New linked in post |
So 4 of you really think that this company doesn't do what it promises?
Pretty serious worry that one. I know where I'd be if I felt that way - and I certainly wouldn't have any money here. |
You got a really great presentation at the end of April listing the state of play and explaining why 3 year annual growth forecast was raised from 30 to 35%+.
Since then (at the AGM) they have confirmed everything still on track and IM recently gave then c£17m for new shares.
Today is the end of July. If nothing else you are due a great presentation on everything at the interims in less than 2 months. Likely something before.
It's not really a news blackout is it? But it is more or less normal for OXB. |
Fact is this company clearly does not do what it promises j, which is not a good position to bat from. There may be all sorts of excuses for withholding information but a statement that they are doing so for strategic reasons is then all they need to say. |
 If you want my 2 cents Phil then I would say the key word in all of that is "aiming".
All current indications are that they have a lot on and for whatever reason the RNS updates don't seem to be their highest priority at the moment. An example being the one yesterday which came over a month after the other company announced. So they either forgot or it's just not a priority for them.
I think the circumstantial evidence that they seem to have renewed the lease on Yarnton (dedicated Novartis facility) when previous advice at every report was that the lease was up in '24 and would have us consolidating in OxBox, indicates that even with the extra capacity in France and Boston, it makes sense to keep Yarnton and a lot of duplicated costs. If that it true then they have a lot of work.
Why they haven't said as much since the last (informal) update at the AGM, I don't know, but I do know that the forecast that they are tied to - i.e. the guidance that they have to revise / inform the market in good time of a material change, is the full year not the interims (as the interims effectively becomes the FY guidance with c80% certainty).
There are certain things here which they will announce on at some point. Two obvious examples being:-
The recent CAR-T commercial production deal for multiple myeloma. That could easily exceed what we earn from Novartis as it's a bigger market. Add another 8th or more to your revenue (I'm guessing) then keep that for the life of the drug and that is RNS worthy. Also I don't see how they can avoid naming the client. At the moment I imagine that is to keep things as smooth as possible with their current supplier, but once supply starts then there will be so many mentions of OXB in the QA/QC paper trail which goes in "the book" (mandated for FDA/EMA traceability) that it would be an impossible secret to keep. If it's a big name (obviously we think Jansen / J&J) then that's worth as much to OXB as when we signed with Novartis (a lot).
Similar argument applies for the Serum MSA (where we know the client but not the drug). Sooner or later we know what that is for (we have guessed malaria) but commercial supply of anything for 10 years is worth a fortune to OXB.
My many years of OXB watching tells me that although they might not be the best at communicating it, the situation is a good one. Whether we find that out at the interims or earlier remains to be seen. |
Well I suppose they could give us an update saying nothing has changed since our last update Maybe there was an expectation in April that a lot more progress would be made that hasn't happened yet |
—Question from analyst (April 29th)
You've provided a sort of an April update on the business development backlog but you've only given us a March update for the revenue backlog
—-Stuart (April 29th)
We can't until we in April. And as Sébastien said, I think that's a good word significant. We can't give any more details now. They will come in due course. As you know, we're committed to the communication plan of being far more frequent into the market now and give more frequent updates on our progress in terms of trading updates and you'll see that when we do our next trading update.
—investor relations
We are aiming to put out updates on a quarterly basis, two of these would be our regular full and year and half year financial results (normally put out in April and September each year).
Since this is the first year of doing this we do not have a fixed schedule yet for the two other updates, but we are aiming for one of them to be between now and September. Once we have a full year’s ‘cycle’ completed you should expect these updates to be more predictable.
Ergo, they set expectations. |
Expectations ? Only reason for an update if trading was materially higher or lower than previous guidance |
Ok, so no update. The high likelihood it will be September now, so why set expectations…? |
That news was out over a month ago from ArcticZymes. Do you think OXB just forgot?
I remember looking at the office location (up near the Artic Circle) and thinking that Frank's going to be a remote / homeworking Chairman. But then again, I guess that most of them (like Roch) are. |
I think I posted before boadicea, they can be used in viral vector production. |
Late posted RNS-
Oxford, UK - 30 July 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, announces that Dr. Frank Mathias, Chief Executive Officer, has been appointed as Chairman of the Board of Directors of ArcticZymes Technologies ASA.
Can anyone read any particular significance into this?
What they do -
"We harness our Arctic marine environment to discover cold-adapted enzymes, addressing industry challenges like high-salt and low-temperature efficiency. With a proven track record in molecular research, diagnostics, and therapeutics, we excel at leveraging our expertise with Extremozymes." |
takeiteasy,
As you will have worked out from many previous posts, when we had that regular run of news between the interims and the FY results last year, I had hoped that Frank was a new broom with regard to the relationship with small investors. I was particularly pleased with that idea as, with him coming from a successful unlisted company, I thought small investor relations might have been a bit of a mystery to him.
Six months later and I'm more of the mind now that the ABL deal was such a big thing for OXB that he simply made a concerted effort to keep the market (and therefore us) onside during the overrun period after the expected / forecast deal close date.
Since then it's been pretty much back to normal for OXB IR with good results presentations twice per year and the odd RNS in-between but nothing like a running commentary.
I don't think it's anything bad (in fact I'm convinced of that) and would remind you of last year when we went into the interims thinking that there was only the Cabaletta deal which was new and of any significance, at which point OXB told us that there was the Cabaletta extension + another 10.
If it helps at all, then remember that it's only really us sat in this "pot watching" position. Part of Roch's job as chairman is to brief the non-execs and keep the listed major shareholders onside. So they will all know how it's going in a general way (not names and contract values, but meeting / exceeding stated targets and how busy the sales dept. is etc.).
If we get through tomorrow (last day of July of course) without that "quarterly update" then I would forget about that becoming a thing until winter, simply because I think they realise it it will look daft making some kind of mini-quarterly presentation in August and then the full interim results in September.
On the other hand a simple business update or significant contract RNS can come any time. |
will we start getting some drift again with the impatient not waiiting for the "news" andmoving on- has been intriguing too watch each day recently :) |
News but not the news
Oxford Biomedica
Directorship notification under UK Listing Rule 6.4.9 (2)
Oxford, UK - 29 July 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, today announces that Leone Patterson, Non-Executive Director, will be leaving Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. on 14 August 2024. She has been appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Business and Financial Officer of Zymeworks Inc, a public company in Canada effective 1 September 2024. |
No worries, it is 25 (I remember us being promoted and demoted).
See |
I was working on the bottom 3. If its 25 up and 25 down you're right |
That number seems much too low. I just looked on the LSE list for the full FTSE350 and in 325th place is a property trust on £598m.
As I understand it, on the day of the review those above 325th at close who aren't already in the index push those out below who are?
If that review / reshuffle were today then £598m / 105,404,986 shares would be 568p or better for promotion? |
Based on current FTSE250 valuations, share price here in the region of 450 ought to secure entry |
If Blackrock have, that may be why they've added; they wouldn't want to be looking for stock at the same time as everyone else. |
I'm always hopeful red (as everyone knows) and we are expecting news (and have been for some time) but there may just be a reversion to fair value happening here as well.
CDMO companies on average should be "about" 5.5x sales for market cap.
For most of last year that should have been "about" 5.5 x c£90m which would have meant a share price of around £5 and for a lot of the early part of the year it was.
Then there was a sequence of unfortunate events - not least a big customer (Homology) basically exiting this business and leaving OXB with an impairment charge. The price dropped below thresholds / triggered market cap rules for US funds and it was horrible - whilst OXB remained fundamentally a very good business.
Now I would argue that OXB (like other specialist CDMO) is actually worth more than 5.5x sales, but that's not really too relevant atm (given where they found themselves).
We are coming up to the interims, where if Stuart and / or his replacement doesn't say 85%+ of £135m+ already booked in, then I will be very surprised.
£135m x 5.5 is around £7 per share and back in the FT250. We won't be the only people who have worked that one out. |
I'm not sure I actually like this: a healthy rise on the back of positive trading news is great, but this is unnerving! |
Will we break £4.00 today ????????? |
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