I suspect Mr Buffet publicly moving some pretty large shareholdings into cash hasn't helped much either.
Unfortunately this is one of the many things under the heading "what can you do?". You can sell and perhaps avoid a fall, but then also risk missing out on any rises which may happen for various reasons.
If the company is sound then over the long term simply holding on will usually see you right.
There is of course Sod's 3rd law here (aka the curse of OXB) which states that if if possible, any long awaited pivotal news will be released on a day when the market goes into meltdown - meaning nobody notices.
I suppose they have the interims for a recap if nothing else. |
 Indeed.World markets are in retreat and macro considerations predominate over stock specifics.OXB should hold up ‘relatively217; well in such a climate but don’t expect to make money!Reassuringly,OXB is moving towards profitability,has underperformed and has a premium shareholder list.
PS The futures are pointing to a sharply lower opening on Wall Street with some NASDAQ constituents preopen trading down 10%.The scary thing about markets nowadays is the scale of leverage.The selling triggers margin calls ,which in turn triggers selling,that results in a tsunami of selling.I was working in a US investment bank in 1987.Post Black Monday,we were advised by one senior chareacter in New York,that the selling that day was such that the computers had virtually taken control and that if they hadn’t of closed the market at 4PM,technically equity markets could have traded down to zero.Of course,that was near 40 years ago……things are much more precarious now!
The VIX is at its highest level since 2022. |
90k volume in the first hour and at one point 10% down?
At first glance it would be easy to think that perhaps the market isn't expecting good news, but this morning my monitor list is basically red, so I'm assuming a lot more to do with America? |
Demand for lentiviral vectors will continue to outstrip supply until the industry has access to more efficient, purpose-built manufacturing and bioprocessing technologies. |
Thanks again Josef.
I had a read of the ArcticZymes website the other night and it looks very good to me (an amateur) but there are a lot of good companies out there and we can't buy shares in them all.
OXB are committed to continuous improvement with their vectors (essential to keep / gain market share) and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if (for example) our 5th generation LentiVector will include ArcticZymes tech.
For Frank to become Chairman there must be something there which the technical people within OXB have already tried with our vectors and liked the result.
Will they tell us? I would guess so and maybe as soon as the interims. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Frank becoming chairman of such a (relatively) small company was part of a deal which we don't know about yet.
I've gone on about this before and taken a little flak for it, but I'm convinced Frank has big plans for OXB.
Why? Because he's 60+ and was happy to leave a great position with Rentschler Biopharma, to take a role in another country (appreciate he likely works remotely some of the time).
There's something at OXB which wasn't at RB and it brought him to us when he could have easily run to retirement at RB.
Similarly, Seb was VP of CDMO at Merck.
There is something at OXB which these guys see, but is plainly not seen by the market and a lot of small investors (yet).
OXB's LentiVector and AAV (TetraVecta™ and inAAVate™) are already market leading. What if a combo with ArcticZymes' tech makes them the no-brainer choice in an exploding market? That would be very good for both companies. |
You’re right. That is probably a dead end.
AZT is much focused around nucleases of different properties. The SAN family of products is being the star of the show.
I have given this chairman gig some thought and concluded it must be an industrial motivation. It is almost unheard of an acting ceo taking such a position. It is usually a retirement option. AZT is in a very good position financially after the pandemic, so it won’t take more time than the occasional zoom call.
OXB is not the only company with ties to AZT, Sanofi holds a piece of the company (less than 1%), and most of the larger pharma companies has at least tried SAN. As per now it has not materialized in approved products. Personally I just wait for it to happen. But there are more about AZT, an intention to launch a suite of RNA specific enzymes being one of them. So far a T7 RNA polymerase has materialized, but there are more maturing in the pipeline. |
Phil / PB,
Cautioning that I'm not a scientist, I'm going to say that "enzyme" covers a very large topic and whilst what you both found there might be similar to what ArcticZymes can do, it's not the way in which they do it (if you look at all the clues on their website).
There are some animations and such on that website, but not with any of the terms / keywords mentioned here. |
Great find PB. Sounds interesting. I got AI to summarise for me and those who get lost in some of the terminology:
Researchers are exploring ways to make gene therapies safer. One common method uses adeno-associated viruses (AAV) to deliver genes into the body, but this can cause side effects due to the body's immune response. Specifically, a part of the immune system called complement activation can be triggered by antibodies targeting the virus.
The scientists have discovered an enzyme called IceM that can break down a type of antibody called IgM, which plays a key role in this immune reaction. They then engineered a more powerful enzyme, IceMG, which can break down both IgM and another antibody type, IgG. This dual-action enzyme can prevent immune cells from being activated and reduce complement activation more effectively than an enzyme targeting only IgG.
In tests with animals, IceMG quickly and temporarily reduced levels of IgM and IgG in the blood. This reduction made the immune system less able to neutralize the AAV and activate the complement system. As a result, pre-treating animals with IceMG improved the effectiveness of AAV gene delivery.
These findings suggest that using IgM-cleaving enzymes like IceMG could help address various immune-related issues in AAV gene therapy, potentially improving its safety and effectiveness. This approach might also have broader uses, such as in organ transplants and treating autoimmune diseases. |
Here's me pretending I know things!I googled AAV and enzymes and found this.Ensconced in Crete prior to my G and T time.HTTps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525001624003058 |
Many thanks for the reply there Josef that's much appreciated and very interesting.
Frank's base salary at OXB is £610k, but if he meets certain performance targets his bonus and share options make it a very nice package. He also remains a paid advisor at RB where he was previously CEO.
Like you I very much doubt he is at ArcticZymes for that £40k and I suspect at some point we will learn about a deal or tie-up between the two companies. There are many possibilities for what that might mean, but I suspect any relationship would work out very well for both companies. |
The remunerstion is 500k NOK for the chairman. Just north of 40k EUR.
I don’t think it’s the money, but the Salt Active Nuclease suite of products that attracts him to Arcticzymes.
Could be other things too. AZT has a pipeline geared towards bio manufacturing. |
The recent BR aquasition is obviously dominating this stock (big drop to 353)
Its a classic BR chart and it won't end any time soon. |
Xoptimist,
I'm sure you are pretty much spot on with most of that, but I think it will be general business update rather than quarterly results.
Appreciate you have likely already spotted the same, but when OXB present at the interims and full year, they tend to release an RNS which is the genuine results for the accounting period, but then in their presentation on the webcast they tell us a lot of the state of play at just before the presentation too.
So, to give the latest example (the FY results presentation at the end of April), they told us the audited full year figures until the end of December for the '23 year, then the revenue backlog of £104m at 31 March 2024 and the number of clients / programmes as of April '24.
As our Q1 would be the end of March, they have already told us the order backlog and actually given us later data for customers / programmes.
What could a Q1 statement this week actually tell us which we don't already know apart from maybe the cash balance?
Similarly, if they do a Q1 statement but with order backlog / customers / programmes as of last week, then wouldn't that steal most of the thunder from the interims next month?
I think that might be one reason why they have seemingly dragged their feet - not anything about promise keeping, but how to time it all so it doesn't end up a bit of a farce.
The logical thing for me (dangerous territory I know) would be for the interims next month to simply do the H1 period and say that the post period update they normally include will now be in a quarterly statement during winter.
If you want my guess, then I would say a business update soon about the new commercial CAR-T. In the last presentation they stated that what they were presenting "Excludes a new order with a US-based client preparing for commercial launch (agreement announced in March 2024) which is excluded from this backlog figure.".
As that is something which we "know" we have (as opposed to guessing about malaria, etc.) then that for me would be the most likely subject for an update and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if there is no KPI table either - which will bother nobody if the new CAR-T partner details are as significant for OXB as I'm hoping. |
That's good to know Jasie, but I'd honestly never heard of the place. I thought it must have been a reference to something cultural which I'm the wrong age for, but the internet came to my rescue.
I've had a few people tell me over the years that the London Eye is pretty good for getting the aerial perspective of where everything is, but not that great if someone in your capsule decides that they don't like it on minute 1 of 45. |
First time for me there last night Harry and I can highly recommend it. Brilliant 360 views of the city and a great buzz. Unpretentious too! |
Given that quite a few shareholders have been in touch with the company and told an update is coming, i would be hugely surprised if we dont get this update next week.At the very least it will reconfirm the guidance which in itself will be helpful to confidence. Hopefully it will also give news on deals. If the latter then i also think we will see a significant move in the share price taking us into the 400s and setting us up nicely for the 500s when the interims are out in 7 weeks. Happy weekend to all |
#8422 Seriously, yes. Agreed. |
They say every day is a school day Jasie and today for me was the Walkie Talkie Sky Garden. Hope it's a good trip. |
We nearly always drop all the gains we have made in the week on a Friday Dom. We do seem undervalued but there is nothing that we can do about that. Never mind, the sun's up and I'm off for a few drinks in the Walkie Talkie Sky Garden! Have a pleasant weekend all! |
US tech selloff today might be a more accurate reason? |
Friday always used to be good in the old - pre-Covid - days, but with noone at work these days....... |
I'm sure we both have some owner's bias too Dom, but when you consider that a significantly bigger company is worth less after the pandemic than before it, well it shows just how far OXB has slipped away from fair value.
I totally agree with this notion that at some point there is an event which sends everything charging back the other way, but as we are currently 370p from a low of about 170p, I think maybe a better description is that the pendulum is already swinging back and that any good news from now on is just going to keep that pendulum going.
I'm sure that there will have been some profit taking already - particularly for those simply studying the trend rather than studying the company, but for me fair value is back in the FTSE250 and I still expect that this year.
A lot of the possibilities I type about are just that (e.g. the Serum agreement might be malaria and so on) but remember the big new CAR-T deal announced in March isn't a possibility, it's a signed contract.
(quote)
Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.
(unquote)
At some point, maybe the interims / maybe before, they have to tell us what that is worth and who it is for. It's potentially worth more than our supply contract for Novartis and of course is ongoing.
As you know, not covering costs (in OXB's case due to loss of AZ vaccine work, Homology leaving this business sector and general post-pandemic economic conditions) is not a good place and we have been punished.
Covering costs (there or there about this year) is a much better place and should have us back in the FTSE250.
Cumulatively adding big contracts after covering costs, especially multi-year commercial supply contracts, is happy days.
Seems a lower volume day so far today though. |
It is well known that I share Mr President's belief that impressive growth will be revealed whenever the company do share their status with us. Personal opinion - when we hear news it will kick off a quick 25% rise. Bring it on! |
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