I'm not convinced it's a risk outside of high risk groups and those close to them Super, but I'm not a professional - just a currently bored investor - so my opinion doesn't matter.
I think the other vaccine possibilities with Oxford University, i.e. Lassa fever, MERS, Malaria via Serum, Junin and NipahB are all good candidates.
Countering that, and doubtless you will have picked up on this vibe, but since the boss of Novo said that he was going to use his weight loss drug windfall profits to buy up speciality service companies to the pharma industry, and remembering that he already holds a very large chunk of OXB, I think it's only time now until he comes for the rest. That's also my assumption of what Blackrock are circling OXB for.
If I'm correct then there's only likely malaria out of all these which we will see earning good money for OXB before OXB is a Novo company. Just my guess and all that. |
Interesting paper, but note that it's nearly 2 years old, and since then we have at least one new variant which, as I understand it, is more transmissible and more harmful. An available and usable (eg no special refrigeration/administration requirements) vaccine is critically important. |
No worries,
This is from much brighter people than me but anecdotally if you just read the stories of people who have contracted it then it almost always seems they have caught it from someone else with the same interests.
I think GeoVax's multi-strain covid vaccine for the clinically vulnerable is probably a lot more relevant to us as shareholders. |
Harry - that's what they said about HIV originally, and look where that ended up :¬( |
Thanks Harry. The W.H.O have issued a warning. I would have thought it more Dangerous than ST. |
We have yes, inherited from ABL via GeoVax
See right at the bottom of the list.
I'm cautious of giving my non-medical opinion on that particular disease as I don't want to end up in one of the new gulags for a thought crime, but whenever they describe it in the press, it always seems to me that they are going to great lengths to talk around the fact that it's basically an STD and so for the vast majority of the public you'd have to be staggeringly unlucky to catch it. |
Harry have we any interest in MPox vaccine. |
I'm sure there are still some buyers, but with the summer holidays and the notification of the half year results / presentation (5 weeks today), I think it's unlikely that there will be anything to generate more interest / buying before the results.
It all seems very positive and there's obviously a lot of recruitment going on (both here and France) which can only really mean two things:- 1) they are extremely busy, or 2) they are losing a lot of staff. To my mind Yarnton is the clue that they are very busy.
I'll keep tracking the partners / customers we know of, quite a few of which have interesting plans for H2, but all the signs are that Frank is building up to another big show for the 23rd. Should be an interesting presentation. |
so they still buy oxb |
Nice trade 150000 @3.54 1/2 few minutes ago. |
Did someone spill their coffee? |
is this one of the quietest trading volume wise in a while - do not check each day...but seems the summer holidays are having an effect for OXB? |
Yes, I like the trial too - short trials with clear results - that's what you want, particularly as it also avoids the need for control arms. It'll be interesting to see how much dose-related effect there is. A good result will hit every news agency in the world, that's for sure.
Fingers crossed! |
I've noticed before that a lot of trials we are involved with exclude women of childbearing age. I think that's pretty standard for our therapy area and if it works safely in the treated group which excludes them, then at some future date someone makes a decision on risk vs reward.
I'm quite positive about this trial because it will read out quickly and be obvious to the patients. If it works then everybody involved in the consortium will have done a really good thing and it will very justly be big news.
I still think though (and good early data on this may be one of the triggers) that at some point before this could become commercial, Novo will ask the top 5 shareholders how much they will take and that's the end of all this for us - other than perhaps a passing interest of what might have been. |
Any ideas about the exclusion of pre-menopausal women? I initially assumed it was about the passage of modified genes to offspring, but with a 15-year follow-up they'll likely have to face that issue anyway. And don't the sperm get modified too? My biology is purely (if that's the right word) practical, so not clear about the implications of these gene mods. |
No worries |
Harry - I did read it, thanks. Hence my comment. |
 Supernumerary,
If you go through that researcher link I posted (selected quote below) which I realise is a bit of a slog, it's a step change from what they had previously:-
The subsequent Phase IIb double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial reached its primary endpoint with a significant beneficial effect in FEV1 compared with placebo (Alton EWFW et al. 2015). CFGTC have also developed a lentiviral gene delivery platform based on an SIV virus (rSIV.F/HN) specifically pseudotyped with the F and HN proteins from Sendai virus (SeV) for lung gene transfer. rSIV.F/HN transduces murine and sheep lungs and human ex vivo models efficiently and leads to gene expression at least 100-fold higher than the gold-standard lipid formulation GL67A which reached its primary clinical endpoint in a Phase IIb trial. In addition, in the mouse, a single dose achieves stable gene expression for the life-time of the animal (~ 2 yr) due to integration of the vector into the genomic DNA. Importantly, unlike many other viral vectors, repeated administration of these lentiviral vectors is feasible. CFGTC has generated pharmacopeia-compliant vectors carrying a range of promoter/enhancer elements, enabling selection of a lead candidate for a first-in-man CF clinical trial.
We are now in a position to take advantage of this unique expertise in delivery, sampling and lung function measurement in a large mammalian lung that we have established. The CFGTC has also successfully obtained a Wellcome Trust Portfolio award that will exploit the synergies provided by our CF respiratory gene delivery platform technology, a critical mass of researchers with complementary extensive expertise, the use of common resources, and respiratory gene transfer expertise and apply them to range of other diseases that may benefit from the expression of a therapeutic transgene in the lung. |
Thanks Harry, good research. |
It's always been the same steeplejack and some of it isn't down to OXB.
An example back when JD was CEO would be him explaining that we were doing something for Novartis which he couldn't tell us because of contractual terms but that we could find it on the Novartis website if we looked.
I'm slightly peeved with them at the moment regarding this "industry standard KPI table" which will be updated "regularly" to keep shareholders informed.
Well "regularly" is quite obviously now twice a year at the results and they previously did that anyway. I mentioned in a previous (long) post that I don't see how they can do any kind of meaningful quarterly reporting when they are in the habit of reporting twice a year with two lots of data at the same time (i.e. to the reporting period end and then post-period up to the presentation date).
I'm not complaining about them doing that as I appreciate it, but they essentially steal their own thunder for that later "quarterly" update - which becomes a bit of a non-event as we all know what's coming.
I guess they will probably mention CF at the interims, but they have never mentioned the trials starting with Geovax in America, which is potentially just as big.
They do seem to be very, very busy at the moment - as testified by the job ads in 3 territories - and in the recent raft of ads for the UK they were advertising for Yarnton, so the lease must have been extended there out of capacity need.
Essentially a very good story, but you have to look to find it. |
Harry - thanks, most interesting. Two more links for those who are interested:
A previous trial. Not a great success, as there seem to have been quite a few side-effects, hence presumably the change in vector.
A more readable version of the new trial spec:
hxxps://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/get-involved/clinical-trials/trialstracker/tt014335#centres
I'm not sure why they're not accepting 'women of child-bearing potential ... even when on contraception', which seems a pity. 4 UK centres, recruitment starting next month :¬) |
Its difficult not to conclude that the management of this company are more concerned with getting on with the job in hand than in blowing their own trumpet which makes them very unusual in today's world. |
Harry, do hang around please and great research as ever and thank you. As you say save it all up for a massive party appeal RNS to cheery up the long standing holders here - fingers crossed.
Not how any of us would have done it if we were CEO, as you note. |
Still waiting for the interims as I feel pretty confident that Frank wants to repeat last year and basically say as little as possible until the interims where he intends to give the market a big show. Wouldn't be my choice, but I'm happy enough with him saying that H2 will be minimum 50% better than H1 for revenue and reassure that everything is as guided.
So why am I posting (apart from giving marwalker something to live for)?
Well, the long, long, long awaited Cystic Fibrosis Consortium gene therapy trial with OXB's LentiVector licenced to Boehringer Ingelheim seems to have finally fired the starting gun.
Lenticlair™ 1: A Phase 1/2 trial evaluating the safety, tolerability and efficacy of an inhaled F/HN-pseudotyped lentiviral vector for CF gene therapy in people with CF ineligible for CFTR modulators
I like the name which I think immediately links to us for anybody in the business (although anybody in the business is likely to know anyway).
It seems to be lined up for a university hospital in Holland - see
Why that would be I've no idea, but I'm guessing Boehringer's choice and perhaps a centre of excellence for this disease?
Some words from one of the researchers half way down this
Why OXB have decided not to tell us this? I've no idea. If I can find it online then it certainly isn't confidential, but all the same great news I think.
It will read out relatively quickly and if it's as effective as hoped then not only fantastic for the families affected, but OXB are going to be making an awful lot of this in the coming years too. |
We seem to have a shy buyer. Most of the action either way is after hours. |
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