 Before this goes too far - let me stress it wasn't my intention to start a religious war about charting / not.
Ygor, Brucie has been in lower this year and out again at his target - probably pre-dates you so you wouldn't know.
Brucie, I should have used a trailing stop loss and anyone in my position who denies that after sitting through an 18 month slide is kidding themselves - but every day is a school day and we live and learn. I had my reasons (they were just wrong) in that I thought every level we hit must have been the bottom.
As for my average - I'm saved by the fact that I have a lot of sub 5p shares (x50 for today's price of course) which I accrued over a long period of time. I think my lowest are definitely 1.5p but I have a memory of buying a little lower - but that is a long time ago and I honestly don't know for sure.
Those are all obviously well in profit, but I have some which I bought when entranced with Serum buying 3% and assumed that something big was coming. It was (a big drop) and I think it will be a while before I can look those in the eye again.
I still think Novo will buy OXB before we hit full potential.
Novo have 8 growth investments see (in portfolio at the bottom of the page) and their boss has said he will use his weight loss drug windfall to buy up speciality service providers to the pharma industry. There is only one CDMO in that list.
If it happens I expect it to be for more per share than our 2021 high. |
I don’t have great confidence in technical analysis.Charts can be useful,afterall every picture tells a story but i question their predictive capabilities.I’;ve always considered chartists to be the astrologers of the investment world.However,lots of investors place great faith in charts and as a result technical analysis is a feature of algorithmic trading which is another reason why the influence of charts can’t be dismissed.
One of the most satisfying aspects of investment is spotting recovery situations.So much financial commentary goes towards the big cap momentum trades ie whether one should be chasing the Nvidias or Novos but a bombed out oversold stock can easily double in short order without much acclaim.OXB has done just that in the last 12 months and averaging has enabled me to get into profit.As Brucie comments,nowadays with momentum trading etc,its easy enough to join the feeding frenzy surrounding the more fashionable trades .The difficulty is knowing when to jump ship and sell.I don’t think most investors are very good at knowing when to sell,i know i’m not and when you have the added complication of capital gains tax,its not always a level playing field,other considerations interfere.Of course,you should never fall in love with a stock,it can cloud your judgement.However,we here are all major beneficiaries of Harry’s love of OXB. |
Harry S Truman27 Sep '24 - 14:02 - 8762 of 8764
0 1 0
Ygor,
I have to be careful what I type here, else I risk Brucie springing our of my wheelie bin like Kato out of the fridge, but for me charting is one of those many things which works except for when it doesn't.
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I love to be referenced, particularly in context of one of my favourite films.
;)
Thing to remember about charts is that they can take you out of losing positions and conversely, get you back into winning ones - albeit with quite a lot of failed signals in between. I don't know what your average is here, Harry, and it would be rude to ask; but you do unquestionably know more than anyone else about the business, on this thread. So put those two data points together (and I'm assuming you didn't sell/much/ on the way down) you get the mismatch that charts can help to bridge.
Over many boards over many years, I have noticed the danger of following peeps who might as well have doctorates on their respective shares; Emptyend of the PHAR board might come to mind. Usually they do well on the way up; and on the way down, they know every reason why the market is wrong.
Charting is admittedly, a lazy investor's approach to crunching data; and it doesn't show value, so I don't use it for deep value situations where I can derive reassurance from dividends, for example. But with a share like OXB, or ONT where I am currently invested with 10% of the Bruciefolio, it kind of makes things a whole lot simpler.
Carry on the good work, Harry; this is not to gainsay your invaluable labours on everyone's behalf, the bb is lucky to have you. I may rejoin shortly, as indeed the chart is suggesting positive movement once more. |
25,822 bid at 380p on the share info page just now.
Presumably the dip this afternoon is someone trying to work that trade? |
Just a quick reminder that you need to be 325th biggest market cap or higher to bump someone else out of the FTSE250 at the quarterly review dates. I think that would be £570m at the moment, but it depends upon what it is at the end of November. |
Ygor,
I have to be careful what I type here, else I risk Brucie springing our of my wheelie bin like Kato out of the fridge, but for me charting is one of those many things which works except for when it doesn't.
So I'm not completely rubbishing it, and I know a lot of people stand by it, but if it was a perfect science then I think everybody would do it and there would be no market to make money in.
The way I look at it (and I think many others too) is that £15 odd had a lot of covid hype in it and £1.60 something was insanely over sold, so I know that the "real" current value for OXB is somewhere between those two.
The problem with historic comparisons though is that at £15 odd we were a British LV specialist doing some temporary pandemic AV work on the side.
Today we are French / British / American AAV, LV and AV specialist pure CDMO (plus 9 other vector types) and I don't think anyone has much idea how to value that in comparison to what we were 2 years ago.
So there is this rough rule of thumb that a CDMO company should trade on a market cap where the the sector average is 5.5x sales, but then we have OXB saying that pure CGT CDMO is very rare (maybe just us) so comparing to CDMO bashing ordinary drugs would be low.
Regardless though and for argument, £134m sales this year x 5.5 sector average = market cap of £737m.
OXB has 105,341,569 shares in issue meaning as close to £7 per share as doesn't matter and back in the FTSE250.
So why isn't it?
£9.44 next year on the same average assuming 35% |
Seems a reasonable proposition boadicea and probably explains our horrible fall from grace after OXB got dumped out of the most junior index. Like poles repel I seem to recall. Something else has happened in the last 24 hours that might give us a more general fillip. The Saudi announcement re oil price targets may be the beginning of the end for OPEC. People are convincing themselves that China will return to growth and take up the slack. I'm not convinced and if oil prices do fall it opens up opportunities for our latest bunch of inglorious politicians to slap more tax on petrol to dig themselves out of a hole and be a little less austerity-minded. That in turn may help our market. |
In current conditions an share price of 500p would see it battling with NCC for entry to the 250 index. The current step advance foreseen by Ygor should take it to ~450p (assuming a similar magnitude to the last rise from ~200p to ~325p). At this point it might be close enough to 500p for that prospect to act as a magnet to pop it over the line. That seems to be what has recently happened to NCC where the recovery from similarly depressed levels seems to have accelerated faster than purely financial progress as the '250' marker was approached. |
HarryCharts.1. I've had to perform the Heimlich Manoeuvre twice in my life in the company of very senior executives whose high-powered guests either wouldn't or couldn't chew their meat into small enough pieces. Even if successful, the aftermath is not a pretty sight! Perhaps for that reason, I've never heard the term used in connection with Charts but perhaps there is somebody on this august thread who can enlighten us further if this is not the case.2. You may recall me mentioning to you a step-like pattern that can sometimes develop on charts in these long drawn-out recovery situations. If you look at our one year chart you can now see it developing here. We look to have broken out of the recent share price trading range and all being well we could well be creating the next step. This shape is probably reflective of the slow but steady drip-feed of good news into the market against a background of above-average risk. Others have mentioned that deeper pockets may be sitting on the side lines that could well turn the trend into more of an ascending line. Nevertheless my guess is for a lift to the step until our prospects are rather easier to see. |
The thought that all the hedgie chaps with their bot machines will have to consider being long not short now with this breakout underway to add some momentum is a change that warms hy heart :) |
It does indeed look like a clear chart breakout Harry . Long overdue but now a reality .
Tuco. |
I will be available later in the day to curse the price (very reasonable rates) but so far this morning that is straight through the 12 month high with some gusto (which I believe the chartists term the Heimlich manoeuvre).
Sooner or later it had to happen. |
I've seen this before both on OXB and other shares after good results. Takes a little while to get going but it will as more and more people with much deeper pockets than us come around to the reality that OXB is now 3 months away from starting the year where it goes back into profit.
I was really hoping that Frank's big reveal at the interims was going to be the detail of the CAR-T deal from March. If he could say then I'm sure he would have, which would have been a brilliant springboard for us, but he didn't / couldn't and that's that.
We have the maintained guidance of £126 million to £134 million in revenue for this year (depends on what they can complete and invoice for before the year end of course) but if it's £134m then better than 35% on that would be better than £181m next year.
Our best ever revenue year (including covid exceptional work with 3 x 1,000 litre bioreactors working 24/7) was £142.8m in 2021.
£181m next year and earlier this year our shares hit 1/10th of their 2021 high?
Even if we are in sleepy smallcap then people will eventually wake up to this. We've already seen the start with the motley fool and such. |
They certainly want plenty of stock here atm - perhaps we are at a breaoout point in the chart :) nai/dyor etc |
Thanks Phil,
Apologies boadicea, I've been sat in a darkened room with a tea towel over my head formulating the correct entry for the £108m in tomorrow's Euromillions superdraw. Sounds straightforward enough I know, but surprisingly difficult to rule out the 139,838,159 incorrect possibilities.
OXB rulebooks are online
Page 5 "Executive Directors are required to build and maintain a minimum level of shareholding equal to their normal annual LTIP opportunity". And so on.
Required seems pretty clear to me - QED, Frank and Lucy as the new kids on the block need to be buying when they can.
But I've been down this road before (when I pointed similar out before the ABL deal etc.) and it just gets you the long walk of shame, but fortunately Gareth has stepped forward (wrapped in the battle flag of the red dragon) as new champion of the cause. I will now support loyally by shouting brave things from somewhere at the back. |
From the 2023 Annual Report:
Non-Executive Directors – simplification and competitive fees
Under the new Policy, a proportion of the fees may be subject to a requirement that the after-tax amount will be applied in the
acquisition of shares at market value which must be retained for a specified period. In line with the UK Corporate Governance
Code, the Chair and Non-Executive Directors do not participate in any of the Group's incentive plans and do not receive any
incentive awards geared to the share price or corporate performance.
Pg 93 - Annual Report 2023
Shareholding of Executive Directors as at 31 December 2023
This chart illustrates the value of shares held by the Executive Directors as at 31 December 2023 (based on the year end share price
of £2.20) against the share ownership guidelines of 200% of salary for the CEO and 175% of salary for the CFO. Dr. Frank Mathias
joined the Company in March 2023 and therefore will build up his holding over time. In September 2023, he acquired 20,000
shares. Stuart Paynter’s shareholding as a number of shares has increased by c. 155% over the last three years (from 78,604 shares
to 200,409 shares).
Chart with key
Dr Frank Mathis 7% of 200%
Stuart Paynter 126% of 175%
Progress towards holding requirement
Balance of holding requirement |
Is it a contractual obligation or merely an understanding/expectation?
If it's in their contract, insider knowledge would surely be irrelevant, they are merely fulfilling an obligation and have no choice - unless there is a clause in the contract which varies the obligation in the event of undisclosed insider information. In that case it virtually amounts to proof that such information exists. QED! |
Quite a journey H, remember Tmunity and Bluebird?
“Kite has demonstrated an ability to globally scale cell therapy and address the unique challenges and opportunities that cell therapy represents, which are quite different in material ways than traditional pharmaceutical or biotech approaches,” said Tmunity Founder Carl June, MD |
Gareth,
As I discovered long ago, whilst pointing out that none of the insiders buying during one of their two normal open periods of the year is unusual (and likely suggests they can't because they know something market sensitive), it also comes with the free gift of being reminded of it for the next six months with a question of where that thing is. So top marks for taking that one on.
Lucy and Frank are actually contractually obligated to buy a certain level of shares personally when they are able / allowed to do so. I think it's very unlikely that both of them are skint, so I would say not allowed. |
I guess you read the "Competing interests" paragraph of that Marcus? IMHO it's well deserved but Carl (and others) must be very wealthy by now. |
incorporating IL-4 into the manufacturing process or by priming manufactured CAR T products with IL-4 before infusion
Analysis of ligand–receptor interactions revealed that type 2 cells regulate a dysfunctional subset to maintain whole-population homeostasis, and the addition of IL-4 during antigen-specific activation alleviates CAR T cell dysfunction while enhancing fitness at both transcriptomic and epigenomic levels. Serial proteomic profiling of sera after treatment revealed a higher level of circulating type 2 cytokines in 5-year or 8-year relapse-free responders. In a leukaemic mouse model, type 2high CAR T cell products demonstrated superior expansion and antitumour activity, |
One slight anomaly that remains following OXB's Summer re-positioning as a global CDMO player, why have there been no RNS director buys. It is possible that there is imminent news that puts them in a closed period but there have been no buys all Summer and we have had trading updates and financial results released on Monday. There is no obligation for directors to buy shares in their own company but it is regarded as a sign of confidence and is often share price positive. Time will reveal all no doubt. |
Panmure Liberum: OXB transformation continues
Interim results from OXB (OXB), the recently renamed Oxford BioMedica, prove it is continuing its transformation, says Panmure Liberum.
Analyst Julie Simmonds retained her ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 505p on the stock, which added 0.8% to 360p on Monday.
The interim results are in line with guidance maintained, and Simmonds said that she does not expect any major change to consensus.
‘The update indicates a measured improvement in number of clients and active programmes, with an encouraging increase in late-stage and commercial programmes,’ she said.
‘These are necessary for the company to meet its mid-term growth targets. Visibility is getting better, with 80% of second-half revenue covered and clarity on 2025… A solid performance as the company continues its transformation. |
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