After the FY results he said buy up to 300p |
what was his target before - do you know |
Oxford Biomedica (OXB:LN) (OXBDF) Price Target Raised to GBP4.20 at Stifel
September 23, 2024 5:15 AM EDT
Stifel analyst James Orsborne raised (you have to pay for the rest).
"Pre-Covid the Oxford University spin-out was ticking along on the AIM market" (and now focuses on AAV). What can you say? |
1pm
A live webcast of the presentation will be available via this link |
I looked all through for $63m or something which looks like it in GBP but found nothing. I'm hoping it's just me who doesn't understand what it means rather than a mistake in an RNS which should have been checked by everybody. |
If those numbers are correct then gross cash would not be 81m at 30th June |
 I thought the headline results good (but as noted by everybody else before today - in line with what they told us they would be 6 weeks ago).
PI interest this morning is almost none - but it was the same in the runup to the results, so no surprise there.
Very pleased to read in the small print that the impairment is now gone as Boston is paying its way.
I liked the 4x preparing for BLA (for those who don't know, the alternative route to licence for a "living" drug, rather than the big P3 trial route). Some good odds there as you can't submit without good data / having pre-qualified and such - but there will be some time with that as trials and reviews go at their own speed (except during covid). Potential there for 4x Kymriah added to our earnings though.
I don't understand (I know there's a lot of things in this category) how Frank can expect to keep a commercial manufacturing deal secret (note 2 commercial deals in the KPI table). We know it's CAR-T for multiple myeloma. Why they aren't saying who and what it's worth is a bit of a mystery unless that is revealed in the presentation at 1pm.
I wasn't pleased to read this:-
"On 26 June 2024, the Group acquired an additional 10% interest in OXB US from Q32 Bio (which had acquired Homology in March 2024) for $63 million, increasing its ownership from 80% to 90%, with Q32 Bio holding the remaining 10%. The carrying amount of OXB US NCI's net assets in the Group’s consolidated financial statements on the date of the increase in ownership was (£0.1 million).".
If that says what I think it says then that to me explains why our much liked Stuart is no longer with us.
I must be reading wrong as the put option isn't due until the end of Q1 next year and so why would they pay so much, so early and by choice?
Remember a little further on it says "Put option liability to acquire the remaining 10% of OXB US that the Group doesn’t already own has decreased from £9.3 million at 31 December 2023 to £2.8 million due to a decrease in the value at which the option is expected to be exercised and a reduction in the share ownership to 10%."
How can 10% in 2024 cost $63m and the remaining 10% in 2025 be forecast at £2.8m?
As I say I have to be misunderstanding that - but that's the way it reads to me. |
"The Group reiterates its existing near-term and medium-term financial guidance communicated to the market".More information will be gleaned at the analyst meeting plus an all important gauge of management confidence which remains very positive.Everything's building nicely.Unfortunately,the wide spread on the OXB quote first thing-often as wide as 5%- is an irritation in that it can blunt private client enthusiasm and remind that OXB remains in the small company category characterised by relatively low volume. |
Position not opposition - haha |
Commercial launch of any of these imminent CAR-T products will hyper launch the share price . Solid results very happy and likely to add my opposition hereCAGR will be well north of 35% post 2026 if all 4 of these drop before then |
We had optimistic reports (last year's interims?) that masses of orders coming in to the US asset. |
The funds will generally wait until after the presentations.
They buy over weeks and months. |
Is the market simply non—plussed by the results or awaiting this afternoons presentation? In house broker updates in the coming days? Director purchases assuming no closed period after results?? |
Was homology flagged up front DC - or is this a surprise factor for you/others |
Usually you see quite a bit of retail selling in the first hour or two after results but very little volume so far. |
I like this:
the growth in our late-stage programmes, now supporting late stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of CAR-T products.
But not this:
a decline in US revenues due to Homology ceasing clinical activities, revenues from Homology in H1 2024 were £0.2 million (H1 2023: £12.9 million). |
It will be interesting to see what they say about acquiring the additional 10% of Boston for §30m. That seems like trying to reduce uncertainty (and may actually underline the actual level of confidence management has in the overall business pipeline). Note that the remaining 10% now subject to the put option was modelled at £2.8m,so c$4m. |
Results are very rarely “rabbits from the hat” when they had previously guided. |
A good "on track" set of results with strong growth and re-inforcing of previously stated guidelines but no "rabbit from the hat" announcement. The market will take its view. |
Disappointing for those expecting fireworks but good solid growth as previously guidedRemember big deals require a timely RNS |
Morning all and a very happy equinox.
What will tomorrow bring? I was tempted to begin with the one about it being too quiet here, but a) the punchline gets you a free gulag holiday break these days under the reign of two tier free gear and b) OXB have obviously learned from last year and telegraphed ahead the maintained headline guidance 6 weeks ago - so we know there will be no "reset of the full year guidance" at these interims.
Yes they have spent more cash than they guided on extra staff (and almost certainly renewing the lease to keep the stopgap Yarnton facility for longer than they originally planned - maybe permanently?) but that's spending money this year to earn back even more next year - so not the end of the world.
It's a theory I've put forward many times before (around my running "return to the FT250" theme) but when Stuart said at both '23 results about profitability in 2025, a lot of people would be thinking "great, but that's 18 months / 12 months off and we've heard similar before - tell us again when you're nearly there".
Well, tomorrow we should get to hear Lucy tell us that we are as near as doesn't matter to 3 months away from starting a profitable year which is also very likely to be a record revenue year too. If so then that makes a mockery of a £3.50 share which has been £15 on less revenue. Something will happen.
I have an ever evolving running wish list (most of you know it already) which I rehash each time we are due results. It was much different under JD because he announced pretty much everything as it happened - even if all he was allowed to say was literally "undisclosed Co worth undisclosed amount in an undisclosed indication" and results days were just for results - with occasionally some very brief presentations.
We now know Frank's style is to announce nothing unless he has to (or the client wants to) then save it all up for an occasional big day. Tomorrow should be one of those days.
Top of my wish list for tomorrow is for him to name the CAR-T deal from March and tell us how much it's going to be worth to us. If he does that and it's a Novartis sized deal then we will be back in the 250 at the next review and much more by Christmas. If he doesn't (and I'm not sure how he can keep a commercial contract secret as the manufacturers name has to go in the paper trail) then it really depends upon what Lucy says about next year as this year we pretty much know the headlines for now. Also of course, we all know shares sell on what is coming - i.e. most people are buying a share of what is expected - not what has already happened.
Some of my remaining (perhaps needs trimming) wish list is a bit old now and possibly irrelevant given the end of our in-house drug division, but the main points of previous lists were:-
1) Why AZ kept the contract open with us (just us out of 11 suppliers). If it was just contingency then fair enough and that will be gone now - if not then for what?
2) What Serum actually want the bioreactor for 10 years for. Sooner or later there surely must be something with that?
3) Our in-house CAR-T drug - OXB-302 for Acute Myeloid Leukaemia was end of development and ready to be bought. Roch told us previously that was basically for sale and anyone who wanted to enter the CAR-T market with a head start would be able to take it because we were doing all the pre-trial work but would not start the trial. It may come to nothing, but I imagine still a possibility for this year at least.
4) Our in-vivo CAR-T tech is still there for sale. Similarly the Parkinson's drug which of course has really good patient data - both years of safety data and efficacy too. My doubt with that one is that if any of the majors were interested in a brain injection then it wouldn't have gone to Axovant in the first place. These (3 & 4 here) are still possibilities, but perhaps this year is their last chance. A wildcard for partner might be Transgene who are of course an IM company and next door to one of the OXB France plants now. Anything would be better than nothing.
5) Of course a new one this year - as we have spent a lot of money creating a US LentiVector hub in Boston - I would like to hear / see something reassuring about that.
6) Another new one - is there anything with ArcticZymes (vector purification) where Frank is now Chairman? Possibly a partnership or something a little closer?
It should be a very positive presentation.
We know from GeoVax that OXB France have scaled up for their vaccine aims, which alone should keep them going nicely for a while, but there should be much more going on as Seb (and others, if you remember from the ABL presentation) told us that simply being there opened a door to a market which wasn't there for us before. I realise the lunacy of that as they are still selling a British vector with British patents / knowhow and an American vector with the same, but if this pleases politicians then happy days for us.
We know from the FY results in April that Boston was 42% of our new work last year with AAV. If they can even do an encouraging fraction of that with LV then next year is going to be great. Remember a short contract for us is a year and we invoice on delivery of the vectors. |
Well Gareth got his blue end to the day and with quite some volume.
I like the new website, which as we know is the 2nd new one of Frank's reign. The first one had quite a few non working links and glitches so I'm guessing someone else got given the job.
I see you've decided against standing for the Lib Dems again Dom ;)
On the secret level 2 page someone has 36,000 sat there waiting to be taken at 376p on Monday Morning.
Usual caveats aside here, I would be hanging on for a lot more than that - though I accept that a profit is a profit. |
New branding
New website
Gender Diverse board
Gender diverse management team
Why not just get on with making product and getting the share price where it should be? |
New website design: |
Many thanks from all of us on the thread for your time and effort Mr President Sir. You make this the best informed thread on the platform. |
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