 Mentioned previously, but the problem with being generous at the FY results (with post period figures / updates 4 months later) means that there wasn't an awful lot new there with which to excite the market. All the important stuff was as previously mentioned (re growth, projections and such simply reiterated).
They have told us before (a lot) that it was initially going to cost 10m Euros to turn ABL Europe into OXB Europe and that ABL were paying it, but that 10m Euro cost, even though it's paid by them, is still on our books at the end of the year.
Some cash has obviously gone somewhere. They mention staff (and we have seen the ads) but we also know from last year that the first part of turning OXB Boston from AAV into a LentiVector hub for the US cost us nearly 6m (which of course comes out of our cash). That has obviously continued and comes under the category of "it is what it is" as you have to spend money to earn money. If it eventually brings in one "good" Novartis style job there in that location, then that's the money back (and more).
Cash of £103.7m at 31 December 2023
£81 million cash as of 30 June 2024 (this includes the proceeds from a EUR 20 million (£16.9 million) investment by TSGH SAS).
Isn't that £39.6m over the first half or £1.5m per week? We of course know what that is about and we also know that they are profitmaking in H2, but the market will still look at that cash burn simply as a figure and look no further for the explanation.
I'm pretty convinced in myself now that they are keeping Yarnton beyond the lease expiry date this year. That's of course good and bad. Good that they have so much work they need to do it / bad that with the remaining part of OxBox not yet complete, we are paying a lease at Yarnton plus a load of duplicated costs which theoretically they shouldn't have needed to do. Something else under the category of "it is what it is".
They have reissued guidance and that's great and I'm at peace, but there was very little there which we either didn't know or couldn't have taken a good guess at.
We knew there was capex in France and the USA (Stuart told us) and we knew they were having to recruit (we have seen the ads). We knew they would turn to profitability in H2 but that H1 would weigh them down for the full year.
What I was hoping for was news of who the new multiple myeloma commercial CAR-T deal is with - especially as that's very likely the deal which tips us into profit for H2.
As Plutonian has pointed out, if it is a genuinely new company to OXB then it can only really be CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene autoleucel), Janssen / J&J’s drug.
Tiny chance that it is the BMS drug Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel) which they bought Celgene to get and OXB are saying Celgene is the new partner (rather than BMS who own them).
OXB almost certainly want to say (hence the clues from them) but have been told they can't. Those are the only 2 options though and either is worth a fortune to OXB. |
Agreed Gutterhead just solid organic growth only those expecting huge secret deals to be unveiled will be disappointed |
All looks positive to me.
Ambitious growth to profitability and confidently on track
I gave up short term guessing the market a long time ago. |
This feels very much in keeping with the new OXB management approach of not over promising and then delivering.
With a sceptical market after the past few years I think we can see the benefit of that.
No specific client updates, but they seem to be woven in there with the backlog and GMP reservations for 2025. Also the teaser that signing of new orders expected to accelerate in H2.
The investment in people had already been picked up on (although maybe not to the degree in the update given the cited drag on EBITDA?). This does feel like the gearing up in expectation of new orders (as has been flagged on here in terms of the potential clients driving those). |
Oxford Biomedica has made significant progress with its new commercial, multi-site, multi-vector strategy. The Company has successfully transferred its lentiviral vector capabilities to its Bedford, Massachusetts site and commenced its first lentiviral vector programme in the US. Plans are underway to enable the Company's French sites to provide similar lentiviral vector services by the end of 2024
Bit I liked the most - yes, you would have expected all this this, but strategically very reassuring to support their views on higher sales for 2025. It is one thing to promote a new strategy and another to deliver on it ... |
.....and opens down! |
all the regular contributors on holiday or simply stunned into silence :) |
Half Year Trading Update and Notice of Interim Results
- Full year 2024 revenue and medium-term financial guidance reiterated; underpinned by OXB's growing market share in the expanding cell and gene therapy market
- Contracted value of client orders in the first seven months of the year reflective of strong demand for CDMO services at approximately £80 million
- Revenue backlog stood at approximately £113 million at 31 July 2024; high level of GMP suite reservation for 2025 gives increased visibility and underpins confidence in forecasts
- With increasing demand for services, OXB to invest in talent to support future growth, therefore low double-digit Operating EBITDA loss expected in 2024; 2025 EBITDA profitability outlook maintained due to continued cost discipline and a measured approach to operational spend
Oxford, UK - 8 August 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica", "OXB" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, today provides a trading update for the first half of 2024.
Additionally, the Company announces that it will report its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 on Monday 23 September 2024.
Strong trading for H1 2024 and reconfirmed financial guidance
OXB has continued to see strong momentum in 2024 with revenues for the first half expected to be approximately £50 million. As previously communicated, revenues are expected to be second-half weighted, with contracted client orders providing a high degree of visibility. The Company reiterates revenue guidance for the full year within the £126 million to £134 million range.
The first half of 2024 is expected to result in a negative Operating EBITDA with a positive Operating EBITDA expected in the second half, due to the effectiveness of the Company's strategic initiatives, including streamlining of operations and expected strong revenue growth in the second half. With an increase in late-stage client activity expected in 2025, OXB will invest in building its technical and operational workforce to support this demand.
With this investment in talent to support revenue growth, the Company expects a low double-digit Operating EBITDA loss for the full year 2024. As communicated at the full year results, 2024 Operating EBITDA includes a mid to high single digit loss from the recently acquired ABL Europe business (renamed "Oxford Biomedica (France)"), which was fully funded by cash received from Institut Mérieux prior to completion of the acquisition.
OXB reiterates its medium-term financial guidance of a three-year revenue CAGR in excess of 35% for 2023-2026, to be profitable on an Operating EBITDA level in 2025, with Operating EBITDA margins in excess of 20% by the end of 2026.
OXB's cash position remains strong with £81 million cash as of 30 June 2024. This includes the proceeds from a EUR 20 million (£16.9 million) investment by TSGH SAS, a subsidiary of Institut Mérieux SA, following the acquisition of Oxford Biomedica (France).
Strong demand for CDMO services
Demand for OXB's CDMO services has remained strong across all key viral vector types. The contracted value of client orders signed during 2024 was approximately £80 million as at 31 July 2024, in line with the Company's expectations. Based on current business development activities and OXB's growing market share, the cadence of signing orders is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Revenue backlog[1] (including France) stood at approximately £113 million at 31 July 2024, compared to £104 million at 31 March 2024.
GMP suite reservation for 2025 has been high, further bolstering confidence in future revenue delivery. Clients transitioning from early stage manufacturing to late stage and commercial activities have moved from a batch reservation model to a binding forecast model, providing increased revenue visibility.
Oxford Biomedica has made significant progress with its new commercial, multi-site, multi-vector strategy. The Company has successfully transferred its lentiviral vector capabilities to its Bedford, Massachusetts site and commenced its first lentiviral vector programme in the US. Plans are underway to enable the Company's French sites to provide similar lentiviral vector services by the end of 2024.
Dr. Frank Mathias, Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Biomedica, commented: "Oxford Biomedica has seen continued strong momentum in 2024, reinforcing our position as a world-leading cell and gene therapy CDMO. Our multi-site, multi-vector strategy is gaining traction, demonstrated by our strong revenue backlog and growing order book. These strong KPIs and high GMP suite reservation for 2025 provide us with confidence in our growth trajectory and our ability to capitalise on the growing opportunities in the cell and gene therapy market."
Notice of Interim Results
OXB expects to report its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 on Monday 23 September 2024. A briefing for investors and analysts will take place at 13:00 BST / 08:00 ET at One Moorgate Place, London, EC2R 6EA. |
Considering it rained on St Swithins day I think we're holding on pretty well in Blighty. Am currently on hols in Aldeburgh looking to see if anybody is showing the film The Magnificent Seven. Want to make sure there isn't something about investment in the film that I missed first time around. On the question of gin I recommend a visit to the Shakespeare gin school just outside of Stratford. Hands on soup to nuts experience of producing gin and drinking loads of other people's!I admit it, I do have Berkshire Hathaway as well as OXB in my portfolio. What a strange animal. Never pays dividends and has truly unimaginable amounts of cash in its balance sheet. Just waiting for the next surge in the share price driven by share buybacks after the recent sales of Apple. Will it outperformOXB this year. Not in my portfolio! |
Don`t get too excited. Starmer`s Stasis will be stealing lots of profits from us soon enough.
On the plus side at least I have been informed by Keir that I am far right which is always good to know. |
It is soooo nice to be recognised.
As a reward, you can have the RNS tomorrow pharmaboy3. |
Don't be modest PB, and now you have hit the big time on the world's No1 social media platform, I am here to offer my services as theatrical agent to the stars for a very reasonable 50% of everything + expenses. Think of the deal Colonel Parker had with Elvis - that type of thing ;)
Hope the weather in Crete is better than the Blighty high summer. I saw people with coats on today, which is apparently down to us being cursed by a bitter Swedish midget (scientifically proven). Still, Ed's going to fix the weather for us...
8th of the 8th tomorrow. Maybe this is the date OXB have been waiting for to dust off the old RNS typewriter? |
Hi HMore to do with the mention of G and T,me thinks.Still in Crete and still drinking G and Ts.Back to the Currie cup soon. |
PB,
You are famous! Mentioned in dispatches here
(I still don't think that's anything to do with ArcticZymes btw) |
He is a star in a reasonably priced Car (T). |
Carl June is one of those people who comes along, maybe once in a generation if you are lucky, and ends up a part of history for all the right reasons.
Maybe a bit like Feynman, it's not just the very big brain with the rarer ability to also remain "normal" to other people, but a combination of that, some opportunity of course and perhaps most importantly the drive to slog on with something which takes a lifetime of trying and might not ever yield a result. Happily it did. |
Bruce is on the Scientific Advisory Board of Oxford Biomedica
Maybe more interesting from 11 mins. Manufacturing is talked about.
Solid tumour is x10 the blood cancer market for Car T
Autoimmune is x10 the market for blood. |
I'm going to say that down 2.12% today is a "not bad considering / could definitely have been worse" day.
I'm also still of a mind that our next news is odds on to include details of the commercial CAR-T deal announced back in March (which came without client detail or any financials).
That's potentially a very big thing for us (and will be with us for a long time) so let's hope that if it does come soon it doesn't get lost in a bigger market situation. |
I suspect Mr Buffet publicly moving some pretty large shareholdings into cash hasn't helped much either.
Unfortunately this is one of the many things under the heading "what can you do?". You can sell and perhaps avoid a fall, but then also risk missing out on any rises which may happen for various reasons.
If the company is sound then over the long term simply holding on will usually see you right.
There is of course Sod's 3rd law here (aka the curse of OXB) which states that if if possible, any long awaited pivotal news will be released on a day when the market goes into meltdown - meaning nobody notices.
I suppose they have the interims for a recap if nothing else. |
Indeed.World markets are in retreat and macro considerations predominate over stock specifics.OXB should hold up ‘relatively217; well in such a climate but don’t expect to make money!Reassuringly,OXB is moving towards profitability,has underperformed and has a premium shareholder list.
PS The futures are pointing to a sharply lower opening on Wall Street with some NASDAQ constituents preopen trading down 10%.The scary thing about markets nowadays is the scale of leverage.The selling triggers margin calls ,which in turn triggers selling,that results in a tsunami of selling.I was working in a US investment bank in 1987.Post Black Monday,we were advised by one senior chareacter in New York,that the selling that day was such that the computers had virtually taken control and that if they hadn’t of closed the market at 4PM,technically equity markets could have traded down to zero.Of course,that was near 40 years ago……things are much more precarious now!
The VIX is at its highest level since 2022. |
90k volume in the first hour and at one point 10% down?
At first glance it would be easy to think that perhaps the market isn't expecting good news, but this morning my monitor list is basically red, so I'm assuming a lot more to do with America? |
Demand for lentiviral vectors will continue to outstrip supply until the industry has access to more efficient, purpose-built manufacturing and bioprocessing technologies. |
Thanks again Josef.
I had a read of the ArcticZymes website the other night and it looks very good to me (an amateur) but there are a lot of good companies out there and we can't buy shares in them all.
OXB are committed to continuous improvement with their vectors (essential to keep / gain market share) and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if (for example) our 5th generation LentiVector will include ArcticZymes tech.
For Frank to become Chairman there must be something there which the technical people within OXB have already tried with our vectors and liked the result.
Will they tell us? I would guess so and maybe as soon as the interims. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Frank becoming chairman of such a (relatively) small company was part of a deal which we don't know about yet.
I've gone on about this before and taken a little flak for it, but I'm convinced Frank has big plans for OXB.
Why? Because he's 60+ and was happy to leave a great position with Rentschler Biopharma, to take a role in another country (appreciate he likely works remotely some of the time).
There's something at OXB which wasn't at RB and it brought him to us when he could have easily run to retirement at RB.
Similarly, Seb was VP of CDMO at Merck.
There is something at OXB which these guys see, but is plainly not seen by the market and a lot of small investors (yet).
OXB's LentiVector and AAV (TetraVecta™ and inAAVate™) are already market leading. What if a combo with ArcticZymes' tech makes them the no-brainer choice in an exploding market? That would be very good for both companies. |
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