my position who denies that after sitting through an 18 month slide is kidding themselves - but every day is a school day and we live and learn. I had my reasons (they were just wrong) in that I thought every level we hit must have been the bottom.
As for my average - I'm saved by the fact that I have a lot of sub 5p shares (x50 for today's price of course) which I accrued over a long period of time. I think my lowest are definitely 1.5p but I have a memory of buying a little lower - but that is a long time ago and I honestly don't know for sure.
Those are all obviously well in profit, but I have some which I bought when entranced with Serum buying 3% and assumed that something big was coming. It was (a big drop) and I think it will be a while before I can look those in the eye again.
I still think Novo will buy OXB before we hit full potential.
Novo have 8 growth investments see (in portfolio at the bottom of the page) and their boss has said he will use his weight loss drug windfall to buy up speciality service providers to the pharma industry. There is only one CDMO in that list.
If it happens I expect it to be for more per share than our 2021 high. |
I don’t have great confidence in technical analysis.Charts can be useful,afterall every picture tells a story but i question their predictive capabilities.I’;ve always considered chartists to be the astrologers of the investment world.However,lots of investors place great faith in charts and as a result technical analysis is a feature of algorithmic trading which is another reason why the influence of charts can’t be dismissed.
One of the most satisfying aspects of investment is spotting recovery situations.So much financial commentary goes towards the big cap momentum trades ie whether one should be chasing the Nvidias or Novos but a bombed out oversold stock can easily double in short order without much acclaim.OXB has done just that in the last 12 months and averaging has enabled me to get into profit.As Brucie comments,nowadays with momentum trading etc,its easy enough to join the feeding frenzy surrounding the more fashionable trades .The difficulty is knowing when to jump ship and sell.I don’t think most investors are very good at knowing when to sell,i know i’m not and when you have the added complication of capital gains tax,its not always a level playing field,other considerations interfere.Of course,you should never fall in love with a stock,it can cloud your judgement.However,we here are all major beneficiaries of Harry’s love of OXB. |
Harry S Truman27 Sep '24 - 14:02 - 8762 of 8764
0 1 0
Ygor,
I have to be careful what I type here, else I risk Brucie springing our of my wheelie bin like Kato out of the fridge, but for me charting is one of those many things which works except for when it doesn't.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I love to be referenced, particularly in context of one of my favourite films.
;)
Thing to remember about charts is that they can take you out of losing positions and conversely, get you back into winning ones - albeit with quite a lot of failed signals in between. I don't know what your average is here, Harry, and it would be rude to ask; but you do unquestionably know more than anyone else about the business, on this thread. So put those two data points together (and I'm assuming you didn't sell/much/ on the way down) you get the mismatch that charts can help to bridge.
Over many boards over many years, I have noticed the danger of following peeps who might as well have doctorates on their respective shares; Emptyend of the PHAR board might come to mind. Usually they do well on the way up; and on the way down, they know every reason why the market is wrong.
Charting is admittedly, a lazy investor's approach to crunching data; and it doesn't show value, so I don't use it for deep value situations where I can derive reassurance from dividends, for example. But with a share like OXB, or ONT where I am currently invested with 10% of the Bruciefolio, it kind of makes things a whole lot simpler.
Carry on the good work, Harry; this is not to gainsay your invaluable labours on everyone's behalf, the bb is lucky to have you. I may rejoin shortly, as indeed the chart is suggesting positive movement once more. |
25,822 bid at 380p on the share info page just now.
Presumably the dip this afternoon is someone trying to work that trade? |
Just a quick reminder that you need to be 325th biggest market cap or higher to bump someone else out of the FTSE250 at the quarterly review dates. I think that would be £570m at the moment, but it depends upon what it is at the end of November. |
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