 I thought the headline results good (but as noted by everybody else before today - in line with what they told us they would be 6 weeks ago).
PI interest this morning is almost none - but it was the same in the runup to the results, so no surprise there.
Very pleased to read in the small print that the impairment is now gone as Boston is paying its way.
I liked the 4x preparing for BLA (for those who don't know, the alternative route to licence for a "living" drug, rather than the big P3 trial route). Some good odds there as you can't submit without good data / having pre-qualified and such - but there will be some time with that as trials and reviews go at their own speed (except during covid). Potential there for 4x Kymriah added to our earnings though.
I don't understand (I know there's a lot of things in this category) how Frank can expect to keep a commercial manufacturing deal secret (note 2 commercial deals in the KPI table). We know it's CAR-T for multiple myeloma. Why they aren't saying who and what it's worth is a bit of a mystery unless that is revealed in the presentation at 1pm.
I wasn't pleased to read this:-
"On 26 June 2024, the Group acquired an additional 10% interest in OXB US from Q32 Bio (which had acquired Homology in March 2024) for $63 million, increasing its ownership from 80% to 90%, with Q32 Bio holding the remaining 10%. The carrying amount of OXB US NCI's net assets in the Group’s consolidated financial statements on the date of the increase in ownership was (£0.1 million).".
If that says what I think it says then that to me explains why our much liked Stuart is no longer with us.
I must be reading wrong as the put option isn't due until the end of Q1 next year and so why would they pay so much, so early and by choice?
Remember a little further on it says "Put option liability to acquire the remaining 10% of OXB US that the Group doesn’t already own has decreased from £9.3 million at 31 December 2023 to £2.8 million due to a decrease in the value at which the option is expected to be exercised and a reduction in the share ownership to 10%."
How can 10% in 2024 cost $63m and the remaining 10% in 2025 be forecast at £2.8m?
As I say I have to be misunderstanding that - but that's the way it reads to me. |
"The Group reiterates its existing near-term and medium-term financial guidance communicated to the market".More information will be gleaned at the analyst meeting plus an all important gauge of management confidence which remains very positive.Everything's building nicely.Unfortunately,the wide spread on the OXB quote first thing-often as wide as 5%- is an irritation in that it can blunt private client enthusiasm and remind that OXB remains in the small company category characterised by relatively low volume. |
Position not opposition - haha |
Commercial launch of any of these imminent CAR-T products will hyper launch the share price . Solid results very happy and likely to add my opposition hereCAGR will be well north of 35% post 2026 if all 4 of these drop before then |
We had optimistic reports (last year's interims?) that masses of orders coming in to the US asset. |
The funds will generally wait until after the presentations.
They buy over weeks and months. |
Is the market simply non—plussed by the results or awaiting this afternoons presentation? In house broker updates in the coming days? Director purchases assuming no closed period after results?? |
Was homology flagged up front DC - or is this a surprise factor for you/others |
Usually you see quite a bit of retail selling in the first hour or two after results but very little volume so far. |
I like this:
the growth in our late-stage programmes, now supporting late stage activities for four clients preparing for commercial launch of CAR-T products.
But not this:
a decline in US revenues due to Homology ceasing clinical activities, revenues from Homology in H1 2024 were £0.2 million (H1 2023: £12.9 million). |
It will be interesting to see what they say about acquiring the additional 10% of Boston for §30m. That seems like trying to reduce uncertainty (and may actually underline the actual level of confidence management has in the overall business pipeline). Note that the remaining 10% now subject to the put option was modelled at £2.8m,so c$4m. |
Results are very rarely “rabbits from the hat” when they had previously guided. |
A good "on track" set of results with strong growth and re-inforcing of previously stated guidelines but no "rabbit from the hat" announcement. The market will take its view. |
Disappointing for those expecting fireworks but good solid growth as previously guidedRemember big deals require a timely RNS |
Morning all and a very happy equinox.
What will tomorrow bring? I was tempted to begin with the one about it being too quiet here, but a) the punchline gets you a free gulag holiday break these days under the reign of two tier free gear and b) OXB have obviously learned from last year and telegraphed ahead the maintained headline guidance 6 weeks ago - so we know there will be no "reset of the full year guidance" at these interims.
Yes they have spent more cash than they guided on extra staff (and almost certainly renewing the lease to keep the stopgap Yarnton facility for longer than they originally planned - maybe permanently?) but that's spending money this year to earn back even more next year - so not the end of the world.
It's a theory I've put forward many times before (around my running "return to the FT250" theme) but when Stuart said at both '23 results about profitability in 2025, a lot of people would be thinking "great, but that's 18 months / 12 months off and we've heard similar before - tell us again when you're nearly there".
Well, tomorrow we should get to hear Lucy tell us that we are as near as doesn't matter to 3 months away from starting a profitable year which is also very likely to be a record revenue year too. If so then that makes a mockery of a £3.50 share which has been £15 on less revenue. Something will happen.
I have an ever evolving running wish list (most of you know it already) which I rehash each time we are due results. It was much different under JD because he announced pretty much everything as it happened - even if all he was allowed to say was literally "undisclosed Co worth undisclosed amount in an undisclosed indication" and results days were just for results - with occasionally some very brief presentations.
We now know Frank's style is to announce nothing unless he has to (or the client wants to) then save it all up for an occasional big day. Tomorrow should be one of those days.
Top of my wish list for tomorrow is for him to name the CAR-T deal from March and tell us how much it's going to be worth to us. If he does that and it's a Novartis sized deal then we will be back in the 250 at the next review and much more by Christmas. If he doesn't (and I'm not sure how he can keep a commercial contract secret as the manufacturers name has to go in the paper trail) then it really depends upon what Lucy says about next year as this year we pretty much know the headlines for now. Also of course, we all know shares sell on what is coming - i.e. most people are buying a share of what is expected - not what has already happened.
Some of my remaining (perhaps needs trimming) wish list is a bit old now and possibly irrelevant given the end of our in-house drug division, but the main points of previous lists were:-
1) Why AZ kept the contract open with us (just us out of 11 suppliers). If it was just contingency then fair enough and that will be gone now - if not then for what?
2) What Serum actually want the bioreactor for 10 years for. Sooner or later there surely must be something with that?
3) Our in-house CAR-T drug - OXB-302 for Acute Myeloid Leukaemia was end of development and ready to be bought. Roch told us previously that was basically for sale and anyone who wanted to enter the CAR-T market with a head start would be able to take it because we were doing all the pre-trial work but would not start the trial. It may come to nothing, but I imagine still a possibility for this year at least.
4) Our in-vivo CAR-T tech is still there for sale. Similarly the Parkinson's drug which of course has really good patient data - both years of safety data and efficacy too. My doubt with that one is that if any of the majors were interested in a brain injection then it wouldn't have gone to Axovant in the first place. These (3 & 4 here) are still possibilities, but perhaps this year is their last chance. A wildcard for partner might be Transgene who are of course an IM company and next door to one of the OXB France plants now. Anything would be better than nothing.
5) Of course a new one this year - as we have spent a lot of money creating a US LentiVector hub in Boston - I would like to hear / see something reassuring about that.
6) Another new one - is there anything with ArcticZymes (vector purification) where Frank is now Chairman? Possibly a partnership or something a little closer?
It should be a very positive presentation.
We know from GeoVax that OXB France have scaled up for their vaccine aims, which alone should keep them going nicely for a while, but there should be much more going on as Seb (and others, if you remember from the ABL presentation) told us that simply being there opened a door to a market which wasn't there for us before. I realise the lunacy of that as they are still selling a British vector with British patents / knowhow and an American vector with the same, but if this pleases politicians then happy days for us.
We know from the FY results in April that Boston was 42% of our new work last year with AAV. If they can even do an encouraging fraction of that with LV then next year is going to be great. Remember a short contract for us is a year and we invoice on delivery of the vectors. |
Well Gareth got his blue end to the day and with quite some volume.
I like the new website, which as we know is the 2nd new one of Frank's reign. The first one had quite a few non working links and glitches so I'm guessing someone else got given the job.
I see you've decided against standing for the Lib Dems again Dom ;)
On the secret level 2 page someone has 36,000 sat there waiting to be taken at 376p on Monday Morning.
Usual caveats aside here, I would be hanging on for a lot more than that - though I accept that a profit is a profit. |
New branding
New website
Gender Diverse board
Gender diverse management team
Why not just get on with making product and getting the share price where it should be? |
New website design: |
Many thanks from all of us on the thread for your time and effort Mr President Sir. You make this the best informed thread on the platform. |
Well, here we finally are (drumroll please someone). I had to pick 10 from the rough 20 names which we either know from OXB or could reasonably guess at from what has been found by searching around over the years. At the interims we will be told how many partners we currently have and of course there are actually many more where for whatever reason either OXB or the customer didn't want the publicity.
I've left some very good prospects out of this list (why Serum want a huge bioreactor for 10 years to name just one), but when it comes to the number 1 spot then there can be only one (as I seem to remember an Italian nobleman with a Scottish accent saying in a film once).
Novartis. The pioneers and first to market with a CAR-T treatment. A treatment for which OXB's LentiVector process is essential and part of the regulatory approval.
Over 7,000 patients treated so far with Kymriah. A large portion of those being kids with a very nasty blood cancer who had run out of other chances - and if that doesn't tug at the old heartstrings about what our company plays an essential part in then nothing will.
Difficult to work out exactly how much our Kymriah work earns us, but somewhere between £15m and £20m of our sales last year seems reasonable.
Remember of course that whilst earnings are for the life of the drug, and that the market share can change (both ways), the next generation Kymriah (again using our LentiVector) which gets grown on directly in the patient (rather than a bioreactor) is currently in clinical trials as T-Charge.
So these are the T-Charge trials as YTB323 which I've always understood to be the better mousetrap to Kymriah (the Mk2 if you prefer).
Anybody with doubts - National Library of Medicine says "YTB323, a novel autologous CD19-directed CAR T-cell therapy expressing the same validated CAR as tisagenlecleucel, is manufactured using a next-generation platform in <2 days."
Tisagenlecleucel of course is the licenced drug name for the Kymriah marketing brand name.
Aside from that Novartis are also trialling T-Charge in BCMA (not CD19 like Kymriah) with the code name PHE885. At this point I'm guessing at our involvement and those trials are further ahead.
So whether PHE885 uses the OXB LentiVector like YTB323 is a secret, but if you look at this EMA pdf for PHE885
All the familiar words are there, it's just a different target.
And that concludes the 10 working day interims results countdown:-
10 - Sardocor (Cardiac gene therapy) post 8579
9 - Cargo Therapeutics (Bicistronic and tricistronic CARs) post 8596
8 - Oxford University labs (Lassa Fever vaccine) post 8601
7 - Boehringer Ingelheim (Cystic Fibrosis) post 8607
6 - Immatics (T-cell-redirecting cancer immunotherapies) post 8610
5 - Beam Theraputics (allogeneic CAR-T for leukemia and lymphoma) post 8621
4 - Kyverna Therapeutics (non-cancer CAR-T for autoimmune diseases) post 8630
3 - GeoVax (universal covid and monkeypox vaccine) post 8650
2 - BMS (CAR-T and TCR-T) post 8663
1 - Novartis (Approved commercial CAR-T partner / T-Charge coming) post 8668 |
A blue end to the day with some volume would be a nice sign. |
Improving CAR-T Cell Efficacy via New Manufacturing Process |
Afternoon Plutonian & thanks for your thoughts as always.
I appreciate this is out of character for me, but I actually tried to keep that one short so cut out what would have been too much to read.
I hadn't spotted the drug name in the first link, but I did see the date which is why I mention the second link as relevant as I thought we would have a piece of that.
But (I know, but, but, but) ages ago I found a few EMA links which I posted on here at the time, because I couldn't decide if BMS were applying for an alternative vector - or just an alternative vector supplier.
At the time I was obviously hoping that they were going to use LentiVector, but I appreciate that would involve confirmatory trials which we haven't seen. Later I heard Frank say multiple times that OXB are happy to manufacture (or improve) any 3rd party vector outside of what we offer ourselves. That jogged the earlier memory for me and I wondered if we might be helping / ready to help BMS with their previously (quite public) bottlenecks.
EMA made me think Europe / European manufacturer / OXB and then I remembered Stuart's specific mention of hoping to hear something from BMS soon in a number of webcasts (remembering that "soon" with a regulator can be quite a long time).
So I was vague I know, which is a bit of a cop out, but unfortunately BMS are tight lipped and I wanted to write something for our number 2 spot.
Back when OXB used to pay Edison to knock out notes, Edison had these words against BMS "Juno (BMS) collaboration on undisclosed CAR-T/TCR-T therapies; assumptions are for JCAR018 in pALL and r/r NHL".
Whenever I see something like that on a broker note, I always wonder how they could guess something like that unless they had received a massive hint?
Another broker (I saw the note at the time) thought our initial 4 were these
JCAR018 – targeting CD22, in Phase 1 development for paediatric ALL, non-
Hodgkin lymphoma)
JCAR023 – targeting CD171, In Phase 1 development for paediatric
neuroblastoma
JCAR020 – targeting MUC16, in Phase I development for ovarian cancer
JCAR024 – targeting ROR1, in Phase I development for non-small cell lung cancer,
triple-negative breast cancer.
I'm of the same opinion re guessing those.
I've tried to translate those into what succeeded / exists as a current BMS pipeline drug and I couldn't come up with anything concrete.
I'm confident we have something with BMS, and of course we have customers who are partnered with BMS. BMS also interchangeably refer to themselves as BMS or the "division of" name (like Celgene) which doesn't help either. |
Harry, yes we have many irons in the BMS fire.
You mention JCAR017 as the Juno lead product, but this is already marketed as Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel, liso-cel) and pre-dates any OXB involvement. Are you suggesting they have changed the vector to OXB LentiVector? It is not on my list of probable OXB products. |
There's plainly waning interest in the 2 week interims results countdown, but as it's only 2 working days left now then I'll just press on:-
10 - Sardocor (Cardiac gene therapy) post 8579
9 - Cargo Therapeutics (Bicistronic and tricistronic CARs) post 8596
8 - Oxford University labs (Lassa Fever vaccine) post 8601
7 - Boehringer Ingelheim (Cystic Fibrosis) post 8607
6 - Immatics (T-cell-redirecting cancer immunotherapies) post 8610
5 - Beam Theraputics (allogeneic CAR-T for leukemia and lymphoma) post 8621
4 - Kyverna Therapeutics (non-cancer CAR-T for autoimmune diseases) post 8630
3 - GeoVax (universal covid and monkeypox vaccine) post 8650
2 - BMS (CAR-T and TCR-T) post 8663
1 - ???
As mentioned 2 working days to go, and I'm sure some of you will have guessed where I'm going to end up at tomorrow by now, but today - 6th / 7th biggest pharmaceutical company in the world by prescription drug revenues - Bristol Myers Squibb.
18th March 2020 we sign a deal with Juno for them to use our LentiVector on their CAR-T / TCR-T drug pipeline, see but at this point Juno has just become a BMS company.
2022 they were pleased enough to come back for a deal on more targets
The big Juno trial is this one (320 patients) CAR-T in Lymphocytic Leukaemia (CLL) or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma (SLL).
The 6 relevant others are in this list here
So, Follicular Lymphoma, Multiple Myeloma, Multiple Sclerosis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathy and Systemic Sclerosis.
BMS are a huge company and it's difficult to track what they are up to (they don't have to spell it out for the benefit of supplier company small shareholders), but with these multiple Juno trials (2 very late stage) then the odds / statistics are in favour of getting at least one result. As we know from our happy experience with Novartis, we only need a partner to get one good drug approved and it's a payday for us for the lifetime of the drug. |
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