Late posted RNS-
Oxford, UK - 30 July 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, announces that Dr. Frank Mathias, Chief Executive Officer, has been appointed as Chairman of the Board of Directors of ArcticZymes Technologies ASA.
Can anyone read any particular significance into this?
What they do -
"We harness our Arctic marine environment to discover cold-adapted enzymes, addressing industry challenges like high-salt and low-temperature efficiency. With a proven track record in molecular research, diagnostics, and therapeutics, we excel at leveraging our expertise with Extremozymes." |
 takeiteasy,
As you will have worked out from many previous posts, when we had that regular run of news between the interims and the FY results last year, I had hoped that Frank was a new broom with regard to the relationship with small investors. I was particularly pleased with that idea as, with him coming from a successful unlisted company, I thought small investor relations might have been a bit of a mystery to him.
Six months later and I'm more of the mind now that the ABL deal was such a big thing for OXB that he simply made a concerted effort to keep the market (and therefore us) onside during the overrun period after the expected / forecast deal close date.
Since then it's been pretty much back to normal for OXB IR with good results presentations twice per year and the odd RNS in-between but nothing like a running commentary.
I don't think it's anything bad (in fact I'm convinced of that) and would remind you of last year when we went into the interims thinking that there was only the Cabaletta deal which was new and of any significance, at which point OXB told us that there was the Cabaletta extension + another 10.
If it helps at all, then remember that it's only really us sat in this "pot watching" position. Part of Roch's job as chairman is to brief the non-execs and keep the listed major shareholders onside. So they will all know how it's going in a general way (not names and contract values, but meeting / exceeding stated targets and how busy the sales dept. is etc.).
If we get through tomorrow (last day of July of course) without that "quarterly update" then I would forget about that becoming a thing until winter, simply because I think they realise it it will look daft making some kind of mini-quarterly presentation in August and then the full interim results in September.
On the other hand a simple business update or significant contract RNS can come any time. |
will we start getting some drift again with the impatient not waiiting for the "news" andmoving on- has been intriguing too watch each day recently :) |
News but not the news
Oxford Biomedica
Directorship notification under UK Listing Rule 6.4.9 (2)
Oxford, UK - 29 July 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, today announces that Leone Patterson, Non-Executive Director, will be leaving Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. on 14 August 2024. She has been appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Business and Financial Officer of Zymeworks Inc, a public company in Canada effective 1 September 2024. |
No worries, it is 25 (I remember us being promoted and demoted).
See |
I was working on the bottom 3. If its 25 up and 25 down you're right |
That number seems much too low. I just looked on the LSE list for the full FTSE350 and in 325th place is a property trust on £598m.
As I understand it, on the day of the review those above 325th at close who aren't already in the index push those out below who are?
If that review / reshuffle were today then £598m / 105,404,986 shares would be 568p or better for promotion? |
Based on current FTSE250 valuations, share price here in the region of 450 ought to secure entry |
If Blackrock have, that may be why they've added; they wouldn't want to be looking for stock at the same time as everyone else. |
I'm always hopeful red (as everyone knows) and we are expecting news (and have been for some time) but there may just be a reversion to fair value happening here as well.
CDMO companies on average should be "about" 5.5x sales for market cap.
For most of last year that should have been "about" 5.5 x c£90m which would have meant a share price of around £5 and for a lot of the early part of the year it was.
Then there was a sequence of unfortunate events - not least a big customer (Homology) basically exiting this business and leaving OXB with an impairment charge. The price dropped below thresholds / triggered market cap rules for US funds and it was horrible - whilst OXB remained fundamentally a very good business.
Now I would argue that OXB (like other specialist CDMO) is actually worth more than 5.5x sales, but that's not really too relevant atm (given where they found themselves).
We are coming up to the interims, where if Stuart and / or his replacement doesn't say 85%+ of £135m+ already booked in, then I will be very surprised.
£135m x 5.5 is around £7 per share and back in the FT250. We won't be the only people who have worked that one out. |
I'm not sure I actually like this: a healthy rise on the back of positive trading news is great, but this is unnerving! |
Will we break £4.00 today ????????? |
There's news coming here, I can smell it |
Quick counterpoint - think back to last year when the institutions (2 in particular) started selling (basically forced selling under their own fund rules).
2nd August last year 433p and 6 weeks later 244p. OXB said nothing.
By the end of November we were less than 170p and that was following a pretty astounding interims presentation of new work / new customers and IM selling us ABL at cost for shares printed at a huge premium to market price.
QED I wouldn't expect them to say anything about the share price moving up 10% as it's still well below what a smaller company with nothing like our current FY forecast was trading on prior to that August drop.
There are only a few (current) things which we all know well:-
None of the insiders bought after the results which for OXB suggests they couldn't.
When they stopped reporting new work wins they promised to regularly update a KPI table which they haven't.
They have told investors (via the IR email link) that they plan on some kind of quarterly update but haven't.
We know they have a commercial CAR-T deal for myeloma which is most likely to be for Jansen / J&J and if so would be a really big thing for OXB, but we have heard no detail since.
We know we have a signed framework with Serum and that they are lead contractor on the R21 malaria vaccine which is now finally in roll-out, but we don't know if that is what our MSA deal is for. It seems the most likely contender but we just don't know. Again that would be a big thing for OXB.
It could also literally be anything else, not forgetting that the richest listed company in Europe already owns 12% of OXB and has said that they intend to buy up speciality service companies to the pharma industry.
I strongly suspect that the last item there is what Blackrock have latched onto, because it's odds on free money for them in exchange for an unknown wait. |
that is exactly what I have been wondering- if we get into 410-450 territory I would suspect BOD will be under much scrutiny to start updating us all :) |
The BOD clearly have no wish to make any announcements at the present time. However they should now be considering their options if events (e.g. ~10% rise today or evidence of leak) result in formal request for rns. |
Breaking out |
CRISP / CAR-T synergy HTTps://crisprmedicinenews.com/news/crispr-enhances-car-t-cell-cancer-therapies/ |
:)
You know my thoughts on the eventual end of OXB for us as ordinary shareholders - and it isn't via bad news - it's some future point in time with Novo ringing around Serum, BlackRock, Vulpes, etc. and asking what it will cost.
Remember the last 2 business updates with OXB increased the forecast (e.g. 30+ to 35+ percent CAGR over the next 3 years) so it's really unlikely to be shock bad news. Something horrible and they would tell you with an RNS during the day. I have a feeling that the price rise on Friday was because the RNS for tomorrow morning has been signed off and submitted now, but I hope that system is much more secure than I'm hinting at. |
Harry,I'm sure we won't be the only ones checking in at 7am to see if we are going to be put out of our misery. |
Changes of Personnel at board level ? |
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